Retrodiction
The retrodiction (also retrognosis ) refers to statements about events or conditions in the past, which are deductively-nomologically derived from later events or conditions. The German scientific theorist Carl Gustav Hempel , who decisively developed the deductive-nomological model, referred to retrodiction as postdiction , which was also translated as postdiction or postdiction .
The retrodiction is similar to the prediction (also called prognosis or prediction), only that what one wants to make a statement about is in the prediction in the future . “The prediction of a past but unknown condition is a retrospective. “ Retrodiction differs from an explanation of a past event in the sense of the deductive-nomological model in that the antecedent event occurs later than the conclusion event (the one about which the statement is made).
The explanation, prediction and retrodiction thus differ in the chronological sequence of the antecedent event (A), conclusion event (E) and formulation of the argument (D):
- Explanation: A → E → D
- Prediction: A → D → E
- Retrodiction : E → A → D
Examples:
- The derivation of when a comet will be near the earth in the future, based on current astronomical data (and astronomical theory), is a prediction. However, the derivation from the current position of the comet is that it was 2 BC. Near the earth, a retrodiction. If one had reliable data about the location of the comet 1000 BC And would infer from this and from astronomical laws that it was 2 BC. Must have been near the earth, it would be an explanation according to the above scheme.
- An example from linguistics is presented in the “Linguistics” section under the heading of forecasting .
A retrodiction is used if the explanandum is still unknown at the time the argument is formulated or in the explanans , i.e. H. the explanatory antecedents and laws or models, was not yet taken into account. Retrodictions, like predictions, can be useful for testing the explanans.
See also
Web links
- Wolfgang Langer: Theory of Science: Terms and Definitions ( Memento from January 22, 2016 in the Internet Archive ) (PDF file; 19 kB). Keyword retrodiction. Script for the lecture Methods of Empirical Social Research I. University of Halle, summer semester 2000.
Individual evidence
- ↑ a b Andrea Maurer, Michael Schmid: Explanatory Sociology: Basics, Representatives and Fields of Application of a Sociological Research Program . Springer, 2010, ISBN 978-3-531-92591-2 , The Hempel Model of Declaration.
- ^ Carl Gustav Hempel: Aspects of scientific explanation . Walter de Gruyter, 2012, ISBN 978-3-11-083048-4 , p. 94 .
- ^ Rainer Westermann : Philosophy of Science and Experimental Methodology. A textbook on psychological methodology. Hogrefe-Verlag für Psychologie , Göttingen, Bern, Toronto, Seattle 2000, p. 172, ISBN 3801710904
- ↑ a b Wolfgang Jagodzinski: Lecture Philosophy of Science, Section 6.2 DN explanation, DN prognosis, retrodictions and other systematizations. Archived from the original on June 13, 2007 ; accessed on February 11, 2020 .
- ↑ On the question of when an explanandum is not taken into account or "new" in the explanans: Eric Christian Barnes: Prediction versus Accommodation. In: Edward N. Zalta (Ed.): Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy .