National Intelligence Estimate

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A National Intelligence Estimate ( NIE ) is an intelligence dossier that matched analyzes, forecasts, judgments and background information of the sixteen US intelligence services for the National Security contains and the executive will be submitted on request. It is drawn up by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and is strictly confidential .

Creation of a NIE

Requirement

In addition to the President of the United States, high-ranking members of the executive branch, for example direct employees of the President, from the Executive Office of the President of the United States or the ministries, as well as selected members of the House of Representatives , the Senate and the United States , as well as selected members of the House of Representatives , are required to commission an intelligence dossier prepared by the NIC of the top military ranks. Each of these requests must be personally approved by the Director of National Intelligence (DNI).

Creation

The NIC, a department which has existed since 1973 and has around twelve analysts, acts as the superordinate analytical organ of the secret services. Until 2005 the NIC was subordinate to the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), today this task is taken over by the DNI. The NIC is constantly collecting information from the various secret services in order to assess the national security situation. If they receive the order to create an NIE, the secret services concerned are asked for information and assessment of the topic. The twelve institutions that contribute the basic knowledge for the preparation of the dossier include the various secret services, the three armed forces and various ministries. In addition, information from external scientific sources and non-governmental institutions can be incorporated into the assessment.

Approval

After the dossier has been prepared, it is forwarded to the National Foreign Intelligence Board (NFIB), which consists of the twelve directors of the most important intelligence agencies. If this committee approves and resolves the report, it will be sent to the client immediately. The entire process of creating a NIE takes between three and six months, in urgent cases the creation can be accelerated within three weeks.

Known NIEs

A NIE was first created in 1950 by the Office of National Estimates .

In 2002, a NIE (NIE 2002-16HC) was drawn up that assessed Iraq as a country that would be able to carry out a nuclear strike within a very short time. George W. Bush based his decision on the Iraq war on this NIE, among other things.

In November 2007 NIE was created in which the assessment is that Iran with high confidence ( high confidence ) his nuclear weapons program had stopped in autumn 2003 and with moderate confidence it since mid-2007 have not been resumed.

criticism

The NIE's assessment of Iraq from 2002 could not be confirmed either by the American troops or by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) after the end of the war .

literature

  • Daniel D. Pegarkov: National Security Issues , Nova Publishers, 2006, ISBN 1600211356

Web links

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ Key Judgments of the NIE 2002-16HC from the website of the Federation of American Scientists (in English)
  2. ↑ Original text of the declassified NIE 2002-16HC (in English; PDF file; 782 kB)
  3. ↑ Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities. Archived from the original on 20120505 ; accessed on February 15, 2019 (English, press release on Iran-NIE).
  4. ^ Foundation Science and Politics: Peter Rudolf: The "National Intelligence Estimate" on Iranian nuclear policy - background, controversy, consequences. In: SWP-Aktuell 2008 / A of January 2, 2008, available as PDF