Milestone trend analysis
The milestone trend analysis ( MTA ) is a method of project management to monitor the project progress and thus to recognize deadline delays at an early stage. Many projects are fraught with high risks . These risks often lead to delays in the deadlines of sub-projects , which in turn affect the scheduling of the overall project.
requirements
An important prerequisite for the MTA are clearly defined milestones with fixed dates and the goals to be achieved. A milestone can be the completion of a sub-project, for example. On the basis of these milestones, the MTA can be used to identify a trend with regard to the dates, and thus any postponements can be counteracted at an early stage.
procedure
Fixed milestone dates are necessary for a milestone trend analysis. These are determined at the beginning of a project for project planning . For the MTA, these milestone dates must be regularly checked and questioned. This is best done in a regular (status) meeting (e.g. as part of a project jour fixe ), in which as many people as possible who are responsible for one or more of the milestones participate. In these meetings, the status of each milestone is discussed. These include:
- Which tasks have already been completed?
- What difficulties, problems have arisen since the last meeting?
- What difficulties, problems have been resolved since the last meeting?
- What effort has to be done before the milestone is reached?
- Is there a time shift in the milestone?
If a milestone is postponed, a new date must be defined. This is entered accordingly in the MTA.
In a status meeting, a date confirmation (i.e. the milestone date does not move) or a new date (i.e. the milestone date moves backwards or forwards) can be determined for a milestone. The milestone dates result in a trend for each project. This is visualized by means of the graphic evaluation of the MTA.
Trend pattern
example 1
Example 1 shows the graphic representation of an MTA for the reporting period January to September 2004 for a milestone. In the original planning, October 2004 was the end date for this milestone. From the graph it can be seen that from June 2004 it could be seen that the milestone would be reached in September 2004.
Example 2
In addition to the trend pattern shown above (milestone will be reached earlier than originally expected), there are other known patterns in the MTA. Example 2 shows one such:
Green: The repeatedly falling course of the series indicates planning with excessively high safety buffers. The milestone will be reached much earlier than planned. With a more precise date forecast, for example, the distribution of resources could have been optimized.
Red: This shows the extreme opposite of the green row. The steeply rising trend indicates an overly optimistic schedule. The originally scheduled date cannot be kept and has to be postponed several times.
Blue: The zigzag course indicates a general great uncertainty in the statements about the dates. Therefore the appointment has to be moved forward and back several times. On the other hand, it can be seen here that any problems were identified, the appointment therefore had to be postponed, then appropriate countermeasures were successfully initiated and the appointment could be brought forward again to the original date.
Yellow: This corresponds to the ideal course of milestone dates. The deadline estimates were continuously confirmed and the planned deadline was met.
Evaluation and interpretation
The interpretation of the series is of course far more interesting as a forecast of the further course for the project management than the above-mentioned considerations of already completed milestones. With some experience and a sense of proportion, the MTA can also be used to make forecasts about the further course of the appointment situation. If z. If, for example, a milestone date is set back despite the countermeasures taken, the probability that the planned date can be met is very low. This can be recognized early by the MTA and read off from the graphic. Particularly in the case of interdependencies between milestones / sub-projects, it is extremely important to recognize postponements at an early stage so that these can be taken into account in the subsequent dependent milestones / sub-projects.
Areas of application of the milestone trend analysis in the project
The graphical representation of the milestone trend analysis is suitable for various purposes. Suitable addressees can be all project participants. Here estimates for the further course of the milestone dates can be derived from the previous trends. Furthermore, the appointment situation is shown graphically to all those involved.
The MTA is also suitable for (interim) reports to higher management. The graphic representation can be used to clarify the state of affairs and any expected postponements.
Furthermore, the MTA should not be missing in any final project report. The MTA is particularly suitable for " Lessons Learned " in order to show the earliest possible detection of postponements by project management and to discuss the countermeasures introduced and their effects.
Support of the method through tools
Due to the simplicity of the method, it can be applied manually directly on paper without special tools. The MTA graphics can also be edited with partly freely available macros or add-ons for Microsoft Excel or Microsoft Project. There are also cloud-based web applications (SaaS - Software as a Service) with which the MTA method can be used directly online.
literature
- Rene Sutorius: Project Management Checkbook. 1st edition. Rudolf Haufe Verlag, Munich 2009, ISBN 978-3-448-06815-3 .