Compression thesis
According to the compression thesis , the morbidity decreases with increasing life expectancy. The time span between the age at the first outbreak of chronic irreversible disease and the later time of death becomes shorter. Primary prevention is the basis for delaying the outbreak of chronic morbidity and thus for compression. The increasing medical possibilities are excluded, however, and therefore in all countries, regardless of the insurance system, without cost-containment measures, expenditure on health increases faster than economic performance (measured in terms of gross domestic product). This is how the medicalization thesis workson the other hand, assume that overall morbidity will increase. Curative medicine is becoming increasingly successful in getting the complications associated with chronic diseases under control, i.e. in prolonging life without being able to stop the progression of the actual disease. This expands the duration of the morbidity.
The compression thesis thus forms the opposite pole to the medicalization thesis. Here, too, the problem of demographic aging forms the starting point, which is surpassed in importance by the increasing medical possibilities.
In contrast to the medicalization thesis, it is assumed with regard to the development of the costs of health services that people do not become continuously sicker with increasing age. The years of life of increased morbidity have nothing to do with absolute age, but rather with the relative proximity to death. This would mean a gain in "healthy years".
In a study for private health insurers, Frank Niehaus came to the conclusion that the disease did not compress before death. Rather, the data from the past few years show a growing demand for medical services in all age groups. Combined with the increase in people of advanced age, there is a double demand effect.