Housing shortage
There is a shortage of housing (also shortage of housing , housing shortage ) on the housing market when the supply of apartments is significantly lower than the demand . The result is an increase in rental prices or purchase prices for residential properties . The opposite is the situation where apartments are vacant .
General
To market equilibrium in the housing market is, if housing supply and housing demand match in theory, so that the market price remains constant and the equilibrium price functions. A shortage of housing therefore represents a market imbalance. The shortage can be limited to individual market segments of the housing market, for example social housing , owner-occupied apartments , luxury apartments , apartments or large residential complexes . In addition, the housing shortage can be regionally limited, for example more frequently in western Germany than in eastern Germany or in large cities or metropolitan areas . Since apartments are immobile goods and cannot keep up with a regional short-term growth in demand, there is also a shortage of living space if there is a sufficient number of apartments on a national average. Competing types of use - for example residential, commercial, retail - must also be taken into account.
history
In many medieval cities, the lack of living space was a permanent problem, also because building land was limited in walled cities. In the early modern period , for military reasons, it was often not allowed to build outside the fortifications - in the fortress pale - so that the cities within became increasingly dense. The industrialization of the 19th century led to a strong growth of cities ( urbanization ), associated with rural-urban migration and the emergence of slums and tenements in the suburban areas of cities in England and other developed regions. The lack of living space was a central problem of this pauperism and was also discussed , for example, by artists such as Heinrich Zille . A phenomenon of this time were also sleepers who could only rent a bed by the hour.
The social reformation movement of the late 19th century saw the inadequate living conditions of large sections of the population as an untenable situation. The background was the persistent housing poverty in the imperial era, especially in the working-class neighborhoods . With protests up to rent strikes or against evictions , the demand for healthy and affordable living space was repeatedly articulated in the environment of the labor movement . One reaction was the establishment of the first housing cooperatives . The first building cooperative was founded in Hamburg-Steinwärder in 1862; the oldest building cooperative that still exists today is the Münchener, which was established in 1871. Social housing began in the Weimar Republic to alleviate the still rampant housing shortage in the big cities. In the 1920s, new settlements emerged in many German cities, which were intended to offer healthy living environments, in particular to population groups with low incomes.
The tendency for living space to be scarce repeatedly triggered fixed rental prices . The first state price control of the rent took place through the Reich Rent Act of March 1922, in October 1936 the National Socialists imposed a rent freeze and set up further rent authorities.
The situation was further aggravated by the destruction of the Second World War and the influx of displaced persons from the eastern German territories. It was not until the large-scale housing construction programs between 1950 and 1990 that the housing shortage in Germany was largely eliminated. As a result of the increased influx of people into the prosperous metropolitan areas since 2010, a shortage of housing has become a problem again in some large cities. On the other hand, due to demographic change in some rural regions in Germany, vacancies are becoming a growing phenomenon.
In June 1960, the then Housing Minister Paul Lücke ensured the elimination of the forced housing economy (“Lücke Plan”) and the abolition of the fixed rental price through the “Law on the dismantling of the forced housing economy” . It was supposed to eliminate the acute housing shortage by giving tax support to the construction of family-friendly homes. From 1963 to 1965, in connection with the “Lücke Plan” and the associated partial lifting of tenant protection, numerous communities built new homeless shelters in simple housing. From August 1963, landlords in West Germany were allowed to "reasonably" increase their rent claims up to a maximum rate of 25 percent; from 1964 there were no longer any maximum limits for old building rents either.
Special forms of housing shortage can occur if there are sufficient apartments available, but these are permanently withdrawn from the regular housing market. Examples of this were found, on the one hand, in real socialist systems with state-determined rents below cost recovery , which, in connection with a lack of materials, meant that existing apartments could no longer be kept in a habitable condition and fell into disrepair. Another example are holiday regions (especially in island locations), where many apartments have been converted into holiday apartments or built directly as such, so that, for example, local service staff is displaced and is affected by massive rent increases. Since around 2010, with the spread of services such as Airbnb , this problem has also spread to many metropolises such as Amsterdam or Barcelona . In London and some other western financial centers, the widespread use of unused second homes , which are held by wealthy private individuals from unstable countries, also plays a role, be it for money laundering or as security and refuge in case of problems in their home country.
Internationally, since around 1950, developments in the cities of developing and emerging countries have been similar to those in 19th century Europe with the emergence of slums and the overcrowding of existing living space. In developed countries, too, there are urban regions with an extreme housing shortage, such as San Francisco or Hong Kong . The cramped topography on an island or peninsula also plays a role there.
