Strategic early education

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The strategic early education aims to recognize discontinuities, technological trends and changes in the market environment by identifying and analyzing weak signals in the environment of a company. Recognition is used to prepare decisions that enable the company to take advantage of opportunities at an early stage and to react to dangers. The most important corporate areas that fall back on strategic early detection are strategic management , technology management , controlling and innovation management .

Definition of terms

According to Krystek, Müller-Stewens (1993), the concept of strategic early education has developed in four generations:

  • 1st generation (1970–1975): early warning - key figures , the values ​​of which are determined by projection and extrapolation
  • 2nd generation (1975–1980): Operational early detection - indicators for opportunities and risks
  • 3rd generation (1980–1990): Strategic early detection - potential opportunities and risks identified through weak signals
  • 4th generation (1990 – to date): Strategic early education - integrative approaches and networked thinking determines potential opportunities and risks and derives action

motivation

There are two reasons why companies are motivated to introduce strategic early warning systems:

  • the difficulty of large companies reacting to external changes. For example, in a study by de Geus, the average life expectancy of Fortune 500 is estimated to be less than 50 years, because companies do not react quickly enough in times of rapid change to maintain their competitiveness.
  • Companies have to develop new business areas when their current business areas become unprofitable. The strategic early education can help to identify new business fields and to prepare their development.

Overcoming three fundamental barriers

It has been shown that the inability of companies to respond quickly enough to change is caused by three fundamental barriers:

  • The high rate of change , which is characterized by (1) shorter product life cycles, (2) faster technological change, (3) higher innovation speed and (4) rapid innovation diffusion.
  • The ignorance of changes in the environment, which are due to (1) planning cycles that are too long, (2) missing external sensors, (3) information overload, (4) insufficient internal information transfer and (5) systematic filtering by middle management, which protects your current business fields , is due.
  • The organizational inertia caused by (1) complex internal structures, (2) complex external structures, (3) unwillingness to cannibalize current business areas, and too strong focus on the current business, which leads to cognitive inertia.

Need for strategic early education

In addition to overcoming the barriers, the need for strategic foresight can also be triggered by the following reasons:

To operationalize the need, Day and Schoemaker proposed a model with 24 questions.

Implementation of the strategic early education

The 5 Dimensions of Strategic Early Reconnaissance

Based on case studies in 20 multinational companies, Rohrbeck proposes a maturity model for organizational future orientation. This measures the ability to systematically react to upheavals in the corporate environment along five dimensions:

  • The use of information , which describes which data is used by the strategic early reconnaissance
  • The methodological maturity , which describes how the data is interpreted and how strong the communicative and integrative potential of the methods used is
  • Informal organization that describes how information and insights are disseminated in the company through personal networks and contribute to the triggering of activities.
  • Formal organization , which describes the degree of formalization of processes, committees and intra-organizational management systems
  • The culture , which describes the extent to which the corporate culture supports or hinders the ability to provide strategic early education.

To operationalize his model, Rohrbeck uses 20 elements, each of which is measured with 4 degrees of maturity. The maturity levels are to be described qualitatively, i.e. H. there is a statement for each degree of maturity, which companies must evaluate as true or false.

Roles of strategic early education in innovation management

Through an empirical study, various value contributions of the strategic early education to the innovative ability of companies could be observed. Rohrbeck suggests a division into 3 roles (see graphic):

Roles of strategic early education in innovation management

The three roles can be arranged along the innovation process:

  • In the role of input provider , strategic early education helps to identify new customer needs on the market side as well as new technologies on the technology side. It also supports the monitoring of competitors. One example of this is technology scouting , which uses expert networks to identify and evaluate new technologies and, if necessary, support them in acquiring the technologies.
  • As a strategic instrument , the strategic early education searches the environment for new business fields and triggers the renewal and repositioning process using suitable systems. At Siemens AG , for example, a procedure was developed that enables the strategic review of business units and is used for the exploration of new business areas. This method, which is operated under the name Pictures of the Future by the Corporate Technologies division, consists of scenario analysis , trend extrapolation and roadmapping .
  • As a continuous service , the strategic early education uses the findings from the observation of the environment to evaluate research and development projects. The question arises, for example, whether the project is state-of-the-art or whether the addressed customer needs are still up-to-date.

Rohrbeck's study showed that, on average, companies place too little value on the third role. The rule is still that R&D project decisions on the technologies used, the functions included, and which customer needs are addressed, are made at the beginning of the project and these are then no longer revised later, even with better knowledge. There is therefore potential for further improvements in the use of strategic early education and the potential to increase the company's ability to innovate.

Process of strategic early education

Averil Hilton developed the Early Education Process based on an analysis of various national early education programs, the academic disciplines of futurology and knowledge management. With a few acquisitions from Carolin Durst et al. based on Horton, Sutherland and Woodroof and Voros, this process consists of 3 steps:

  • The input includes scoping and gathering information. It starts with formulating a strategic question and defining the scope of the project. This is followed by the collection of data on future issues, trends, ideas from a variety of sources including experts, universities, corporate networks, personal networks, customers, suppliers, the literature, government, other early education reports, research and surveys.
  • The foresight includes analysis, interpretation and prospecting of this knowledge to an understanding of its implications for the future from the perspective of creating a specific organization. When the data is analyzed and interpreted, it is prospectively too, or in other words, it is used to create prospects for the future.
  • The output includes the evaluation of alternative future prospects and the formulation of a strategy for them. This already includes the obligation to act in a certain organization.

Case studies

In recent years, the importance of strategic early education in companies has increased and is becoming increasingly professional. There are now a number of case studies documented in academia:

Companies use strategic early education as an extension in strategic management, to identify new business areas and to improve their ability to innovate.

See also

Scientific journals

Conferences

Web links

Individual evidence

  1. ^ Franz Liebl: Strategic Early Enlightenment: Trends - Issues - Stakeholders. Oldenbourg, Munich / Vienna 1996, ISBN 3-486-23418-8 .
  2. ^ Adrian Müller, Günter Müller-Stewens: Strategic Foresight: Trend and future research in companies - instruments, processes, case studies. Schäffer-Poeschel, Stuttgart 2009, ISBN 978-3-7910-2868-2 .
  3. ^ René Rohrbeck, Cinzia Battistella, Eelko Huizingh: Corporate foresight: An emerging field with a rich tradition . In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change . tape 101 , p. 1–9 , doi : 10.1016 / j.techfore.2015.11.002 .
  4. ↑ René Rohrbeck, Sarah Mahdjour, Sebastian Knab, Tobias Frese: Benchmarking Report: Strategic Foresight in Multinational Companies . ID 1470050. Social Science Research Network, Rochester, NY July 1, 2009, doi : 10.2139 / ssrn.1470050 .
  5. ↑ Martin Roll, 2004 Strategic Early Reconnaissance: Preparing for an Uncertain Future Using the Example of Air Traffic. 1. Aufl. Ed. Gabler Edition Wissenschaft: Unternehmensführung & Controlling, Wiesbaden: Dt. Universitäts-Verlag, ISBN 3-8244-8254-1 .
  6. ↑ Ulrich Krystek, Günter Müller-Stewens: Early education for companies: Identification and handling of future opportunities and threats. Schäffer-Poeschel, Stuttgart 1993, ISBN 3-7910-0639-8
  7. ^ Arie De Geus: The living company. Harvard Business School Press, Boston, Mass. 1997, ISBN 1-57851-820-2 .
  8. ↑ Constantine Andriopoulos, Marianne W. Lewis: Exploitation-Exploration Tensions and Organizational Ambidexterity: Managing Paradoxes of Innovation . In: Organization Science . tape 20 , no. 4 , December 19, 2008, ISSN  1047-7039 , p. 696-717 , doi : 10.1287 / orsc.1080.0406 .
  9. ↑ a b Tobias Heger, René Rohrbeck: Strategic foresight for collaborative exploration of new business fields . In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change . tape 79 , no. 5 , p. 819-831 , doi : 10.1016 / j.techfore.2011.11.003 .
  10. ^ A b René Rohrbeck: Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a Firm. Physica-Verlag, Springer, Heidelberg 2010, ISBN 978-3-7908-2625-8 .
  11. ↑ George S. Day, Paul JH Schoemaker: Scanning the periphery. In: Harvard Business Review. 83, No. 11, 2005, pp. 135-148.
  12. ^ A b c René Rohrbeck, Hans Georg Gemünden: Corporate Foresight. Its Three Roles in Enhancing the Innovation Capacity of a Firm . In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change . tape 78 , no. 2 . Rochester, NY February 1, 2011, p. 231-243 ( ssrn.com - abstract).
  13. ^ René Rohrbeck: Harnessing a Network of Experts for Competitive Advantage. Technology Scouting in the ICT Industry . In: R&D Management . tape 40 , no. 2 . Rochester, NY 2010, pp. 169-180 ( ssrn.com - abstract).
  14. ↑ Marc Gruber, Bernd Kolpatzik, Jürgen Schönhut, Claudia Venter: The role of corporate foresight in the innovation process: goals, design and experiences using the example of Siemens AG. In: magazine leadership and organization (zfo). No. 5, 2003, pp. 285-290.
