Population development of Ilmenau
This article shows the population development of Ilmenau .
Historical development
The population of Ilmenau fluctuated in the time between its foundation and the town fire of 1752 between about 400 and about 1500. There were several blooming phases of mining, in which the number increased, but on the other hand there were also epidemics , wars and town fires that reduced the population dropped sharply.
When industrialization began in Ilmenau at the time of the founding of the empire (1871) and the railway connection (1879) , the number of inhabitants quadrupled by the beginning of the First World War . The newcomers were mainly farmers from the eastern regions, Mecklenburg and Westphalia as well as glassmakers from the Thuringian area and from the Westerwald. They found a job in the numerous glass and porcelain factories in Ilmenau. A second wave of immigration began in the late 1970s due to the establishment of industrial areas in the northeast of the city. These people found work in the large-scale combines and lived in the new development areas of Stollen and Pörlitzer Höhe . They came mainly from the villages of the Thuringian Forest, in which the glassworks were closed parallel to the establishment of the Ilmenau industrial area, but also from the densely populated old industrial regions of central Germany (Leipzig-Halle area), eastern Thuringia and western Saxony.
Current development
After reunification , the population initially fell sharply, but then stabilized again. Subsequently, the demographic change became noticeable with a rising average age and birth deficit, while the migration situation has eased and this balance is relatively balanced. With today's territorial status (including the incorporations from 1994), 31,660 inhabitants lived in Ilmenau on December 31, 1989. In 2010 there were 26,022 inhabitants, so the decrease since then has been 17.8% (14.2% between 1989 and 2000 alone).
On December 31, 2011, 1,323 foreigners (5.16%) lived in Ilmenau. The regions of origin differ greatly from the national German average: the largest groups are the Chinese (186), followed by the Russians (127), the Syrians (97), the Ukrainians (79) and the Vietnamese (70). While the Chinese and Syrians mainly work as students at the Technical University, the Vietnamese immigrated as contract workers during the GDR era. Russians and Ukrainians came to Ilmenau mainly in the 1990s.
In 2010 the population consisted of 9.73% under 15-year-olds, 67.98% 15- to 65-year-olds and 22.30% over 65-year-olds. In 2000, these values were 12.06%, 72.16% and 15.78%.
Population projections
Population forecasts depend on a large number of factors, making them difficult to make and subject to a certain error rate. Developments that are already foreseeable are an increasing aging of the population as well as an increasing birth deficit in the medium term on the side of natural population development. This is caused because the number of women of childbearing age will decrease relatively sharply in the future when the low-birth cohorts of the 1990s start to start a family. This creates a “second bend in the birth” around 2020 as a result of the first bend in the birth immediately after the fall of the Wall in 1990. On the other hand, this effect is stretched over time, since the mothers are on average getting older at birth.
The side of the spatial population development (migration) is difficult to predict. In addition to the overall economic development on site, in Germany and in the migrants' countries of origin, the state migration policy and local influences are also decisive, rapidly changing factors. In Ilmenau, the university is the most important local factor (its student body makes up almost 25% of the total population); the more attractive it is, the more young people are drawn to the city. Another local factor is the interaction with the immediate surrounding area. The villages of the Thuringian Forest have been massively affected by demographic change and aging for decades, so that not only the population there, but also infrastructural development (shops, supply of services, local public transport) is declining. Older people who are no longer mobile find it difficult to meet their needs there, so that moving to the next city will make their everyday life much easier or even necessary. This results in a further group of potential future immigrants for the city of Ilmenau.
The main group of migrants are young people between the ages of 18 and 25. The number of them in Ilmenau has decreased due to the birth break after the fall of the Wall, so that the pressure to emigrate (compared to the time around the turn of the millennium) has decreased significantly, which lowers the number of people moving away and thus ensures a more positive migration balance. In 2009, net migration reached the tipping point into positive territory and there is a likelihood that it will be sustainable development.
Overall, the population of Ilmenau will remain the same or decrease slightly over the next few years. The Thuringian State Office for Statistics predicts 24,349 inhabitants for 2020, which corresponds to a decrease of 6.3% compared to the base year 2009. The Bertelsmann Foundation predicts 23,540 inhabitants for 2020, which corresponds to a decrease of 9.3% compared to the base year 2009. In 2012 it was already becoming apparent that these forecasts could be too pessimistic. Due to the extensive incorporation in 2018 and 2019, the population rose to over 38,000, making Ilmenau one of the ten largest cities in Thuringia .
Tabular representation
Source since 1994: Thuringian State Office for Statistics
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Birth and migration balance
Source: Thuringian State Office for Statistics
| year | Born died | Birth balance | Moving in / out | Migration balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 150/298 | −148 | 872/1107 | −235 |
| 1995 | 156/310 | −154 | 1053/1284 | −231 |
| 1996 | 174/324 | −150 | 1083/1347 | −264 |
| 1997 | 193/286 | −93 | 1194/1211 | −17 |
| 1998 | 190/302 | −112 | 1133/1311 | −178 |
| 1999 | 198/277 | −79 | 1391/1488 | −97 |
| 2000 | 171/312 | −141 | 1301/1508 | −207 |
| 2001 | 193/292 | −99 | 1644/1597 | +47 |
| 2002 | 158/293 | −135 | 1709/1449 | +260 |
| 2003 | 178/262 | −84 | 1635/1643 | −8 |
| 2004 | 167/256 | −89 | 1620/1856 | −236 |
| 2005 | 206/203 | +3 | 1633/1735 | −102 |
| 2006 | 173/260 | -87 | 1700/1811 | -111 |
| 2007 | 206/285 | -79 | 1682/1836 | -154 |
| 2008 | 201/267 | -66 | 1671/1930 | -259 |
| 2009 | 207/293 | -86 | 1727/1649 | +78 |
| 2010 | 206/277 | -71 | 1747/1631 | +116 |
| 2011 | 181/291 | −110 | 1848/1757 | +91 |
| 2012 | 196/328 | −132 | 1826/1752 | +74 |
| 2013 | 179/329 | −150 | 1812/1793 | +19 |
| 2014 | 189/307 | −118 | 1890/1795 | +95 |
| 2015 | 219/329 | −110 | 2137/1795 | +342 |
| 2016 | 209/341 | −132 | 2058/2119 | −61 |
| 2017 | 191/336 | −145 | 2042/1886 | +176 |
| 2018 | 295/487 | −192 | 2275/1995 | +280 |
| 2019 | 281/527 | -246 | 2268/2141 | +127 |
See also
Individual evidence
- ↑ TLUG, Environment regional
- ↑ Foreigners statistics as of December 31, 2011
- ↑ Age group statistics, TLS
- ↑ TLS population forecast
- ↑ Guide to the commune of the Bertelsmann Foundation ( Memento of the original from June 7, 2012 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link has been inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice.
- ↑ Update of the population, TLS
- ↑ Births and Deaths, TLS
- ↑ Wanderings, TLS
