Early detection system

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Early detection systems (FES) are special information systems that are used in companies to detect threats and risks.

Development history

Early detection systems have been developed since the early 1970s. In the beginning, the focus was primarily on avoiding crises and defending against threats, while in recent years the early recognition of opportunities has increasingly come into focus. In principle, the development of the FES can be divided into three phases.

1st generation

The FES of the first generation built on the traditional key figures of accounting (such as profit, costs, sales, liquidity, ...). Based on the information obtained there, target-actual comparisons were carried out and so-called actual values ​​were recorded. These values ​​were used for corporate management. Due to the orientation towards the past and the focus on hard facts, which did not take into account soft facts such as customer needs, these systems did not provide the necessary information for strategic corporate management .

2nd generation

The 2nd generation of early detection systems tried to overcome the weaknesses of the 1st generation system based on indicators by including indicators . With the help of these indicators, changes in the environment should be recognized before they become immediately noticeable as an opportunity or risk for the company. These indicators thus served as parameters for estimating future developments. The main difficulty with these systems turned out to be the appropriate selection of indicators. In addition, the weighting of the factors caused problems in practice, so that these systems were then in fact primarily based on quantitative factors.

3rd generation

The aim of the 3rd generation of early detection systems is the increased focus on a strategic orientation of the systems. This new type of system means a detachment from the 1st and 2nd generation systems towards a system that primarily takes so-called "weak signals" into account. Predominantly qualitative information is recorded, from which changes can be derived as early as possible.

See also

literature

  • Franz Xaver Bea, Jürgen Haas: Strategic Management. 3. Edition. UTB für Wissenschaft, Stuttgart 2001, ISBN 3-8252-1458-3 , pp. 280-286.
  • R. Schatz (Ed.): Early warning systems. Friborg et al. 2003, ISBN 3-906501-29-9 .