Psychohistory

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Psychohistory (English: Psychohistory , not to be confused with Psychohistory , a science that examines historical processes using psychology) is a German-language term for a fictional science that is of decisive importance in several novels by the American author Isaac Asimov . In Asimov's books, on the basis of mathematical, statistical and sociological methods, it enables general and yet precise predictions about the future behavior of large groups of people.

Foundation cycle

Asimov constructed psychohistory in his Science Fiction novels of the Foundation cycle as a sociological-mathematical science by means of which the decline of the Galactic Empire could be predicted and a plan could be developed to mark the time of the interregnum between the old and a future galactic empire shorten. The concept was initially introduced in five short stories (1942–1944), which were merged in 1951 as the Roman Foundation .

In the corresponding novels, it is the mathematician Hari Seldon who develops psychohistory and leads it to its prime. He calculates that the galactic empire of humanity, which has existed for about 12,000 years, will collapse a few centuries later. According to his calculations, the ensuing interregnum in chaos and barbarism would take 30,000 years until a second galactic empire of mankind can finally establish itself.

Seldon warns the rulers of the empire of the impending collapse, but is not listened to due to the suspicious spirit of the time, which is marked by the freezing of the initiative. Instead, he falls out of favor and, through his behavior, causes the imperial government to give him an ultimatum: he can either be executed or relocate to a planet on the edge of the inhabited galaxy with his entire psycho-historical research project.

Seldon had calculated this reaction of the imperial government with the help of psychohistory. Exile was an integral part of his plan. Using the pretext of creating the Encyclopaedia Galactica and the imperial government ultimatum, Seldon persuades the project's scientists and their families of the need to relocate them to the planet Terminus. From this scientific nucleus emerged over the centuries the Foundation Empire , which eventually dominated large parts of the galactic outskirts from which the crumbling galactic empire has withdrawn.

The core of Seldon's project are the humanities scholars who remain underground on the planet Trantor (seat of government of the galactic empire), who over time influence and direct the galactic history of mankind by means of psychohistory. Asimov gave this group of scientists the name "Second Foundation" (German: "Second Foundation"). In contrast to the scientists at Terminus, whose work aimed at and brought about the political control of galactic territories, the attention of the scientists who stayed behind on Trantor was concentrated on the exploration and control of human consciousness or spirit.

Basics

According to Michael F. Flynn, Asimov's psychohistory is based not only on psychology but also on concepts of gas kinetics and statistical mechanics .

In psychohistory, each individual is viewed analogously to a gas molecule that can assume different "individual" states. Because the future behavior of a single individual cannot be predicted precisely, but only a certain probability for each possible behavior pattern, “only” the behavior of sufficiently large groups of people, such as the entire population of a planet, is calculated. Asimov drew an analogy to the properties of gas molecules: Here an observer can hardly calculate the direction of movement of an individual gas molecule. The direction of movement of large quantities of gas molecules, for example with regard to their speed or their distribution, can, however, be calculated with a high degree of probability.

Asimov's fictional psychohistory is based on the assumption that the general course of future social developments can be calculated using empirical, statistically evaluable laws. Because of this, it is assumed in psychohistory that with enough time and effort, the behavior of population groups can be influenced and controlled in such a way that an intended direction of development can gradually be brought about. According to psychohistory, the prerequisite for the effectiveness of the influence is that the individual individuals of a given population do not know what kind of influence is being exerted on them. If they knew about it, this would have made the number of possible decision alternatives too large, so that the statistical probability of the occurrence of the intended development would have become too low. For this reason there were no psychologists in the original scientist colony at Terminus except Alurin . The latter was privy to the project and therefore only imparted rudimentary knowledge of psychology to the group.

Axioms

Hari Seldon introduced two axioms for psychohistory:

  • the size of the population group whose behavior is to be modeled must be sufficiently large
  • the population group must remain ignorant of the results of the psychohistorical analysis

A third underlying axiom was seen as trivial and thus not explicitly postulated:

  • man is the only intelligent life form in the galaxy.

The primary radian

The primary radiant is a device with which the psychohistorical formulas and equations for predicting future developments can be displayed visually. Like a beamer, the formulas are displayed in an unspecified manner, for example on walls or in the room, the interaction takes place by means of mental control of the primary radius. Among other things, the display can be enlarged or rotated, the formulas edited and comments inserted. In principle, all changes remain anonymous.

A new student who is expected to participate in the project in the future must introduce his own additions to the psychohistorical plan and defend it against rigorous scrutiny by five different commissions that rigorously examine the underlying mathematical formulas. A new review takes place after two years. After successful completion, the addition is finally inserted.

The primary radian represents formulas and equations with a colored coding to enable psychohistorians to interpret them quickly.

  • Seldon Black follows the original plan developed by Seldon and Amaryl during their first four decades at the University of Streeling. This is where the so-called Seldon crises, the duration of the plan and the appearance of the second Galactic Empire are determined.
  • Speaker Red are the additions added by the leading psychohistorians of the Second Foundation after Seldon's death. This is probably where Gaal Dornick began as the Foundation's second first speaker.
  • Deviation blue are observed deviations from the psychohistorical projections, with a standard deviation greater than 1.5 compared to the predicted result (1.5 σ). In particular, the appearance of a mutant called a “mule”, who was able to mentally control people's emotions, produced strong deviations between 0.5 and ten sigmas compared to the original plan. It took a full century of work by the Second Foundation to bring galactic development back into line with the Seldon Plan.

The following additional colors, mentioned by Asimov, were invented by fans:

  • Notation Green: Additions through relevant scientific work (Forward the Foundation).
  • Projection Purple: a useful representation, used later for teaching purposes, to show the limits of Speaker Red equations (Forward the Foundation).

See also

Web links

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ Michael F. Flynn: Introduction to Psychohistory in Isaac Asimov's science fiction novel The Foundation Trilogy . Heyne Verlag, Munich 2004. Pages 827 to 901. ISBN 3-453-16417-2 .
  2. ^ Isaak Asimov: The Foundation Trilogy . Everyman's Library (Alfred A. Knopf), New York, London, Toronto, ISBN 978-0-307-59396-2 , pp. 69 .