Mierscheid law
The Mierscheid law is a satirical election forecasting process that is attributed to the fictional member of the Bundestag Jakob M. Mierscheid . It was published on July 14, 1983 in the SPD party newspaper Vorwärts .
Text and explanations
It is said:
- The SPD's share of the vote [in percent] is based on the index of German crude steel production in the old federal states - measured in millions of tons - in the year of the general election. There is also a special rule for early federal elections. The crude steel values of the original and actual election year must be averaged here.
accuracy
Although the “law” assumes a correlation between two parameters that are not causally linked , this often resulted in better forecast values for the past than the scientifically based election forecasting methods. The accuracy of the law was confirmed fairly well in around 2002: crude steel production in 2002 was 38.6 million tons, and the SPD's share of the vote in the 2002 Bundestag election was 38.5%. In the years before that, too, the Mierscheid Act was roughly applicable: At the time of the Kohl government , crude steel production was very low; the same thing happened to the votes of the SPD. Only in 1998 the crude steel products of the old countries had risen to 38.45 million tons; the SPD won the election with 40.9%.
In the election year 2005, production in the old federal states was around 40 million tons. For the first time since 1990, the Mierscheid Act showed a particularly large deviation (SPD election result: 34.2%). It remains to be seen whether an adjustment does not appear necessary. For example, “share of the vote of the SPD and the Left Party” instead of “share of the vote of the SPD”, as was the case with the expansion of the law to all of Germany after reunification. The political spectrum was given a new facet for the 2005 Bundestag election with the Left Party, which Mierscheid could not yet have foreseen. In 2009 the trend was correct (worst result since the Federal Republic of Germany was founded), but the result of the SPD was significantly worse than the Mierscheid law would have shown.
Mierscheid cycle
In a continuation of the Mierscheid satire, a theory on the legitimacy of the SPD's participation in government was published in January 2009 under the name of the fictitious member of the Bundestag. According to the Mierscheid cycle , government participation and opposition alternate over a period of 15 to 17 years. After the Federal Republic of Germany was founded in 1949, the SPD was in the opposition for 17 years, followed by 16 years of government until 1982 and then again for 16 years of opposition.
“Mierscheid” calculated from this that the SPD will provide parts of the federal government until April 10, 2016, which was not confirmed in the 2009 Bundestag election .
Web links
- Frankfurter Rundschau (Mierscheidgesetz 1961 - 2009)
- Bundestag.de - 19 years of the Mierscheid Act ( Memento from August 18, 2003 in the Internet Archive )
- Helmut Norpoth / Thomas Gschwend - Against All Odds? ( Memento from January 5, 2004 in the Internet Archive )
- Wahlrecht.de-Lexicon - Mierscheid law
- Wahlrecht.de of January 10, 2003 - Mierscheid law 2002 officially confirmed
- Wahlrecht.de of July 11, 2005 - According to Mierscheid law SPD at 40%
- Wahlrecht.de of April 1, 2007 - Mierscheid law fails for the 2005 Bundestag election
- Mierscheid in an interview with taz (July 18, 2005)
- Mierscheid-Walla law (PDF file; 296 kB)