Election cycle

The election cycle (also known as surge and decline ) is a concept of political science election research . In the time when there are no elections, the answers to questions about voting intention change systematically without resulting in permanent changes in preferences.

During the election period governments often make decisions that are not as popular as their election promises in the election campaign . In polling situations, voters of the ruling parties say during the elective period that they would not re-elect the ruling parties. You switch to the opposition or state that you do not want to vote. This leads to an overestimation of the opposition parties in the publications of the Sunday questions, which here measure only a temporary mood. The closer to an actual election date, the more the voters remember their earlier attitudes.

The election cycle can u. a. empirically prove with normal election analyzes , in which the party identification of the respondents is the basis.

literature

• Angus Campbell : Surge and Decline: A Study of Electoral Change . In: Angus Campbell, Philip E. Converse et al .: Elections and Political Order . Wiley, New York 1966. pp. 40-62.
• Hans Rattinger : Normal election analysis of monthly party preferences in West Germany from 1978 to 1994 . In: Max Kaase, Hans-Dieter Klingmann: Elections and voters: analyzes on the occasion of the 1994 federal election . Westdeutscher Verlag, Opladen 1998, ISBN 3-531-13296-2 , pp. 357-390.