Legal issues
The housing shortage is a social problem that often affects broad sections of the population. Therefore, the legislature upheld introduction or tightening of the tenant protection one, tenants 'associations represent the interests of the tenants are true and the umbrella organization of the German Tenants' League as a pressure group together.
Because of its social importance, the apartment rent is more strictly regulated in the BGB than the other tenancies. The German rental law therefore emphasizes the protection of tenants. This includes in particular the right to a rent reduction in the event of a defect ( Section 536 (1) BGB), limitation of the rent deposit to three times the rent ( Section 551 BGB), ineffectiveness of a contractual penalty ( Section 555 BGB), fixed rental prices for areas with a tense housing market 10% above the local comparative rent ( § 556d BGB), rent increase only up to the local comparative rent ( § 558 BGB), the rent index as a basis for comparison ( § 558c BGB), limited rent increases after modernization measures ( § 559 BGB) and notice periods .
The Tenancy Law Amendment Act, known as the rent brake, has been in force since June 2015 , according to which the rent demanded in a so-called “tight housing market” may not exceed 10% of the local comparative rent ( Section 556d BGB ).
economic aspects
From an economic point of view, the cause of the shortage of housing is that demand for housing rises due to population growth (higher birth rate , falling death rate , immigration ) or socio-demographic effects ( adolescents move into their own apartments earlier with their parents, obsolescence leads to the “blockade” of apartments) ( excess demand ), while the supply of housing stagnates or even decreases (e.g. due to demolition without reconstruction ), there is a shortage of living space. Reasons for the stagnation of the housing supply can be found in the construction industry (e.g. insufficient capacities due to a shortage of skilled workers ) or with the building owners (insufficient rental yield , state market regulation, e.g. through rent control , vacancy , fear of rent nomads ). The supply of apartments can only be increased in the medium term because the period between the building application and the time it is ready to move into must be taken into account.
The demand for expropriation of private housing companies that arose in Germany in April 2018 has been criticized. Housing shortage is a supply gap that will not be addressed by nationalization of housing companies ; they simply change the partner . The state would also have to take responsibility in the event of expropriation.
On the other hand, a purely market economy-oriented housing industry on its own obviously cannot remedy the deficiency either, since new buildings are mainly being built in the profitable upscale and luxurious market segment and there is already an oversupply in some cities. Speculation also leads to land not being built on in the hope of further price increases. Likewise, condominiums often remain unlet for a long time, since an empty apartment is easier to sell and the owner hopes for a higher profit in the short term than could be achieved in the long term through rental income.
Since the landlords have the bargaining power when there is a lack of living space , the housing market is a landlord's market because the landlords, as contracting parties, can largely dictate the rental conditions.
Situation in Germany
Causes of the current housing shortage
The causes of the current housing shortage include:
- The social housing was largely stopped after the turn. As a result, more and more apartments are falling out of social ties without new apartments being added. Some cities, such as Dresden , sold all of their social housing stock to private investors.
- The construction costs have increased enormously in recent years. In this context, there is particular criticism of the Energy Saving Ordinance with the obligation to extensively insulate residential buildings. The state government in North Rhine-Westphalia elected in 2017 wants to completely suspend the Energy Saving Ordinance for the next three years through a Federal Council initiative.
- As a result of the European Central Bank's low interest rate policy , investors and speculators are increasingly turning to real estate, known as concrete gold . In some cases, building land is bought in order to speculate on higher prices and later to sell this building land again at higher prices. In Berlin, of the 22,000 building permits issued, only 40 percent have been implemented, the other 60 percent are unused. As a result of speculation, the prices for building land in cities like Frankfurt have doubled since 2014, and the prices for residential property have risen by 50 percent.
- New apartments are also being built beyond demand. In cities , for example, mainly luxury apartments are built, which are considered inaccessible to the broader population. In addition, mostly large apartments are being built, although there are enough apartments of this type on the housing market and there is a lack of small one- and two-room apartments. Whole settlements with condominiums and houses are emerging in the countryside, for which there is no corresponding demand. (See also: gentrification )
- Due to the increasing concentration of the population in Germany in a few large cities, there is a regional divergence between supply and demand. Nationwide, 2.14 million apartments were vacant in 2017, which corresponds to 5.2% of the housing stock, but this housing vacancy mainly affects rural and structurally weak regions and regionally exceeds more than 10% of the housing stock, while at the same time in individual large cities and economically strong regions there is considerable excess demand for living space.
