United Nations Global Policy Model
The United Nations Global Policy Model (GPM) is a tool for analyzing global macroeconomic interactions. The model was developed by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) of the UN Secretariat . It is designed to analyze the macroeconomic effects of exogenous shocks , shocks of confidence in the market, e.g. As by the bursting of speculative bubbles , the impact of changes in the international regulation of trade and finance and the transfer effect to simulate far-reaching changes in the economic policy in major economies to countries and regions.
GPM simulations of the UN
- Reducing macroeconomic imbalances
It was simulated what effects it would have if the countries with current account deficits aimed for higher savings rates and countries with current account surpluses aimed for higher consumption rates. The result of the simulation was that both groups of countries could achieve higher economic growth. In addition, the risk of major financial and economic crises would be much lower.
According to the simulation in the alternative scenario, without reducing the savings rate via the exchange rate mechanism, Europe would be exposed to a permanent deterioration in competitiveness with falling export opportunities and increasing imports. A policy of domestic devaluation could achieve current account surpluses in the long term, but only low economic growth would be possible in the long term.
- Low emission high growth scenario
The low emission high growth scenario simulates a development that aims to reconcile environmental protection and the catching-up development of developing and emerging countries.
Web link
Individual evidence
- ^ United Nations , Global Modeling Tools
- ↑ John Malcolm Dowling, Pradumna Bickram Rana, Asia and the Global Economic Crisis: Challenges in a Financially Integrated World , Palgrave Macmillan, 2010, ISBN 9780230307025 , p. 126 ff
- ^ UN Secretariat , A Coordiunated Policy Scenario for Job Creation and Stronger Global Growth with Medium Term Reduction of Public Debt Ratios and Benign Global Rebalancing , May 9, 2012
- ↑ UN Secretariat , Francis Cripps, Alex Izurieta, Rob Vos, Global Policy Model Underlying concepts and empirical illustrations , October 2010, p. 27
- ↑ Frank Ackerman, Richard Kozul-Wright, Rob Vos, Climate Protection and Development , Bloomsbury Academic, 2012, ISBN 9781780931715 , page 22