Funding maximum
As production peak ( English hubbert peak ) of time is referred to, in which the feed rate of a raw material (eg. As oil field or mine) reaches its absolute maximum. Once the maximum has been reached, the funding is irrevocably reduced. According to Hubbert, growth follows a curve roughly oriented towards a logistic distribution and declines exponentially. The descent of the sloping branch is somewhat gentler than the ascent thanks to new discoveries and new technologies. Well-known examples of funding maxima are u. a. for the production of goods relevant oil production maximum (peak oil) and the u. a. for the nutrition of the world population relevant maximum phosphorus production (peak phosphorus) .
history
The concept presented by the petroleum expert Marion King Hubbert at a meeting of the American Petroleum Institute in 1956 caused a sensation because his prediction of the peak of the American oil fields came about in the early 1970s. In the case of global funding, he had assumed funding rates that were significantly too low. Production maxima were also observed for individual regions (e.g. for the USA 1971). The question of the global maximum oil production ( peak oil ) is the subject of intense public debate . In 1956, Hubbert had also calculated the production maxima for oil, gas and coal using the data at that time. Hubbert himself assumed that the global oil production peak would occur around 2010 and considered nuclear and solar energy to be possible and sensible alternatives. According to an overview study by Adam Brandts, different countries and oil fields were later accurately described with his model and its various variants.
The industry information service Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) criticizes Hubbert's model and the predictions derived from it. Accordingly, Hubbert's methodology fails in several ways. Hubbert did not include resource growth and did not take into account new technologies as well as economic and geopolitical factors in his model. Currently, the maximum production including deposits that go beyond conventional crude oil has not yet been reached. A peak in funding including these resources is not to be expected, but a multi-year plateau. However, CERA is criticizing a model that is over 50 years old. Current researchers do incorporate relevant factors into their models. The International Energy Agency believes that low-cost conventional crude oil will peak in production as early as 2006.
Global maximum production of individual fossil fuels
In 1956, M. King Hubbert estimated the world maximum for coal for the year 2150. The Energy Watch Group believed that the coal peak had already been reached in the first half of the 21st century. The US Energy Information Administration believes further growth in gas and coal production is possible through 2030.
The advances in hydraulic fracturing have significantly increased the range and reserve estimates, especially for natural gas, in a few years, contrary to the corresponding predictions.
More peaks
The raw material costs make up a significantly lower (barely 10% compared to 77% or 93% for coal and gas) share of the operating costs for nuclear reactors than for fossil reactors. In addition to uranium , thorium ores can also be used for nuclear power plants. It is true that uranium is only available for a few decades at current world market prices. However, sufficient uranium deposits are known that are worth mining in the event of moderate price increases. This is why most researchers, including Hubbert, consider the supply of raw materials for nuclear power plants to be secure for several centuries.
Hubbert peaks were also calculated for clean drinking water and the food sector. Global fishing has declined since the late 1980s. But the production from fish farms has increased somewhat.
swell
- ↑ Marion King Hubbert : Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels 'Drilling and Production Practice' (Spring Meeting of the Southern District. Division of Production. American Petroleum Institute) Archived from the original on May 27, 2008. Info: The archive link was automatically inserted and not yet checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. (PDF) In: Shell Development Company . , San Antonio, Texas June 1956, pp. 22-27. Retrieved April 18, 2008.
- ^ Adam R. Brandt: Testing Hubbert . (PDF) In: Elsevier (Ed.): Energy Policy . 35, No. 5, May 2007, pp. 3074-3088. doi : 10.1016 / j.enpol.2006.11.004 .
- ^ Society of petroleum engineers: guest editorial
- ↑ Ibrahim Sami Nashawi, Adel Malallah, Mohammed Al-Bisharah: Forecasting World Crude Oil Production Using Multicyclic Hubbert Model. In: Energy & Fuels. 24, 2010, p. 1788, doi: 10.1021 / ef901240p : “ Over the years, accurate prediction of oil production was confronted by fluctuating ecological, economical, and political factors, which imposed many restrictions on its exploration, transportation, and supply and demand . The objective of this study is to develop a forecasting model to predict world crude oil supply with better accuracy than the existing models. Even though our approach originates from Hubbert model, it overcomes the limitations and restrictions associated with the original Hubbert model. ”
- ↑ M. King Hubbert: Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels 'Drilling and Production Practice' (PDF; 2.7 MB) American Petroleum Institute. June 1956. Archived from the original on May 27, 2008. Info: The archive link was automatically inserted and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. Retrieved April 18, 2008.
- ^ Richard Heinberg: Peak coal: sooner than you think . Energy Bulletin. May 21, 2007. Archived from the original on May 22, 2008. Retrieved June 6, 2008.
- ↑ US Energy Information Administration: Table 5. World natural gas production by region and country, 2005-2030, accessed December 7, 2008
- ^ US Energy Information Administration: International Energy Outlook 2008 , accessed January 25, 2009
- ^ Reg Watson, Daniel Pauly: Systematic distortions in world fisheries catch trends. In: Nature. 414, pp. 534-536, doi: 10.1038 / 35107050 . ( soest.hawaii.edu PDF; 403 kB)
