Probability neglect

As neglect of probability ( English : probability neglect ) the tendency is called, the probability estimate small risks wrong. Small risks are either completely ignored or grossly overestimated.

Probability neglect occurs mainly in emotional situations. The fear of the consequences of a threatening scenario leads not only to an overestimation of the probability of occurrence, but also to an overestimation of the benefits of preventive and protective measures. This overestimation can in turn have detrimental consequences for personal and political decisions. A frequently cited example is the exaggerated fear of terrorist attacks. If this leads to more people traveling by car than by plane, neglect of probability can cost many lives because flying is actually less risky than driving.

literature

Cass R. Sunstein : Probability Neglect: Emotions, Worst Cases, and Law. In: The Yale Law Journal. 112, pp. 61-107.

Individual evidence

↑ Daniel Kahneman : Fast thinking, slow thinking . Siedler, 2012, p. 181.
↑ Andreas Hensel : Target group-specific communication on food safety - the “customers” of the BfR. BLL Annual Meeting 2008, Health and Safety - From Science to Consumers. Berlin, April 17, 2008.
^ Cass R. Sunstein, Richard Zeckhauser: Dreadful Possibilities, Neglected Probabilities. In: Erwann Michel-Kerjan, Paul Slovic (eds.): The Irrational Economist. Making Decisions in a Dangerous World. Public Affairs Books, 2010, pp. 116–123.

[1] Daniel Kahneman : Fast thinking, slow thinking . Siedler, 2012, p. 181.

[2] Andreas Hensel : Target group-specific communication on food safety - the “customers” of the BfR. BLL Annual Meeting 2008, Health and Safety - From Science to Consumers. Berlin, April 17, 2008.

[3] Cass R. Sunstein, Richard Zeckhauser: Dreadful Possibilities, Neglected Probabilities. In: Erwann Michel-Kerjan, Paul Slovic (eds.): The Irrational Economist. Making Decisions in a Dangerous World. Public Affairs Books, 2010, pp. 116–123.