Trend extrapolation

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The trend extrapolation is an extrapolation that help in a time series analysis future trend developments can be predicted.

A statistically recorded development direction (trend) is extrapolated into the future. This update can be done manually by extending a trend line . However, the trend line can also be determined by mathematical or statistical analysis.

The time is thus understood as a summarized complex of causes made up of different variables , which affects the dependent variable. A prerequisite for this, however, is that the established regularity continues to apply.

One differentiates as trend models

  • linear
  • exponential and
  • logarithmic

Trend curves.

This has the advantage over simpler quantitative forecasting methods (such as the method of moving averages and exponential smoothing ) that future developments that lie outside the averages of the past are forecast.

The disadvantage of trend extrapolation is that it is assumed that the development observed so far will continue to the same extent. Future events that could reverse the trend are not taken into account.

Dennis Meadows and his team , for example , who used the method of trend extrapolation to predict The Limits to Growth in 1972, have received criticism .

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Wiktionary: Trend extrapolation  - explanations of meanings, word origins, synonyms, translations