DYRIAS

from Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The dynamic risk analysis systems (abbreviation DyRiAS ) are computer-based instruments that were developed for the prevention of targeted acts of violence. The DyRiAS instruments support their users in clarifying problematic behavior patterns by recording the extent to which a person's behavior that appears threatening is associated with the risk of serious fatal violence. The instruments are based on the international standards of threat management and threat analysis ( threat management / threat assessment). They have been evaluated in various scientific studies. An early identification of possible risk developments with DyRiAS is intended to ensure that problematic escalation processes of people who appear threatening can be broken through targeted case management. With DyRiAS school, workplace and intimate partner, three instruments are currently available, each focusing on specific areas of severe targeted violence.

Scientific basis and development

DyRiAS is based on the knowledge that a serious, targeted act of violence represents the end point of a path of development. International studies show that this path is accompanied by characteristic and potentially observable features in the behavior and communication of the later perpetrator. Often the social environment noticed the suspicious behavior of the later perpetrators in the run-up to targeted violence, but could not correctly assess it. DyRiAS starts with the potential observability of this development in advance of targeted violence.

DyRiAS is committed to the cornerstones of psychological threat management. In the context of threat management, violence is not understood as an unchangeable personality trait, but as a consequence that arises from the constant interplay between perpetrator, victim and situational influences. The instruments are therefore sensitive both to a person's attitudes towards violence and potential victims and to the intensification of their individual life situation as well as aggressive behavior that has already been shown. The developers point out that a risk assessment should always be carried out alongside the case and, if necessary, updated as soon as the behavior of the perpetrator or his situation changes significantly.

The development of the DyRiAS instruments is based on the evaluation of international studies and research work by the Forensic Psychology Department at the Technical University of Darmstadt and the Institute for Psychology and Threat Management in Darmstadt. The modules are updated regularly according to the advancing state of research, which is evident from the different version numbers.

DyRiAS modules: focus and validity

There are currently three DyRiAS instruments available, each focusing on specific areas of severe targeted violence. To ensure that the instruments are used properly, their use is linked to user training.

DyRiAS school

DyRiAS-Schule records the current risk of a (former) pupil to commit a serious, targeted act of violence in the school context (school shooting, amok at schools). A validation study showed that the instrument is able to correctly identify high-risk cases and at the same time classify cases with a low threat potential as low-risk.

DyRiAS workplace

DyRiAS workplace is used to assess the risk of a serious act of violence in the work context in companies and authorities. Overall, DyRiAS workstation is available in three specifications, which focus on different relationship patterns between the suspicious person and the organization:

  • The employee module considers the risk potential of current or former employees of the company or the authority for a serious act of violence.
  • The customer module focuses on external people, such as customers, suppliers or other people who are connected to the company or the authority.
  • The intimate partner module focuses on threatening people who, for example, are or have been in an intimate partnership with an employee of the company or the authority.

DyRiAS intimate partner

DyRiAS intimate partner considers the risk of severe fatal violence by the (ex) intimate partner.

During the construction of the module, a total of 70 cases of attempted or complete homicide of the (ex) partner or the (suspected) new partner by male partners and ex-partners were evaluated. The results were checked using a control group of domestic abusers or men who had become suspicious of their (former) partner because of threatening behavior. The instrument was able to correctly identify the group of perpetrators.

Criticism of the validity of DyRiAS intimate partners

DyRiAS intimate partner has so far been evaluated in three studies. According to two scientific studies, the instrument is able to correctly identify the risk of fatal violence as opposed to non-fatal aggression, for example in the form of threats, physical violence and stalking by (ex) intimate partners. The Swiss forensic psychiatrist Andreas Frei, for example, comes to the following conclusion against the background of his validation study:

“The results of the analysis show that DyRiAS is a reliable instrument for identifying potentially serious violent offenders in the context of domestic violence. DyRiAS makes a valid assignment to the respective groups. The statistically significant difference in the mean values ​​of the two comparatively small comparison groups speaks for this. "

A third study that examined the risk of domestic violence perpetrators recidivism without taking into account homicides committed by male (ex) intimate partners came to the conclusion that the tool was not capable of making reliable predictions. In a statement, however, the developers point out that this is an expected result insofar as lethal violence in the study design by Gerth et al. was not taken into account - DyRiAS was however developed to clarify the risk of fatal acts of violence. The study thus completely excludes the actual target offense, for the prevention of which DyRiAS intimate partners were developed.

Criticism of the independence of the studies

The results of a study are not an independent scientific investigation as they were carried out by the developers themselves. In contrast to this study, the results of further validations are much more differentiated. In his investigation, Andreas Frei came to the conclusion that only 11% of the test persons who were attested to by the module as having a high risk of violence (level 4 and higher) ultimately committed a violent crime, but the developers agreed with regard to the detection rate. However, this is only achieved with a high number of false hits. The third study also criticizes this strong tendency to overestimate. She also criticizes the proportionality of the strategies that are made on the basis of DyRiAS forecasts. The results of the manufacturer's own study are therefore to be assessed critically, in particular due to the strong deviation from the conclusions of a third independent study.

