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+#REDIRECT [[Malthusianism]] {{R from merge}}
-{{Blacklisted-links|1=
-*http://www.econlib.org/library/Malthus/malPlong.html
-*:''Triggered by <code>\beconlib\.org\b</code> on the local blacklist''|bot=Cyberbot II|invisible=true}}
-[[File:Malthus PL en.svg|thumb|right|200px|The Malthusian catastrophe simplistically illustrated]]
-[[Image:World-Population-1800-2100.svg|thumb|200px|World population from 1800 to 2100, based on [https://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf UN 2004 projections] (red, orange, green) and [https://www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldhis.html US Census Bureau historical estimates] (black)]]
-A '''Malthusian catastrophe''' (also known as '''Malthusian check''', '''Malthusian crisis''', '''Malthusian spectre''' or '''Malthusian crunch''') occurs when [[population growth]] outpaces [[agriculture|agricultural]] [[Production (economics)|production]].
-==Thomas Malthus==
-In 1798, [[Thomas Robert Malthus|Thomas Malthus]] wrote:
-{{quote|Famine seems to be the last, the most dreadful resource of nature. The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race. The vices of mankind are active and able ministers of depopulation. They are the precursors in the great army of destruction, and often finish the dreadful work themselves. But should they fail in this war of extermination, sickly seasons, epidemics, pestilence, and plague advance in terrific array, and sweep off their thousands and tens of thousands. Should success be still incomplete, gigantic inevitable famine stalks in the rear, and with one mighty blow levels the population with the food of the world.|Thomas Malthus, 1798. ''[[An Essay on the Principle of Population]]''. Chapter VII, p. 61<ref name="Oxford World's Classics reprint">Oxford World's Classics reprint</ref>}}
-The dramatic imagery of the final sentence should not obscure the force of the earlier lines. Malthus is suggesting that the growth of population need not be restricted by plague or famine; more quotidian pressures work more quietly to slow population growth.
-== Preventive vs. positive ==
-Malthus proposed two kinds of population checks: preventive and positive.
-A preventive check is a conscious decision to delay marriage or abstain from procreation based on a lack of resources.<ref name=":0">{{Cite web|url=http://www.esp.org/books/malthus/population/malthus.pdf|title=An Essay on The Principle of Population|last=Malthus|first=Thomas Robert|date=1798|website=Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project|access-date=29 March 2018}}</ref> Malthus argued that man is incapable of ignoring the consequences of uncontrolled population growth, and would intentionally avoid contributing to it.<ref name=":0" /> According to Malthus, a positive check is any event or circumstance that shortens the human life span. The primary examples of this are [[war]], [[epidemic|plague]] and [[famine]].<ref name=":0" /> However, poor health and economic conditions are also considered instances of positive checks.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Simkins|first=Charles|date=2001|title=Can South Africa Avoid a Malthusian Positive Check?|jstor=20027682|journal=Daedalus|volume=130|issue=1|pages=123–150|pmid=19068951}}</ref>
-==Neo-Malthusian theory==<!-- This section is linked from [[Demographic transition]] -->
-[[File:Wheat yields in Least Developed Countries.svg|thumb|right|200px|Wheat yields in developing countries since 1961, in kg/[[hectare|ha]]. The steep rise in crop yields in the U.S. began in the 1940s. The percentage of growth was fastest in the early rapid growth stage. In developing countries maize yields are still rapidly rising.<ref>{{Cite journal
-| last1 = Fischer
-| first1 =R. A.
-| last2 =Byerlee
-| first2 =Eric
-| last3 =Edmeades
-| first3 =E. O.
-| author1-link =
-| title = Can Technology Deliver on the Yield Challenge to 2050
-| year =
-|journal=Expert Meeting on How to Feed the World
-|issue=
-|pages=12
-|publisher= Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
-| url = ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/012/ak977e/ak977e00.pdf
-}}</ref>]]
-After [[World War II]], [[mechanized agriculture]] produced a dramatic increase in productivity of agriculture and the [[Green Revolution]] greatly increased crop yields, expanding the world's food supply while lowering food prices. In response, the growth rate of the world's population accelerated rapidly, resulting in predictions by [[Paul R. Ehrlich]], Simon Hopkins,<ref>{{cite book|last = Hopkins|first = Simon|title = A Systematic Foray into the Future|publisher = Barker Books|year = 1966|pages = 513–69}}
-</ref> and many others of an imminent Malthusian catastrophe. However, populations of most developed countries grew slowly enough to be outpaced by gains in productivity.
-By the early 21st century, many technologically-developed countries had passed through the [[demographic transition]], a complex social development encompassing a drop in [[total fertility rate]]s in response to various [[fertility factor (demography)|fertility factors]], including lower [[infant mortality]], increased [[urbanization]], and a wider availability of effective [[birth control]].
-[[File:Wars-Long-Run-military-civilian-fatalities.png|thumb|Global deaths in conflicts since the year 1400]]
-On the assumption that the [[demographic transition]] is now spreading from the developed countries to [[less developed countries]], the [[United Nations Population Fund]] estimates that human population may peak in the late 21st century rather than continue to grow until it has exhausted available resources.<ref name="UN">{{cite web|url=https://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf|title=2004 UN Population Projections, 2004.}}</ref>
-Historians have estimated the total human population back to 10,000 BC.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldhis.html|title=Historical Estimates of World Population, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2006.|url-status=dead|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20131013110506/http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldhis.html|archivedate=2013-10-13}}</ref> The figure on the right shows the trend of total population from 1800 to 2005, and from there in three projections out to 2100 (low, medium, and high).<ref name="UN"/> The United Nations population projections out to 2100 (the red, orange, and green lines) show a possible peak in the world's population occurring by 2040 in the first scenario, and by 2100 in the second scenario, and never ending growth in the third.
-[[Image:World population growth rates 1800-2005.png|thumb|right|200px|A chart of estimated annual growth rates in world population, 1800–2005. Rates before 1950 are annualized historical estimates from the [https://www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldhis.html US Census Bureau]. Red = USCB projections to 2025.]]
-The graph of annual growth rates in world population (outlined in yellow) shows exponential growth at varying rates. Any point above zero shows exponential growth. A constant exponential growth would be a horizontal straight line at any height above 0. A stable population has a growth rate of 0. Population decline would take the curve below the chart into the yellow border. The hump in the graph began about 1920, peaked in the mid-1960s, and for the last 40 years the rate of exponential growth has been steadily declining. The downward direction of the curve does not mean that the population is declining, only that it is growing less quickly. The sharp fluctuation between 1959 and 1960 was due to the combined effects of the [[Great Leap Forward]] and a natural disaster in China.<ref name="USCB">{{cite web|url=https://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/|title=International Data Base}}</ref> Also visible on this graph are the effects of the [[Great Depression]], the two world wars, and possibly also the [[1918 flu pandemic]].
-Short-term trends, even on the scale of decades or centuries, cannot prove or disprove the existence of mechanisms promoting a Malthusian catastrophe over longer periods. However, due to the prosperity of a major fraction of the human population at the beginning of the 21st century, and the debatability{{citation needed|date=April 2017}} of the predictions for [[ecological collapse]] made by [[Paul R. Ehrlich]] in the 1960s and 1970s, some people, such as economist [[Julian Lincoln Simon|Julian L. Simon]], question its inevitability.<ref>Simon, Julian L, "[http://www.juliansimon.org/writings/Articles/REVOLUTI.txt More People, Greater Wealth, More Resources, Healthier Environment]", ''Economic Affairs: J. Inst. Econ. Affairs'', April 1994.</ref>
-[[Image:Food production per capita.svg|thumb|right|200px|Growth in food production has historically been greater than the population growth. Food per person increased since 1961. The graph runs up to slightly past 2010.<ref>Data source: http://faostat3.fao.org/download/Q/QI/E, see graph metadata for further details.</ref>]]
-A 2002 study<ref>[http://www.fao.org/english/newsroom/news/2002/7828-en.html World agriculture 2030: Global food production will exceed population growth] August 20, 2002.</ref> by the [[United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization|UN Food and Agriculture Organization]] predicts that world food production will be in excess of the needs of the human population by the year 2030; however, that source also states that hundreds of millions will remain hungry (presumably due to economic realities and political issues).
-A 2004 study by a group of prominent economists and ecologists, including [[Kenneth Arrow]] and Paul Ehrlich<ref>Arrow, K., P. Dasgupta, L. Goulder, G. Daily, P. Ehrlich, G. Heal, S. Levin, K. Mäler, S. Schneider, D. Starrett and B. Walker, "Are We Consuming Too Much" ''Journal of Economic Perspectives'', 18(3), 147–72, 2004.</ref> suggests that the central concerns regarding sustainability have shifted from population growth to the consumption/savings ratio, due to shifts in population growth rates since the 1970s. Empirical estimates show that public policy (taxes or the establishment of more complete property rights) can promote more efficient consumption and investment that are sustainable in an ecological sense; that is, given the current (relatively low) population growth rate, the Malthusian catastrophe can be avoided by either a shift in consumer preferences or public policy that induces a similar shift.
-A study conducted in 2009<ref>[http://www.fao.org/wsfs/forum2050/wsfs-background-documents/issues-briefs/en/ How to feed the world in 2050]</ref> said that food production will have to increase by 70% over the next 40 years, and food production in the developing world will need to double.<ref>[http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/35571/icode/ 2050: A third more mouths to feed]</ref>
-This is a result of the increasing population (world population will increase to 9.1 billion in 2050, where there are just 7.8 billion people today). Another issue is that the [[effects of global warming]] (floods, droughts, extreme weather events, ...) will negatively affect food production, in such a degree even that [[Famine|food shortage]]s are likely to occur in the coming decades.<ref>[https://www.ipcc.ch/report/srccl/ Climate Change and Land report]</ref><ref>[https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/08/climate/climate-change-food-supply.html Climate Change Threatens the World’s Food Supply, United Nations Warns]</ref> As a result, we will need to use the scarce natural resources more efficiently and adapt to climate change.<ref>[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8303434.stm Food production 'must rise 70%']</ref> Lastly, some things (such as the increase in agricultural production for 1st generation [[biofuels]]) has not been taken into account in FAO's forecast.<ref>[https://www.populationinstitute.org/resources/populationonline/issue/1/8/ FAO says Food Production must Rise by 70%]</ref>
-==Criticism==
-[[Karl Marx]] and [[Friedrich Engels]] argued that Malthus failed to recognize a crucial difference between humans and other species. In capitalist societies, as Engels put it, scientific and technological "progress is as unlimited and at least as rapid as that of population".<ref>Engels, Friedrich."Outlines of a Critique of Political Economy", ''Deutsch-Französische Jahrbücher'', 1844, p. 1.</ref> Marx argued, even more broadly, that the growth of both a human population ''in toto'' and the "[[relative surplus population]]" within it, occurred in direct proportion to [[Capital accumulation|accumulation]].<ref>Karl Marx (transl. Ben Fowkes), ''Capital Volume 1'', Harmondsworth, Penguin, 1976 (originally 1867),  pp. 782–802.</ref>
-[[Henry George]] criticized Malthus's view that population growth was a cause of poverty, arguing that poverty was caused by the concentration of ownership of land and natural resources. George noted that humans are distinct from other species, because unlike most species humans can use their minds to leverage the reproductive forces of nature to their advantage. He wrote, "Both the jayhawk and the man eat chickens; but the more jayhawks, the fewer chickens, while the more men, the more chickens." <ref>Progress and Poverty, Chapter 7, Malthus vs. Facts in http://www.henrygeorge.org/pchp7.htm</ref>{{Incomplete short citation|date=October 2016}}
-[[Ester Boserup]] suggested that population levels determined agricultural methods, rather than agricultural methods determining population.<ref>Ester Boserup, ''The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change under Population Pressure''</ref>{{Incomplete short citation|date=October 2016}}
-[[Julian Lincoln Simon|Julian Simon]] was another economist who argued that there could be no global Malthusian catastrophe, because of two factors: (1) the existence of new knowledge, and educated people to take advantage of it, and (2) "economic freedom", that is, the ability of the world to increase production when there is a profitable opportunity to do so.<ref>The Ultimate Resource II: People, Materials, and Environment in http://www.juliansimon.com/writings/Ultimate_Resource/</ref>{{Incomplete short citation|date=October 2016}}
-D. E. C. Eversley observed that Malthus appeared unaware of the extent of industrialization, and either ignored or discredited the possibility that it could improve living conditions of the poorer classes.<ref>{{Cite book|title=Social theories of fertility and the Malthusian debate|last=Charles.|first=Eversley, David Edward|date=1959|publisher=Greenwood Press|isbn=9780837176284|location=Westport, Connecticut|pages=|oclc=1287575}}</ref>
-In contrast to these criticisms, some individuals, such as [[Joseph Tainter]], argue that science has diminishing marginal returns<ref>Tainter, Joseph. ''The Collapse of Complex Societies'', Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2003.</ref>{{Incomplete short citation|date=October 2016}} and that scientific progress is becoming more difficult, harder to achieve, and more costly.
