Excess mortality

Significant excess mortality occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain in April 2020 (actual deaths in red, expected deaths in black, with the confidence band in gray). Representation in calendar days , beginning of Jan. 2018 - end of April 2020. Clearly visible: two flu waves at the beginning of the year

Excess mortality (also: excess mortality ) denotes in demography , but also in other specialist areas, an increased death rate ( mortality ) compared to empirical evidence or expected values .

On the one hand, this comparison is made with reference to an arbitrarily delimited period of time . A calendar day , a calendar week , a calendar month or a calendar year are common . The comparison values are then either mean values from the past or base values calculated from these using an adjustment procedure, which are expected as a minimum value. The former suggests positive and negative comparative results alike. The latter usually prevents falling below the reference value; so there are usually positive comparative results, which is why the term sub- mortality is unusual in demography, although it is obvious and is used occasionally.

On the other hand, the comparison is made with reference to a specific population group. The formation of age cohorts and spatial or regional delimitations are common, but any further characteristics can be used. The base size is usually the total population. In therapy studies, for example, one compares a treatment group with a control group instead .

Examples of population groups that show excess mortality compared to the expected mortality for the population average are the overweight , smokers and the sick . This is accompanied by a lower life expectancy of these population groups calculated using mortality tables . When comparing the death rates of the groups, the increasing probability of death with age is taken into account. The higher mortality rate of older people per se is not referred to as excess mortality, whereas the higher mortality rate of men compared with that of women is.

Examples of time periods used are an “ influenza season” or extreme weather conditions such as the 2003 heat wave in Europe .

Both variants of the reference are also used in combined form. For example, by comparing excess mortality over different countries and years, one tries to gain knowledge about the influence of the factors under consideration on mortality.

Since the end of the 2000s, Euromomo has been continuously and promptly monitoring excess mortality in large parts of Europe in 18 European countries, the four parts of the United Kingdom and two German federal states. The study center at the Statens Serum Institute in Copenhagen publishes a weekly status report as well as scientific articles. Euromomo works with basic values adjusted in the form of a sinusoidal curve as a reference value, calls this "baseline" and assumes that infections in winter and heat waves in summer regularly influence them in such a way that this model leads to an annual excess of deaths, i.e. excess mortality.

Web links

Wiktionary: excess mortality - explanations of meanings, word origins, synonyms, translations

Euromomo European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action
Ongoing acquisition of deaths at the Federal Statistical Office of Switzerland
Working group influenza at the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) in Germany
Diagnostic influenza network Austria of MedUni Vienna in Austria
Covid-19: Significant increase in deaths in March. ASTAT examines the effects of COVID-19 on overall mortality in South Tyrol . In: Südtirol News. Athesia Druck GmbH , May 25, 2020, accessed on July 12, 2020 .

Individual evidence

^ Office for Official Publications of the European Communities (ed.): Atlas on mortality in the European Union . Chapter 7 Typologies of Mortality by Cause of Death. 2002, ISBN 92-894-3726-X ( europa.eu [PDF; accessed June 28, 2020]).
↑ Elisabeth Gaber, collaboration with Manfred Wildner : Mortality, causes of death and regional differences . Ed .: Robert Koch Institute and Federal Statistical Office . 2011, ISBN 978-3-89606-211-6 ( gbe-bund.de [PDF; accessed June 27, 2020]).
↑ Sarah Nowotny: Poland records an "undermortality". In the middle of the corona pandemic. Swiss television , May 21, 2020, accessed on June 28, 2020 .
↑ Gerhard Trott, Bielefeld University : The effect of age on excess mortality in the case of obesity. Science Information Service , April 29, 1999, accessed June 27, 2020 .
^ Reports and scientific publications. List of published reports on excess mortality. Euromomo , accessed June 27, 2020 .
↑ https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/ Methods. Explanation of the method. Euromomo , accessed June 28, 2020 .

[eu2002-1] Office for Official Publications of the European Communities (ed.): Atlas on mortality in the European Union . Chapter 7 Typologies of Mortality by Cause of Death. 2002, ISBN 92-894-3726-X ( europa.eu [PDF; accessed June 28, 2020]).

[rki-2] Elisabeth Gaber, collaboration with Manfred Wildner : Mortality, causes of death and regional differences . Ed .: Robert Koch Institute and Federal Statistical Office . 2011, ISBN 978-3-89606-211-6 ( gbe-bund.de [PDF; accessed June 27, 2020]).

[srf-3] Sarah Nowotny: Poland records an "undermortality". In the middle of the corona pandemic. Swiss television , May 21, 2020, accessed on June 28, 2020 .

[bielefeld-4] Gerhard Trott, Bielefeld University : The effect of age on excess mortality in the case of obesity. Science Information Service , April 29, 1999, accessed June 27, 2020 .

[liste-5] Reports and scientific publications. List of published reports on excess mortality. Euromomo , accessed June 27, 2020 .

[methods-6] ttps://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/ Methods. Explanation of the method. Euromomo , accessed June 28, 2020 .