Nate Silver

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Nate Silver (2009)

Nathaniel Read "Nate" Silver (born January 13, 1978 in East Lansing , Michigan ) is an American statistician , Sabermetrician , election researcher and publicist . Silver first won public recognition for developing PECOTA, an algorithm named after Bill Pecota for predicting the performance and career development of baseball players .

In 2007, Silver began to publish analyzes and forecasts for the 2008 US presidential election under the pseudonym "Poblano" . From March 2008 to August 2010, Silver ran its own website, FiveThirtyEight , named for the number of electors in Electoral College . The accuracy of his prediction for the 2008 presidential election - his model was correct for all states except Indiana - brought Silver worldwide attention. He also predicted the winners of all 35 elections to the US Senate this year applicable. In April 2009, Time magazine named him one of the world's 100 most influential personalities.

From August 2010 to July 2013, Silver's data journalism blog was part of the New York Times website . Silver's blog was purchased by ESPN in July 2013 and went back online on March 17, 2014 under the domain FiveThirtyEight.com . For this purpose, Silver put together a team of 20 journalists and programmers who, in addition to sports, also cover the categories of politics, business, science and life.

Silver's book "The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't", which conveys the statistical basis of forecasting for a general audience, was published in September 2012.

In the 2012 US presidential election , Silver correctly predicted the winners for all 50 states and the District of Columbia . However, some of his predictions, especially the midterm elections ( 2010 and 2014 ), which attract less attention and voters , did not predict correctly Silver . For the 2016 US presidential election , he predicted Hillary Clinton would be 48.5% (302.2), Donald Trump 44.9% (235.0), Gary E. Johnson 5.0% and others 1.6% (0 , 8) of the votes (electors) obtained with a 71.4% chance of Clinton becoming president. The actual results were Clinton 48.2% (232), Trump 46.1% (306), Johnson 3.3%, and another 2.4% (0) of the votes (electors) with Trump as President.

Publications

  • Nate Silver: The Signal and the Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail - But Some Don't. Penguin, New York 2012, ISBN 978-1-59420-411-1 .
    • German by Holger Wolandt and Lotta Rüegger: The calculation of the future. Why most predictions are wrong and some are true anyway . Heyne, Munich 2013, ISBN 978-3-453-20048-7 .

Web links

Individual evidence

  1. ^ Bill James: The 2009 TIME 100: Nate Silver. In: Time.com , April 30, 2009.
  2. ↑ About FiveThirtyEight. ( Memento of the original from March 18, 2014 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. In: The New York Times . @1@ 2Template: Webachiv / IABot / fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com
  3. ↑ Roger Yu: FiveThirtyEight focuses on data-driven stories. In: USA Today , March 17, 2014.
  4. ↑ Sebastian Dörfler: Perfect election prognosis. The end of chance? In: Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung , November 8, 2012.
  5. ^ Luke Brinker: How did Nate Silver's forecasts stack up against midterm results? In: Salon.com , November 5, 2014.
  6. ↑ Nate Silver: Final Election Update: There's A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton. November 8, 2016
personal data
SURNAME Silver, Nate
ALTERNATIVE NAMES Silver, Nathaniel Read (full name)
BRIEF DESCRIPTION American statistician
DATE OF BIRTH January 13, 1978
PLACE OF BIRTH East Lansing , Michigan