In the context of globalization, companies are confronted with increasing complexity (including a variety of products, variants, laws, norms, geographies, cultures) or create them themselves. Companies must and begin to learn to deal with this complexity and other external effects. The predictions of future developments are reduced to "probability figures". The decisions to be made are then based on these probabilities and in increasingly complex systems can only make very limited probable statements.
Corporate Evolution tries to provide decision support in this environment. To serve u. a. Building analogies to understand the “behavior” and “development” of companies depending on the most varied of influencing factors, to justify them and to make them accessible to an experimental investigation in (simulation-capable) models. Answers aim at topics of adaptability and survivability by dealing with anticipation .
Forecasts in the sense of legal statements are not possible in complex economic contexts. Company development can be thought in advance by creating scenarios in "evolutionary paths" but cannot be predicted. A “prediction” can at most be made about the desired direction and the target values assumed and to be striven for by target setting. This prediction relates to “we want to hold on to it and do everything possible within the framework of influenceability and controllability”.
The formation of analogies as a method for gaining knowledge is scientifically controversial. The business model defines the company as an organization with identity . Companies with a homologous business model (e.g. oil companies) define a "type" as a group of industry . Identity can evolve analogously to mutation of genes. Selection in competition is analogous to selection in biology. The formation of analogies can be understood and used almost arbitrarily. The necessary limitation of analogy formation is purpose-oriented. As a rule, the procedure is based on the specific decision question.
With simulation, anticipation becomes more possible from a management perspective
- Consequences of action
presented in (computer) calculated and possibly animated scenarios and evaluations.
- Klaus-Stephan Otto , Uwe Nolting, Christel Bässler: Evolution management, learning from nature , ISBN 3-446-40437-6
- Knut Bleicher : The concept of integrated management
- Sandra Mitchell: Complexities. Why we are only just beginning to understand the world ( ISBN 978-3-518-26001-2 , first edition 2008, especially p. 108ff)