Surebet

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Surebet (from the English "safe bet") is a bet in which it is possible to make a profit regardless of the outcome of the bet.

A surebet is usually only possible by analyzing the odds of as many bookmakers as possible in order to identify such a bet.

description

A surebet is present if it is possible to achieve a profit in any case by skillfully betting on all outcomes. No bookmaker will calculate their odds in such a way that this is possible, so the odds of different bookmakers must be taken into account, as they can differ.

There are Internet services that analyze as many betting providers as possible in order to identify a surebet. Since betting providers also use these services and adjust their odds quickly, surebets are usually only possible for a short time.

Problems and Risks

Since betting providers do not want surebets, the bookmakers try to prevent them as much as possible. This is done on the one hand by adjusting the odds and on the other hand by limiting customers who are noticed by exploiting surebets. Since several bets have to be placed with different bookmakers, it can happen that the odds of a bookmaker are adjusted after a bet has already been made. As a result, it is no longer a safe bet and a loss occurs.

An even greater loss can occur if a bookmaker retrospectively cancels a bet on the grounds that the odds were incorrect. Since the expected profits are mostly in the lower single-digit percentage range, a large number of surebets have to be achieved in order to compensate for a loss caused by a cancellation.

The different terms and conditions of the bookmakers must also be taken into account, as they differ in some cases, for example when playing tennis.

Since the introduction of the betting tax by the Racing Betting and Lottery Act of 5%, the possibility of safe bets in Germany has drastically decreased.

example

For a sports bet in tennis there are the following odds:

  • Odds at betting company X if player A wins: 1.8
  • Odds at betting company Y if player B wins: 2.5

If you bet 100 units on player A, the profit is 180 units if player A wins. If you bet 72 units on player B at the same time, the profit is 180 units if player B wins. By using a total of 172 units, you get 180 units in any case, regardless of the outcome of the bet, with a profit of 8 units.

Mathematically

Let n be the number of all possible outcomes of bets (e.g. in tennis 2 (win player 1 / win player 2) and in football 3 (win team 1 / draw / win team 2)) and q i be the offered odds for event i , then:

Bookmaker Profit Ratio = 1 / q 1 + 1 / q 2 +… + 1 / q n

If the bookmaker's win rate is <1, there is a surebet.

To save yourself the manual calculation, there are a large number of websites that offer a Surebet calculator. For this, the respective odds and the desired stake must be entered. The result shows whether it is a safe bet and how the stake must be distributed so that the profit is roughly the same for every outcome of the game.

literature

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