The Next Decade

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The geopolitical study The Next Decade (in German: The next decade ) was from 2011 George Friedman published. It contains forecasts of the relations of the United States of America with other countries and the world situation in the period up to 2020. The book is also about the paradox of "Empire and Republic". The book also addresses demographic, technological, and economic issues, particularly those affecting the period up to 2020.

The main topic is the regional states of equilibrium that the US government must create or restore. The successful influence of the USA in the world, according to Friedman, is not based on the application of direct coercion, but on the creation of competitive relationships in which one force neutralizes the other. Seen in this way, Iraq was a counterweight to Iran, Japan is currently a counterpart to China. In Friedman's view, in the second decade of the twenty-first century, the United States must be mature enough to use its power in this way.

argumentation

Europe

Friedman regards the confrontation between Russia and NATO , and especially the US, as inevitable. The USA has to ally itself with Poland and prevent an understanding between Germany and Russia. In his opinion, the USA must give up the Baltic countries, as they are more of a burden. Russia must be allowed to increase its sphere of influence. For this, however, Russia would have to provide maximum consideration so that Turkey can balance out Russian influence in the Caucasus. In Friedman's view, a new Cold War is not to be expected, since Russia is too vulnerable and, due to its demographic and infrastructural problems, could not hold out a larger role in international politics for a long time.

middle East

Friedman advises withdrawing from Israel, which is strategically secure and can survive on its own without being too dependent on American support. The US should move closer to the Arab countries and create a balance of power. In a deal with Iran, it should be granted a security zone. An alliance with Turkey could act as a counterweight to Iran and Israel.

Friedman sees Israel's situation as safe because its Arab neighbors are in a balance of power. The main danger is the intervention or alienation of great powers because of the conflict between Palestinians and Israel. The US must therefore wisely manage the conflict between the two groups.

Asia

China faces long-term problems in the economy, as its production-oriented economy cannot be sustained by an impoverished population. When other sources of cheap labor emerge, it must strengthen domestic security and tax the affluent coastal regions more heavily to support the impoverished regions in the interior. After all, the main task of the government will be to halt the fragmentation and disintegration of the country. In the long term, there is a risk that China will split up into autonomous regions.

In the meantime, Japan will continue its strategic partnership with the US. Its aging and shrinking population will make it necessary to exploit workers in other countries, including China, especially since its population is unable to integrate large numbers of immigrants. The US must balance the growing power of Japan by accommodating China's economy in order to keep it stable in order to offset the Japanese influence. Likewise, the US will ally itself with and support South Korea so that North Korea can absorb it when the two countries are reunited.

The US will forge strategic alliances with Korea, Australia and Singapore to secure its dominance in the western Pacific.

The US will withdraw from Afghanistan, after which the Taliban will regain control of the country. Assistance to Pakistan continues. Pakistan will restrict the Taliban and prevent the rise of India. US military support to Pakistan will continue to push India to focus on its land forces rather than building a navy that could jeopardize US supremacy in the region.

Africa

Africa will continue to suffer wars because of its irrational colonial borders. In time, stable nations will emerge, including some larger countries. The best policy will be to leave Africa alone and provide humanitarian aid as the wars progressively redraw the borders of the countries.

Latin America

Other than the threat of drugs and illegal immigration from Mexico and relations with Cuba, there are no factors that could jeopardize US security. An agreement should be concluded with Cuba. Other events in Latin America are of little importance, only Brazil has the potential to question the power of the USA in the future.

output

Web links

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ George Friedman: America's Greatest Challenge . The Daily Beast. January 28, 2011.
  2. ^ J. Peter Pham: The Next Decade, by George Friedman . San Francisco Gate. February 6, 2011.