Cause and effect modeling
A cause-effect modeling illustrates causal or systemic contexts. In doing so, a section of reality is considered in a model , essential factors are named and linked with each other with arrows for effect; If necessary, the respective impact is further described and the sum of the effects is analyzed.
The modeling is used for decision support for problems caused by a variety of factors to be considered or even a high mutual interference ( cross-linking are marked) of these factors. With just four factors, humans come up against a cognitive limit. Therefore, various aids are used, especially software.
A distinction can be made between pure visualizations such as mind mapping , concept mapping , cause and effect diagrams , qualitative modeling and quantitative modeling.
Areas of application for these models are primarily private, political and business decision-making situations, but also social, economic and scientific disciplines.
literature
- Ulrich Hinsen (Ed.): The Race - Change Management with the ChangeModeler , SCM School for Communication and Management, SCM / Primus 2010, ISBN 978-3940543066 ( content text ).
- Melanie Mitchell: Complexity: A guided tour , Oxford University Press, Oxford (UK) - New York 2009, ISBN 978-0195124415 .
- JD Sterman: Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world , Irwin / McGraw-Hill, Boston 2000, ISBN 0-07-238915-X .
Individual evidence
- ↑ Cf. Graeme Halford: How many variables can humans process . In: Psychological Science 16/1 (2005), pp. 70-76.