Sabermetrics

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The term Sabermetrics stands for analysis in baseball using objective evidence, especially statistics . The term is derived from SABR ( Society for American Baseball Research ), an association that deals with the scientific research of the sport of baseball. The term Sabermetrics was coined by Bill James , who was one of the first to deal with statistical analysis of baseball and has since been one of the best-known proponents of Sabermetrics alongside Nate Silver .

Principles

One of the fundamentals of Sabermetrics is to critically question the content and meaningfulness of statistics in order to decide to what extent they can be used for analyzes at all. Classic statistics such as the batting average , RBIs or pitcher wins are not considered useful because they are either

  • consider only a partial aspect of a player's performance (example: the batting average does not take into account extra base hits or walks ),
  • correlate poorly with the runs achieved (example: the batting average correlates significantly worse than e.g. the on-base percentage ) or
  • Mixing individual and team performances (example: RBIs and wins cannot be achieved by one player alone).

Tactical elements of the game such as base stealing or bunts are also viewed critically because statistical analyzes have shown that in many cases these have no positive benefit. By critically questioning established methods and tactics, some of which have been accepted for over a hundred years, Sabermetrics is severely criticized by some baseball traditionalists, without, however, refuting the methodologies or statistical bases.

The main methods of Sabermetrics include:

  • Development of statistics that correlate as well as possible with the number of runs achieved or given
  • Development of statistics that capture the entire performance of a player and not just partial aspects
  • Analysis of statistics taking into account all framework conditions such as epoch or stadium influences

Sabermetrics in Germany

For the German baseball and softball sport there are almost no publications on Sabermetrics, apart from a few entries on websites, in blogs or in discussion forums. However, the statistics for the national and regional leagues of the German Baseball and Softball Association have been continuously expanded in recent years and modern statistics such as OPS and Range Factors are already available. An important step for improved analyzes was the introduction of expanded defensive statistics for the national and regional leagues in 2008 and 2009. By separating the defensive statistics according to positions and determining the defensive innings played, the informative value of the defensive statistics was significantly increased. With the introduction of the new DBV scoresheet in 2009, doubles, triples, sacrifice hits and sacrifice flies were also introduced as additional pitcher statistics, so that opponents 'OBP and opponents' SLG can now also be calculated.

This means that there is sufficient data in the offensive, defensive and pitching areas for Sabermetrics analyzes, even if the available material cannot keep up with the data available for Major League Baseball . Detailed situational stats and play-by-play data will not be available in the long term due to the amateur status of German baseball and the largely voluntary data entry.

First, it would have to be clarified whether the established Sabermetrics statistics are also applicable to German baseball. Although the game is played by the same rules as in Major League Baseball, there are differences in the course of the game due to the lower level. In German baseball there is z. B. significantly more walks, hit-by-pitches, stolen bases, errors, wild pitches and passed balls than in MLB, but fewer extra base hits and, above all, fewer home runs. So the production of runs is different and this presumably affects the accuracy of runner estimation methods. Initial analyzes have shown that the normal Runs Created formula estimates the runs in the German Bundesliga far too low.

Offensive stats

Defensive stats

Pitching statistics

Overall ratings

See also

Web links

literature

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ http://stats.baseball-softball.de/
  2. ↑ Scoring guidelines for the national leagues, German Baseball and Softball Association, 2008
  3. ↑ modification sheet 10 to the scoring book, German Baseball and Softball Association, 2009
  4. ^ Title: Equivalent average and equivalent runs , Author: Clay Davenport , Journal: Baseball Prospectus 1999, pp. 1-7 , date: 1999
  5. ↑ Title: The Hidden Game of Baseball , Authors: John Thorn and Pete Palmer , Publisher: Doubleday , Date: March 19, 1985
  6. ↑ Title: The Hidden Game of Baseball , Authors: John Thorn and Pete Palmer , Publisher: Doubleday , Date: March 19, 1985
  7. ↑ Title: The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract , Author: Bill James , Publisher: Random House Value Publishing , Date: August 1992
  8. ↑ Title: Introducing XR (Extrapolated Runs) , Author: Jim Furtado , Journal: Big Bad Baseball Annual 1999, pp. 479-484 , date: 1999
  9. ↑ Title: The Hidden Game of Baseball , Authors: John Thorn and Pete Palmer , Publisher: Doubleday , Date: March 19, 1985
  10. ↑ Title: Win Shares , Author: Bill James , Publisher: STATS Publishing Inc , Date: March 2002