-== See also ==
-* [[Antinatalism]]
-* [[Demographic trap]]
-* [[Global catastrophic risk]]
-* [[Human overpopulation]]
-* [[Malthusian trap]]
-* [[Peak phosphorus]]
-* [[Population cycle]]
-* [[Overshoot (population)]]
-* [[Olduvai theory]]
-* [[r/K selection theory]]
-==Notes==
-{{Reflist|30em}}
-==References==
-{{Refbegin|}}
-* Korotayev A., Malkov A., Khaltourina D. ''[https://www.academia.edu/32757085/Introduction_to_Social_Macrodynamics._Models_of_the_World_System_Development._Moscow_KomKniga_URSS_2006 Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth.]'' Moscow: URSS, 2006. {{ISBN|5-484-00414-4}}
-* Korotayev A., Malkov A., Khaltourina D. ''[https://www.academia.edu/22215616/Introduction_to_Social_Macrodynamics_Secular_Cycles_and_Millennial_Trends Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends.]'' Moscow: URSS, 2006. {{ISBN|5-484-00559-0}} [http://cliodynamics.ru/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=302&Itemid=1 See especially Chapter 2 of this book]
-* Korotayev A. & Khaltourina D. ''[https://www.academia.edu/27503953/Introduction_to_Social_Macrodynamics_Secular_Cycles_and_Millennial_Trends_in_Africa Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends in Africa.]'' Moscow: URSS, 2006. {{ISBN|5-484-00560-4}}
-* {{Cite journal
- | last = Malthus
- | first = Thomas Robert
- | author-link =Thomas Malthus
- | year = 1798
- | title =An Essay on the Principle of Population
- | edition = First
- | location = London
- | url =http://www.esp.org/books/malthus/population/malthus.pdf
- | accessdate =29 March 2018 |journal=Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project|volume=|pages=|via=}}
-* [[Peter Turchin|Turchin, P.]], et al., eds. (2007). [http://edurss.ru/cgi-bin/db.pl?cp=&page=Book&id=53185&lang=en&blang=en&list=Found History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies.] Moscow: KomKniga. {{ISBN|5-484-01002-0}}
-* [http://cliodynamics.ru/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=309&Itemid=1 A Trap At The Escape From The Trap? Demographic-Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modern Africa and West Asia. ''Cliodynamics'' 2/2 (2011): 1–28].
-{{Refend}}
-==External links==
-*[http://www.blupete.com/Literature/Biographies/Philosophy/Malthus.htm Essay on life of Thomas Malthus]
-*[http://www.ac.wwu.edu/~stephan/malthus/malthus.0.html Malthus' Essay on the Principle of Population]
-*[http://www.daviddfriedman.com/Academic/Laissez-Faire_In_Popn/L_F_in_Population.html David Friedman's essay arguing against Malthus' conclusions]
-*[https://www.un.org/popin/wdtrends.htm United Nations Population Division World Population Trends homepage]
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