It is criticized that in the meantime even the providers of voluntary welfare care can not find any apartments on the housing market and as a result people who belong to socially marginalized groups, such as single parents or the disabled, are increasingly becoming homeless. The reason for this lies in the fact that rental contracts with non-profit organizations are subject to commercial leasing law, and the rental is done in order to sublet these apartments to those in need. This means that there is no protection against dismissal as is normally the case with residential rental contracts. Members of the Bundestag such as Corinna Rüffer are therefore calling for the protection against dismissal for housing leases to be expanded.
consequences
The consequences of the lack of housing include, for example, high rents , which tie up a considerable part of the disposable income, which is then lacking for consumer spending or for building up retirement reserves (see private liquidity calculation ). Also commuting over longer distances, with the associated environmental and health consequences is a result of lack of housing. Last but not least, the lack of apartments leads to less dynamism within the housing market, so that people who have found an apartment no longer move because a new apartment is significantly more expensive than the old one, even if it is now too big or no longer suitable Life situation fits. Furthermore, the real estate substance also suffers from the lack of living space, since yield-oriented landlords can easily find tenants even with economical or neglected maintenance of residential buildings.
statistics
The following table shows the development between December 31, 2011 and December 31, 2016 for the 15 largest cities in Germany. Since an average of two people per household live in the Federal Republic of Germany, the housing market continues to tighten with a ratio of more than two new residents per new apartment; a ratio below two would mean an easing of the local housing market. It should be noted that existing vacancy reserves could be used in some cities, especially in Leipzig (where the vacancy rate at the 2011 census was 12.1% of the total stock), and to a lesser extent in Duisburg, Dresden, Essen and Dortmund.
| Development in the 15 largest cities from December 31, 2011 to December 31, 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| city | Population development |
Completed apartments |
New residents per new apartment |
| Berlin | +248,828 | 35,087 | 7.1 |
| Hamburg | +92,251 | 30,062 | 3.1 |
| Munich | +99.381 | 30.179 | 3.3 |
| Cologne | +62,270 | 15,398 | 4.0 |
| Frankfurt am Main | +59,881 | 16,016 | 3.7 |
| Stuttgart | +37.017 | 8,082 | 4.6 |
| Dusseldorf | +20,837 | 7,422 | 2.8 |
| Dortmund | +14,410 | 4,403 | 3.3 |
| eat | +17,184 | 3,432 | 5.0 |
| Leipzig | +61.045 | 4,261 | 14.3 |
| Bremen | +21,676 | 7,585 | 2.9 |
| Dresden | +29,407 | 7.169 | 4.1 |
| Hanover | +23,379 | 4,422 | 5.3 |
| Nuremberg | +21,543 | 6,681 | 3.2 |
| Duisburg | +12,375 | 2,179 | 5.7 |
Individual evidence
- ↑ Peter Czada / Michael Tolksdorf, Economic Policy: Current Problem Areas , 1992, p. 265
- ↑ Helmut Jenkis, The non-profit housing industry between market and social ties, Volume 2, 1985, p. 89
- ↑ Horst Siebert / Oliver Lorz, Introduction to Economics , 2007, p. 103 f.
- ^ DMB Mieterbund Nordhessen e. V., data on the history of the tenant movement
- ↑ Martin Lenz, On the way to the social city , 2007, p. 64
- ↑ Der Spiegel of August 14, 1963, A Second Miracle
- ↑ tagesschau.de of April 5, 2019, With expropriations against housing shortages? , accessed April 8, 2019
- ↑ NRW wants to get out of the Energy Saving Ordinance - Die Welt
- ↑ Property speculators exacerbate the housing shortage - ARD panorama
- ^ Real estate: What inhibits housing construction - Augsburger Allgemeine
- ↑ Too many homes in the country: real estate euphoria causes a flood of houses - Spiegel Online
- ^ Report of the Federal Institute for Building, Urban and Spatial Research (BBSR) in the Federal Office for Building and Spatial Planning (BBR), Bonn, from July 2019, accessed on July 31, 2019
- ↑ Without a home: Homeless in Berlin - ZDF report , March 25, 2018
- ↑ Federal government called upon to act in the event of a housing shortage - kobinet-Nachrichten
- ↑ Federal Statistical Office
- ↑ Federal Statistical Office
