Dependency quotient

The dependency quotient is a term used in demography . It indicates the ratio of the number of people who are not of working age to the number of people of working age in a society.

The dependency quotient is made up of two components. The old-age quotient indicates the ratio of the number of older people to the number of younger people in a society and is usually more precisely defined as the ratio of the number of people who are no longer of working age to the number of people of working age . The terms “age quotient”, “stress ratio” or “old age burden ratio” are used largely synonymously with the term “old age quotient”. The youth quotient represents the second component and accordingly indicates the ratio of the number of people who are not yet of working age to the number of people of working age .

These quotients relate exclusively to the age limits and do not consider questions of actual employment and employability of the people.

calculation

The old-age quotient indicates the statistical ratio of people who are no longer of working age (mostly from 65 or 60 years) to those of working age (mostly from 15 or 20 years to 64 or 59 years). It always refers to a specific population at a specific point in time. It is customary to calculate an old-age quotient from the number of people aged 65 and over in relation to the number of 15 to 64 year olds (i.e. in relation to the number of people of typical working age). A different choice of age limits is also possible. The limits used should always be indicated accordingly.

The youth ratio is accordingly usually under 15 years of age relative to the number of 15 to 64 year olds in the number.

The dependency quotient gives the number of those who are under 15 or over 64 years old, again related to the number of 15 to 64 year olds. It is therefore the sum of the old age and youth quotient.

${\displaystyle {\text{Altenquotient}}={\frac {\text{Bevölkerung ab 65 Jahre}}{\text{Bevölkerung 15–64 Jahre}}}}$

${\displaystyle {\text{Jugendquotient}}={\frac {\text{Bevölkerung 0–14 Jahre}}{\text{Bevölkerung 15–64 Jahre}}}}$

${\displaystyle {\text{Abhängigenquotient}}={\frac {\text{Bevölkerung 0–14 Jahre oder ab 65 Jahre}}{\text{Bevölkerung 15–64 Jahre}}}={\text{Altenquotient}}+{\text{Jugendquotient}}}$

The calculated quotient can be specified as a decimal number with decimal places (e.g. by specifying an old-age quotient of 0.20 with a ratio of 1 to 5). It is common to multiply the value by a factor of 100 (in the example mentioned, the old-age quotient would result in 20 in the sense of 20 older people per 100 younger people).

Sometimes there is also an indication as a percentage . Strictly speaking, however, specifying a percentage value is wrong and should be avoided , since the quotient always describes a ratio or a size ratio of two different populations. Percentages, on the other hand, mostly cover part of a whole. Since the denominator in the mathematical definition does not include the total population but the working age population, a percentage would be misleading. This becomes clear with a hypothetical numerical example: with a dependency quotient of 1.0 (or 100), there would be just as many people inside and outside the working age based on age; if it were given as “100%”, the wrong impression would be given that the age of all persons is outside the working age.

Current data

In 2005, the old-age quotient in Germany was around 32, while in 1957 it was still 17, which is probably the case. a. can be justified with the many victims of the Second World War, which ended in 1945, and the significantly lower life expectancy of people after the hardships and consequences of the Second World War.

The Commission on Sustainability in Financing Social Security Systems, chaired by Bert Rürup, puts this factor at 24.2 for 2000 , 34.9 for 2030 and 52.6 for 2040.

In 2006 the Federal Statistical Office forecast an AQ of 50 and 52 for the year 2030; in 2050 it should be 60 and 64 respectively.

From the report of the Federal Statistical Office published in 2011 entitled How do children live in Germany? shows that in no other country of the European Union live so few children as in Germany; so only 16.5 percent of the more than 81 million German citizens are younger than 18 years.

criticism

The dependency quotient does have the advantage of showing both demographic groups that are socially dependent on employed people. The depiction of the dependent quota in the demographic change from the post-war period onwards, however, indicates an unsustainable (increasing) level in the development of the quotient. The fact that (depending on the age categorization of the workforce) forecasts for the next few decades will continue to be lower than the value around 1900, for example, is ignored. Due to increasing productivity in the course of the 20th century, fewer workers are required for the same amount of funding, which means that the quotas are less comparable in a year-on-year comparison: Current high quotas would therefore be more economically manageable.

It should also be taken into account that the earlier figures should be viewed with caution. According to the 2011 census, for example, the number of people over 90 had to be revised downwards significantly, for men over 90 by 30 percent. But even with the population of the FRG as a whole there was a correction downwards from around 82 million to around 80 million according to the 2011 census.

Individual evidence

1. ↑ ^{a b} Population of Germany by 2050 (PDF) p. 23. Accessed on September 25, 2010
2. ↑ https://www.destatis.de/DE/PresseService/Presse/Pressekonferenz/2011/Mikro_Kinder/mikro_kinder_pk.html# Change to the overview page of the press conference
3. ↑ https://www.bib.bund.de/DE/Fakten/Fakt/B16-Jugendquotient-Altenquotient-Gesamtquotient-1871-Vorausberechnung.html;jsessionid=CB35B956D578627A1C87A16F54CD4D8C.1_cid380