Will Rogers phenomenon
The Will-Rogers phenomenon ( English stage migration ) is an effect in the averaging of groups: By changing an element from one group to the other, the mean value in both groups can rise (or fall).
Statisticians sometimes laconically speak of a criminal (data) organization .
It was named after Will Rogers (humorist and entertainer), who said: “ When the Okies left Oklahoma and moved to California, they raised the average intelligence level in both states. "(German:" Residents who moved from Oklahoma to California raised the average intelligence in both states. ")
example
In the community of A-Dorf the average income is 2.5 thalers, those in B-Dorf 7 thalers. If Mr X moves from B-Dorf with an income of 5 Talers to A-Dorf, the average income in both villages increases as
- Mr X in B village with his low income pulled the average down, and
- in A-Dorf due to its above-average income.
In numbers beforehand:
- A = {1, 2, 3, 4}, mean = 2.5
- B = {5, 6, 7, 8, 9}, mean = 7
However, if you move the 5 from B to A, you get
- A = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5}, mean = 3
- B = {6, 7, 8, 9}, mean = 7.5
As you can see, the mean values of both sets increase. Since the set of all values from the two sets did not change, the common mean value is unchanged 5.
Early detection of diseases
The Will-Rogers phenomenon also has effects in science: for example, statistics on life expectancy in cancer only simulate improved therapy through improved diagnostics, such as the early detection of diseases .
“The tumors are divided into large and small; As the diagnostic method improves, more parts of each tumor are discovered and tumors that would previously have been thought small are recognized as large. This removes the most dangerous specimens from the group of small tumors and adds them as the most harmless specimens to the group of large tumors - the curability seems to improve for both groups. In addition, very small tumors are now being discovered, which further increases the measured curability. "
literature
- Hans-Hermann Dubben , Hans-Peter Beck-Bornholdt: The appearance of the wise. Errors and misjudgments in everyday thinking. Rowohlt, ISBN 3-499-61450-2 .
- Christian Hesse : Beware of the thought trap . Beck, Munich 2011, ISBN 978-3-406-62204-5 .
Individual evidence
- ^ Will Rogers phenomenon (stage migration) , Wahlrecht.de
- ^ Alvan R. Feinstein , Daniel M. Sosin, Carolyn K. Wells: The Will Rogers Phenomenon . In: New England Journal of Medicine . tape 312 , no. 25 , June 20, 1985, pp. 1604-1608 , doi : 10.1056 / NEJM198506203122504 .
- ↑ 11th GWUP conference in Roßdorf, 24. – 26. 5th 2001