Scenario analysis
The scenario analysis is an analysis method from the field of business administration ( innovation management ) for the comprehensible forecast of future developments.
General
The term scenario comes from the theater and film language and was founded in 1967 by Herman Kahn and Anthony J. Wiener in the futurology introduced and the economics. They define the scenario as "a hypothetical sequence of events constructed for the purpose of focussing attention on causal processes and decision points". Both authors understand the scenario analysis as a synthetic sequence of events, which is intended to draw attention to processes and decision-making requirements. As part of the scenario analysis, the effects of individual variable variables on a specific portfolio are analyzed.
The basic idea of the scenario analysis is to identify factors (the so-called design field) which influence the future of the object of investigation (the scenario field), e.g. B. Transmission bandwidths, population development or online access in the population. Subsequently, the development or the development possibilities of these factors are forecast in order to create combinatorial future scenarios from the possible development lines of the factors.
After reducing the scenarios by excluding inconsistent combinations (e.g. daily 24 hours of sunshine and simultaneous massive rainfall), summarizing similar scenarios and selecting particularly interesting scenarios (e.g. best case, worst case and most likely development), each of the paint the effects on the actual object of investigation in the remaining scenarios. The coloring, the visionary power of a scenario, must not be forgotten, especially when presenting to the client, as it makes the chaos of numbers determined so far tangible.
method
- Preparation: First there is the delimitation of the object of investigation (design and scenario field) and a rough analysis of the current situation.
- Analysis: After determining the influencing factors that (likely) influence the future development of the object of investigation, essential influencing factors are extracted from them and sufficient information is collected about their future development direction.
- Forecasting : operationalization of the key factors, measurement of the actual situation and development of possible projections (development options without specifying the probability of occurrence) or predictions (developments with a quantifiable probability of occurrence). The influencing factors are then related to each other and possible networks identified.
- Creation of scenarios : Now several possible scenarios are worked out (combination of factors to form raw scenarios, removal of inconsistent scenarios). Depending on your interests, z. B. one scenario mainly takes into account the positive development opportunities, another mainly the negative ones. A third one is based on the likely development. Then disturbances are introduced that lie outside the expected development and possible countermeasures are worked out.
- Transfer: Finally, the scenarios are transferred to the object of investigation and a strategy is developed. This should support the most likely development possibility and at the same time take into account the other situations (eventual and robust planning, e.g. alternative strategies when certain developments occur). In an impact analysis in which strategies and scenarios are considered in a matrix ("what happens if I use strategy 1..n and scenario 1..m occurs"), suitable strategies can be determined.
A critical step in the analysis is the determination of the key factors and the consolidation of the scenarios. Since there are no hard quality criteria here, the researcher can in principle influence the results (consciously and unconsciously).
The success of the scenario analysis depends largely on the technical and methodological skills of those involved, as well as on the quality of the data used. It is necessary to be able to think in a complex and networked way and to record the data accordingly. A number of software packages are available to support this.
disadvantage
The method is very complex - not least because each key factor considered multiplies the number of raw scenarios. Compared to an expert survey, the detailed analysis is more tedious and requires a great deal of personnel and financial effort. Even so, it cannot guarantee reliable results, only vaguely presenting different scenarios. Depending on the scientific requirements, not even concrete probabilities can be given for the scenarios.
Extreme events (wild cards) such as wars, massive political changes (e.g. German reunification) or very unlikely events (e.g. the landing of aliens on earth or a global epidemic) cannot be efficiently included in the analysis. At the same time, however, it is very unlikely, especially in the case of longer periods, that no major unexpected events will occur. Futurology deals with the precise problems of predicting future developments .
See also
Individual evidence
- ↑ H. Kahn / AJ Wiener, The Year 2000 , 1967, p. 6
- ↑ Kai Birkholz, Active Communal Debt Management , 2008, p. 100.