Biomass potential
The biomass potential is a term that is used to estimate the possible contributions of biomass to the energy or raw material market. As a target value, the biomass potential indicates which cultivation areas or raw material quantities are available in a region for use as renewable raw materials .
Categories of biomass potential
Theoretical biomass potential
Theoretical biomass potential comprises the entire physical supply of a renewable energy source or a renewable raw material in a certain area for a certain period of time. The theoretical potential thus represents a kind of upper limit to the maximum possible potential use of an area. Worldwide, for example, the theoretical biomass potential could cover eight to nine times the annual world primary energy consumption.
The theoretical biomass potential can be determined, for example, with the help of the transpiration water supply (TWD; or also transpiration water supply TWA). This indicates how much water is available to the cultivated plants for their biomass build-up.
Technical biomass potential
In the literature and in many previous investment decisions, the technical potential is usually stated. Many political decisions on the use of biomass in Germany are also based on this potential. It comprises that part of the theoretical potential that can be sustainably gained from a certain area or region, taking into account a number of limiting factors. The technical potential is determined taking into account the following factors:
- Availability of natural resources (e.g. assuming priority to meet needs for nutrition)
- Preservation of the natural cycles
- no overexploitation , e.g. B. the humus content
- Compliance with ecological limits z. B. by soil erosion
- technical limitations and losses in energy conversion or raw material conversion
- Temporal and spatial imbalance between energy supply and energy demand, or raw material supply and demand.
When discussing the technical potential of a certain area, for example a country, the availability of space plays an essential role. A simplified assumption is often used for the estimation. So far, the areas of compulsory set-aside have often been assumed as the upper limit of the area available, or areas for food use (derived from the per capita consumption of food) and other alternative uses are deducted from the existing arable land. The remaining area is assumed to be available for biomass production. It is then used as a starting point to calculate the technical potential.
These assumptions can prove to be too restrictive in an open economy, because if German or European food production is internationally competitive, food could be exported. Against the background of the abolition of compulsory set-aside , the economic or economic biomass potential is becoming more and more important.
Economic (economic) biomass potential
Systems are considered to be economical if their specific energy costs (also due to political interventions) do not exceed those of conventional energy systems. The economic potential thus depends on the assumptions and prognoses on the cost development of the conversion technology, the price development of fossil fuels and raw materials, the price development of food and the political framework. As long as the costs for the provision of energy from biomass or raw materials from biomass are higher than the corresponding costs of the fossil competing products, the economic potential of biomass is heavily dependent on the design of the political framework.
The economic potential must not be confused with the economically efficient potential called for by Holm-Müller and Breuer. In order to determine the efficient economic potential, the objectives of promoting biomass would first have to be determined. Once the goals have been quantified, it can be determined which political means can be used to achieve these goals most efficiently. It should be noted here that a number of conflicting objectives can arise in the promotion of biomass.
Expectation potential or exploitable potential
The expected potential of biomass describes the realistically expected contribution to the provision of energy or raw materials. This contribution is usually less than the economic potential. On the one hand, a longer adjustment period must be expected and, on the other hand, the economic potential is not fully exploited due to so-called inhibiting factors. This includes a lack of information and legal or administrative limitations.
In its biomass strategy, the federal government stipulates that energy crops and biogenic residues should cover up to 15 percent of the total energy demand in Germany in 2020, twice as much as today. 3.7 million hectares are required for this (21.9% of today's agricultural area), which is about twice as much as today (1.6 million hectares, corresponds to 9.5% of the agricultural area).
For assessments of the global space requirement and the realizable potential in Germany, see the article Bioenergy .
Supply potential of renewable raw materials in agricultural landscapes
Based on the current framework conditions for a region or a country, producer prices result for various renewable raw materials (biomass). To determine this, the production chain is viewed backwards, i.e. from the product to the raw material. With these producer prices, the relative excellence of the cultivation method ( contribution margin , crop rotation , workload) must be determined, so it must be determined how attractive the cultivation of renewable raw materials is for a farmer compared to the cultivation of other arable crops. If the relative excellence lies in the biomass cultivation method (energetic or material use), then there is economic biomass potential. When it comes to the question of the agricultural supply potential, the entire agricultural sector must be examined. The economic biomass supply potential of agriculture and forestry is thus ultimately decided “on the scarce area”.
See also
literature
- Biomass potential atlas , published by the Renewable Energy Agency
- Hans Hartmann, M. Kaltschmitt (Ed.): Biomass as a renewable energy source: a technical, ecological and economic analysis in the context of other renewable energies. Landwirtschaftsverlag, Münster 2002, ISBN 3-7843-3197-1 .
- Thomas Breuer, K. Holm-Müller: Assessment of the chances from the promotion of biofuels for the rural regions in North Rhine-Westphalia. Agricultural Faculty of the University of Bonn, series of the teaching and research focus USL, No. 137, Bonn 2006.
- Sustainable bioenergy and sustainable land use. (PDF; 24.1 MB) In: Annual report 2008 of the WBGU (Scientific Advisory Board on Global Change); Berlin.
- Sustainable global bioenergy potential. (PDF; 14.2 MB) Beringer / Lucht; Expertise on the WBGU report 2008; Berlin.
Web links
Individual evidence
- ↑ a b c Thomas Dreier: Holistic system analysis and potential of biogenic fuels. E and M, Energie-und-Management-Verlag-Ges., Herrsching 2000, ISBN 3-933283-18-3 .
- ↑ A Lindroth, A Båth: Assessment of regional willow coppice yield in Sweden on basis of water availability . In: Forest Ecology and Management . tape 121 , no. 1–2 , August 1, 1999, pp. 57-65 , doi : 10.1016 / S0378-1127 (98) 00556-8 ( sciencedirect.com [accessed July 16, 2016]).
- ↑ M. Stork, A. Schulte, D. Murach: Large-scale fuelwood production on agricultural fields in mesoscale river catchments - GIS-based determination of potentials in the Dahme river catchment (Brandenburg, NE Germany) . In: Biomass and Bioenergy . tape 64 , May 1, 2014, p. 42-49 , doi : 10.1016 / j.biombioe.2014.03.029 ( sciencedirect.com [accessed July 16, 2016]).
- ↑ The availability of transpiration water as a controlling factor for the production of energy from pastures in short rotation plantations - assessment of the bioenergy potential for Germany - HyWa. October 12, 2015, accessed August 4, 2016 .
- ↑ U. Fritsche: Material flow analysis for the sustainable energetic use of biomass. Final report of the BMU research project. Darmstadt 2004.
- ↑ a b K. Holm-Müller and T. Breuer: Concepts of potential for energy crops. In: Information on spatial development. Issue 1 / 2.2006: Bioenergy: Future for rural areas. Pp. 15-21, 2006.
- ↑ Hans Hartmann, M. Kaltschmitt (Ed.): Biomass as a renewable energy source: a technical, ecological and economic analysis in the context of other renewable energies. Landwirtschaftsverlag, Münster 2002, ISBN 3-7843-3197-1 .
- ↑ Bioenergy Potential Atlas.