Probabilistic statement

A probabilistic statement (also: probability statement ) says about a situation (such as in the occurrence of an event) that this to a certain probability exists.

With the exception of logical conclusions or conclusions based on strictly deterministic laws, in many cases there is insufficient justification for claiming certainty for certain facts. Often, however, absolute or relative, exact or approximate probability ratings can be given; so only probability statements are possible. Such statements generally do not allow the determination of individual cases; rather, they are statistical statements about regularly occurring events. Otherwise, however, different philosophical interpretations of probabilities are being debated. A borderline case to the non-probabilistic statement is a probability rating of 1.

Examples

Example: "The probability that a student with an Abitur grade of at least 3 will achieve a university degree within five years is eighty percent."

In the social sciences in particular , many statements must remain probabilistic, e. B. with survey results and election forecasts . Probabilistic statements also play a major role in bioinformatics , since there are large amounts of data, but little knowledge about the details of the processes from which these data arise. In general, the underlying model should be derived from the incomplete and incorrect data.

The basis of many probabilistic models (estimation of the probability of relevance ) can be traced back to Bayes ' theorem .

Formal logic, with fuzzy logic , probabilistic or possibilistic logic, provides instruments for handling probability statements. These techniques are used in different disciplines, for example in different areas of computer science, for example for knowledge-based systems.

In physics , most of the quantum mechanical calculations of later system states are only probabilistic, see Born's rule .

literature

• Hans Reichenbach / Andreas Kamlah / Godehard Link: Probability Theory , Vieweg and Teubner 1994, ISBN 3528083670

Web links

Wiktionary: probabilistic  - explanations of meanings, word origins, synonyms, translations

• Alan Hájek:  Interpretations of Probability. In: Edward N. Zalta (Ed.): Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy .
• Christopher Hitchcock:  Probabilist Causation. In: Edward N. Zalta (Ed.): Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy .

Individual evidence

1. ↑ s. for an overview A. Hájek