Screener Islamism

Screener Islamism is a standardized instrument for the early detection of possible radicalization processes in the field of Islamism. It supports users in identifying and clarifying behavioral patterns that have proven relevant in the course of Islamist radicalization processes. The instrument is sensitive to the consolidation of a person's individual tendencies towards radicalization and to any associated Islamist-motivated actions such as planning and carrying out attacks and connecting a person to jihadist groups at home and abroad. Screener Islamism only applies when a person has attracted attention through worrying behavior.

The screener was tested on 31 cases of criminally relevant jihadist activity, and the tool was able to correctly identify all cases based on the behavior patterns shown in the run-up to the crime.

Use of DyRiAS

The DyRiAS instruments were developed for professionals of all professional groups who deal with risk assessment and case management in the respective field (e.g. employees of the company who have been entrusted with risk analysis, such as educators, psychologists, psychiatrists, therapists, police officers). In addition to advisory institutions and school authorities, the Zurich canton police have also been working with DyRiAS for several years.

Web links

swell

  1. ↑ a b c Jens Hoffmann , Roshdi, K. & Allwinn, M .: DyRiAS-Schule: Development and validation of an online-based analysis tool for the risk assessment of severe targeted violence in schools. In: Police & Science . No. 2 , 2013, p. 49-59 .
  2. ↑ a b c d e f Hoffmann, J. & Glaz-Ocik, J .: DyRiAS-Intimpartner: Construction of an online-based analysis tool for assessing the risk of fatal violence against current or former intimate partners . In: Police & Science . No. 2 , 2012, p. 45-57 .
  3. ↑ a b c d e f Frei, A. (in press): The risk assessment of serious domestic violence using the computerized prognostic instrument DyRiAS - an evaluation study based on cases from Switzerland. In: Hoffmann, J., Roshdi, K. & Rudolf von Rohr, H. (Ed.): Threat Management in Switzerland . Second expanded edition. Police Science Publishing House.
  4. ↑ a b c d Gerth, J., Rossegger, A., Singh, JP, & Endrass, J .: Assessing the Risk of Severe Intimate Partner Violence: Validating the DyRiAS in Switzerland. In: Archives of Forensic Psychology . tape 1 , no. 2 , 2015, p. 1-15 .
  5. ↑ Hoffmann, J. & Roshdi, K .: "Recognize - Assess - Defuse" with DyRiAS school. In: forum crime prevention . No. 3 , 2014, p. 46-48 .
  6. ↑ Hoffmann, J., & Streich, K .: Threat management in cases of stalking. A behavioral approach to risk assessment and the prevention of psychological and physical violence. In: Stalking - the practical handbook: Victim assistance, perpetrator intervention, criminal prosecution . No. 18 , 2017.
  7. ↑ a b c Meloy, JR, & Hoffmann, J. (Eds.): International Handbook of Threat Assessment. Oxford University Press, 2013.
  8. ^ Amman et al .: Making Prevention a Reality: Identifying, Assessing, and Managing the Threat of Targeted Attacks. US Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation (Bahavioral Analysis Unit)., 2017.
  9. ↑ Hoffmann, J., Roshdi, K. & Robertz, F .: Targeted heavy violence and amok in schools. In: Criminology . No. 4 , 2009.
  10. ↑ Hoffmann, J .: Threat Management and Psychological Aspects of Radicalization. In: Böckler, N., & Hoffmann, J. (Ed.): Radicalization and Terrorist Violence: Perspectives from Case and Threat Management. Publishing house for police science, Frankfurt am Main 2017.
  11. ↑ a b c DyRiAS: Dynamic Risk Analysis Systems. Retrieved November 23, 2017 .
  12. ^ Hoffmann, J .: Threats, violence and stalking in the workplace. In: MANAGEMENT . No. 40 , 2014, p. 41 .
  13. ↑ DyRiAS: Current study strengthens the informative value of the risk assessment instrument DyRiAS intimate partner. (PDF) Retrieved November 23, 2017 .
  14. ↑ "Predictive Policing" - Police software suspects two out of three people wrongly . In: Swiss Radio and Television (SRF) . April 5, 2018 ( srf.ch [accessed April 7, 2018]).
  15. ↑ Böckler, N., Allwinn, M., Hoffmann, J. & Zick, A .: Early detection of Islamist-motivated radicalization: Presentation and empirical validation of a behavior-based instrument for case screening. In: Criminology . tape 8 , no. 9 , 2017, p. 497-503 .
  16. ↑ Anette Langer: How rampages can be prevented. Retrieved November 23, 2017 .
  17. ↑ SF, Schweiz Aktuell: Amok Prevention - DyRiAS in action at the Zurich police. Retrieved November 23, 2017 .
  18. ↑ Georg Ismar: How can a rampage be prevented? Retrieved November 23, 2017 .
  19. ↑ University of Applied Sciences for Public Administration North Rhine-Westphalia (Münster department), project report