Political anticipation

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The Political Anticipation is a tool for decision making , which as a principle understanding the rational future has, and any industry or any market can be used in each area.

The method was developed in early 2006 by the think tank LEAP / Europe 2020 and its founder Franck Biancheri . and is in the area of future research classified. It differs from the classic methods of futurology in that the prediction is not derived from an extension of the existing trends , but rather the complete understanding of the future and a correct assessment of the forces of the various actors who influence it is sought. The breakpoints of tendencies and trends are identified in order to influence the goal. This is done systematically in all perspectives - political, economic, social, financial, cultural, technical, etc.

Political anticipation is not only proactive but also dynamic. It focuses on the process of change and the fact that change is a part of life, we live with change, and that we shouldn't resist. Currently the most important practical application of this method is the think tank (of political anticipation European Laboratory) and his monthly newsletter GEAB, LEAP on the global systemic crisis made.

history

In January 2006, the first edition of the GEAB of LEAP was published, in which the term political anticipation is used for the first time. In February 2006, LEAP announced the outbreak of the systemic global crisis and one of its consequences, namely the fall of a major bank in the USA ... This publication and the anticipation of the crisis were viewed by some areas of foresight as very brave compared to the hesitancy of trend research projections has performed within political correctness.

In 2009 the publishing house Anticipolis was founded, which among other things has published books such as the “Handbook of Political Anticipation”, a small book that contains the main features of the method of political anticipation.

Franck Biancheri, head of studies at LEAP and founder of the Political Anticipation Method, published his work "After the Crisis - Towards the World of Tomorrow" (Anticipolis Publishing), in which he describes the evolution of yesterday's world into tomorrow's world forecast from 2010 to 2020.

Teaching

In 2010 LEAP is offering a course in collaboration with the Sorbonne in Paris on Political Anticipation. In March 2012, the Foundation for Education and Training of Political Anticipation (FEFAP) was established, which offers regular courses on Political Anticipation in four languages ​​via video conferences and online forums. The monitoring and updating of the method of political anticipation is carried out by IRPA (International Council for Political Anticipation) based in Hamburg.

method

The method of political anticipation is based on the establishment of measures that make it possible to influence the development of future events. Short, medium and long-term trends are identified and the elements that accelerate or slow down these tendencies are assessed. The method foresees the events that can provoke a rupture of tendencies.

It is necessary to be precise with the date, i. H. indicate the exact date and place where the political anticipation will take place, as well as the date on which the forecast event will ultimately take place. In addition, great importance is attached to objectivity through credible sources of information and self-criticism of the wishes and prejudices of the authors of political anticipation. Assessing the successes of Political Anticipation is an integral part of the method after the allotted date. This analysis enables the development of one's own ability to anticipate and improves future anticipations.

application

Predicting events is a necessity to improve decision making in complex societies.

"When you are steering a small boat, you make the decision to change course and you do so at the same time. If you are steering a super tanker, in order to be able to change course (anticipate) at a certain point in time, you must initiate the course change now (political act). " Franck Biancheri.

The method of political anticipation can be used in decision-making in various areas or disciplines, both at the individual, company and institutional level. It is used both for decisions regarding economic or family concerns by consultants, economists and industry experts who integrate possible future developments into their consultancy analyzes or by institutions that are active in the field of innovation.

The method seeks to break the monopoly and misuse of the power of the institutions' timeline and to spread anticipation in our society in general. The clarity of the reports of political anticipation is one of the aspects taught in the method. Visual elements, a generally understandable vocabulary, explanations of lesser known concepts allow the method to be used by everyone who has to make decisions, be it in the personal, professional, economic, political or technical area.

Multidisciplinarity is another property as all aspects are interrelated and a monodisciplinary view would offer an incomplete view of reality.

criticism

The name "Political Anticipation" suggests that the method applies only to the field of politics. This statement is reinforced by the fact that the practical application in the GEAB Bulletin concerns the area of ​​international politics. However, the authors of the method are of the opinion that universal application is possible and interpret the adjective "political" in the sense of influencing the future of the development and implementation of specific measures.

Another point of criticism is that the method is relatively new and therefore only a few concrete results on the verification or falsification of forecasts are available.

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ GEAB - Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin
  2. ^ LEAP - European Laboratory of Political Anticipation

Web links

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