  15. ^ Averil Horton: A simple guide to successful foresight . In: The journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy . tape 1 , no. 1 , 1999, p. 5-9 , doi : 10.1108 / 14636689910802052 .
  16. ↑ Carolin Durst, Michael Durst, Thomas Kolonko, Andreas Neef, Florian Greif: A holistic approach to strategic foresight: A foresight support system for the German Federal Armed Forces . In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change . tape 97 , 2015, p. 91-104 , doi : 10.1016 / j.techfore.2014.01.005 .
  17. ↑ Cornelia Daheim, Gereon Uerz: corporate foresight in Europe: from trend-based logics to open foresight . In: Technology Analysis & Strategic Management . tape 20 , no. 3 , May 1, 2008, ISSN  0953-7325 , p. 321-336 , doi : 10.1080 / 09537320802000047 .
  18. ^ Jan Oliver Schwarz: Assessing the future of futures studies in management . In: Futures . tape 40 , no. 3 , 2007, p. 237-246 , doi : 10.1016 / j.futures.2007.08.018 .
  19. ↑ Rupert Hofmann: Visionary competence for long-term development of brands, products, and services: The trend receiver concept and its first applications at Audi . In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change . tape 101 , p. 83-98 , doi : 10.1016 / j.techfore.2014.06.005 .
  20. ^ Frank Ruff: The advanced role of corporate foresight in innovation and strategic management - Reflections on practical experiences from the automotive industry . In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change . tape 101 , p. 37-48 , doi : 10.1016 / j.techfore.2014.07.013 .
  21. ^ Inga-Lena Darkow: The involvement of middle management in strategy development - Development and implementation of a foresight-based approach . In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change . tape 101 , p. 10–24 , doi : 10.1016 / j.techfore.2013.12.002 .
  22. ^ Ted Farrington, Keith Henson, Christian Crews: Research Foresights: The Use of Strategic Foresight Methods for Ideation and Portfolio Management . In: Research-Technology Management . tape 55 , no. 2 , March 1, 2012, ISSN  0895-6308 , p. 26-33 , doi : 10.5437 / 08956308X5502023 .
  23. ↑ Sebastian Knab, René Rohrbeck: Strategic Foresight at General Electric: About the Ability to Mobilize all Employees to Manage Outbreaks in the Business Environment to Succeed (German: Strategische Frühaufklerung bei General Electric: From the ability to mobilize all employees to successfully make upheavals in the corporate environment to manage) . Social Science Research Network, Rochester, NY November 29, 2009 ( papers.ssrn.com [accessed January 15, 2018] abstract).
  24. ^ D. Theis: Pictures of the Future: An industrial foresight and innovation source . In: 2006 Technology Management for the Global Future - PICMET 2006 Conference . tape 2 , July 2006, p. 837-869 , doi : 10.1109 / PICMET.2006.296619 .
  25. ^ Ingo Rollwagen, Jan Hofmann, Stefan Schneider: Improving the business impact of foresight . In: Technology Analysis & Strategic Management . tape 20 , no. 3 , May 1, 2008, ISSN  0953-7325 , p. 337-349 , doi : 10.1080 / 09537320802000070 .
  26. ↑ Siri Boe-Lillegraven, Stephan Monterde: Exploring the cognitive value of technology foresight: The case of the Cisco Technology Radar . In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change . tape 101 , p. 62–82 , doi : 10.1016 / j.techfore.2014.07.014 .
  27. ^ Corporate Foresight at Cisco: Introduction of the Technology Radar. Retrieved January 15, 2018 .
  28. ↑ Cisco Technology Radar: Innovative strength through Technology Foresight. Retrieved March 5, 2020 .
  29. ^ René Rohrbeck, Heinrich Arnold, J Heuer: Strategic Foresight in Multinational Enterprises - A Case Study on the Deutsche Telekom Laboratories . In: ISPIM-Asia 2007 Conference . February 12, 2007 ( researchgate.net [accessed January 15, 2018]).
  30. ↑ Tobias Heger, Magnus Boman: Networked foresight — The case of EIT ICT Labs . In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change . tape 101 , p. 147–164 , doi : 10.1016 / j.techfore.2014.02.002 .
  31. ^ A b La prospective stratégique d'entreprise. Concepts et études de cas . InterEditions, Paris 1996, ISBN 2-7296-0443-X .
  32. ^ Living in the Futures . In: Harvard Business Review . May 1, 2013 ( hbr.org [accessed January 15, 2018]).
  33. ^ Michael Jefferson: Shell scenarios: What really happened in the 1970s and what may be learned for current world prospects . In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change . tape 79 , no. 1 , p. 186–197 , doi : 10.1016 / j.techfore.2011.08.007 .
  34. ↑ René Rohrbeck, Menes Etingue Kum: Corporate foresight and its impact on firm performance: A longitudinal analysis . In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change . S. 105–116 , doi : 10.1016 / j.techfore.2017.12.013 .