Pill break
The Pillenknick is a theory to explain the marked drop in birth rates in many industrialized nations from the second half of the 1960s. The kink shown in the birth curve is so strong, above all, because there was previously a baby boomer phase with significantly higher birth rates, a phase that began between 1945 and 1955, depending on the country. Since the birth rate approximately with the dissemination of birth control pills coincides, this method of contraception has been blamed for the declining birth rate. However, recent publications question this theory.
Since the mid-1990s, there has been a renewed surge of low-birth cohorts, which, in addition to the generally falling birth rate and increasing average childbearing age, also represents the second generation of the pill break.
The pill kink becomes visible in the corresponding age pyramids .
debate
An inevitable connection between the existence of the birth control pill and the subsequent drop in the birth rate below the level of self-preservation is mostly denied today. On the one hand, this applies to both the manufacturers of the pill and to groups that are generally positive about its use (groups of women in the 1960s). On the other hand, even conservative circles do not see the cause of the pill kink in the theoretical availability of the pill, but in a change in morality that made its use conceivable.
Another approach of the declaration in particular for Germany is the absence of certain vintages in the population, which in the First and Second World War have fallen, and a pent-up demand following the reconstruction and the housing shortage in the 1950s. The increased birth rates between 1955 and 1965 only reflect the increased birth rates between 1930 and 1940, since those born during this period now had children themselves:
(No birth numbers, but numbers from the 1939 census )
| year | number |
|---|---|
| 1933 | 1,075,574 |
| 1934 | 1,284,254 |
| 1935 | 1,285,627 |
| 1936 | 1,303,287 |
| 1937 | 1,335,649 |
| 1938 | 1,463,935 |
After 1965, however, only the few children of the war generation came of age to become parents themselves. Another indication for this explanation is that the development in the GDR started earlier than in the FRG, although the birth control pill was introduced later because the average age of the mother at the time of delivery was lower in the GDR than in the FRG.
On the other hand, the fact that the trend of low birth rates in Germany has continued so far cannot be explained by the age structure. However, there is no question that the trend towards fewer children began decades before the pill was introduced (in addition, the number of birth control pills did not increase significantly until around 1970, → the birth control pill was marketed in Germany ) and is primarily due to social causes (such as pension insurance , material needs). An additional negative effect on the development of the birth rate is the fact that the average age of mothers has risen in recent decades ( tempo effect ), which may or may not be related to easier birth control.
Another approach is compression and decompression: pill kink and baby boom are linked in a certain way. From this perspective, the baby boom represents a compression, which means that subsequent cohorts will have their children earlier than previous cohorts in the longitudinal view. The pill break, on the other hand, is decompression: subsequent cohorts have their children on average later than the previous ones.
Web links
- Federal Agency for Civic Education: Development of the fertility rate (graphic)
Individual evidence
- ↑ Federal Statistical Office, Population - Born and Died Germany, accessed on July 22, 2013
- ↑ Schwentker, B. (2014) Pillenknick? Can you bend! Spiegel Online, March 19, 2014 (archive) .