Talk:2006 Pacific typhoon season

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This is an old revision of this page, as edited by RattleMan (talk | contribs) at 20:38, 22 September 2006 (→‎98W.INVEST: 99W). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

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September

Week 1

92W.INVEST

located at 14.7N 165.5E -- グリフオーザー 05:11, 5 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

TCFA issued south-southeast of Wake Island. -- グリフオーザー 02:38, 6 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
re-issuance of TCFA now northeast of Wake Island -- グリフオーザー 05:09, 7 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Why is this not a tropical depression yet? This thing looks incredible. bob rulz 06:54, 8 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Aha, looks might be deceiving... could be that some bits of it are sheared away or something. But yes I agree this does look incredible, looks like an average tropical storm. Typhoonchaser 08:52, 8 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

TCFA cancelled, down to POOR. – Chacor 02:00, 9 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Wow, this thing completely collapsed. bob rulz 05:48, 9 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

93W.INVEST

New invest at 23.9N 135.3E. -- RattleMan 19:59, 6 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone. – Chacor 10:25, 8 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

14W.SHANSHAN

94W.INVEST

New invest at 13.6N 141.1E. -- RattleMan 03:52, 8 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JMA TD (<30 kt)

JMA TD in weather chart. I wouldn't add it to the article just yet as it's under 30 kt, but 94W is impressive on NRL. – Chacor 05:29, 9 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It does indeed look pretty good. bob rulz 05:49, 9 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
TCFA 285 nm north of Yap. -- グリフオーザー 14:45, 9 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
14W.NONAME
NRL has it hidden in the inactive directory -- グリフオーザー 01:13, 10 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Now up in plain view. -- RattleMan 02:02, 10 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

And the JMA has begun reporting on it. – Chacor 02:03, 10 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
It looks like a tropical storm in sat images. --IrfanFaiz 03:57, 10 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
T0613 SHANSHAN

Shanshan from the JMA. – Chacor 13:41, 10 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

This thing looks like it's growing bigger and stronger by the hour... Typhoonchaser 14:00, 10 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Tropical Storm Shanshan

TS from both JTWC and JMA now. – Chacor 14:52, 10 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Nice to see another cyclone in the WPac, its been somewhat of a long time. I hope it dosen't be a homo sapien slayer like Saomai. --§ Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (talk + contribs + userboxes) 19:15, 10 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Wow, yet another rpaidly-intesifying West Pacific storm. It's very close to typhoon intensity already. bob rulz 03:38, 11 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Probably up to typhoon within 6 hours. - SpLoT 13:50, 11 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Typhoon Shanshan

It's now a typhoon and still growing well. CrazyC83 00:00, 12 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Could be beginning rapid intenification to major typhoon status; well not much land in the way except its pointed toward the Korean peninsula. — § Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (T + U + E + C) - (Remembering 9/11) 00:59, 12 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
I think I see an eye! — § Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (T + U + E + C) - (Remembering 9/11) 01:50, 12 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Very near cat 3 status; it looks very impressive on satellite imagery and it appears to be rapidly-intesifying. bob rulz 02:28, 12 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
The BOILING waters at the area where this typhoon is currently located may helped the rapid intensification. --IrfanFaiz 08:01, 12 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Seems to be steady at it's current intensity. --IrfanFaiz 13:03, 12 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Yes, it seems to have just...stopped intensifying. For a while there it looked like a beautiful cat 3-equivalent typhoon (although it was never upgraded as such), but now you can barely note an eye. bob rulz 21:49, 12 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
JMA predicts slight increase in wind speed and decrease in pressure within 24h. Doubt it'll be super typhoon Shanshan though. - SpLoT 11:32, 13 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Was interesting at first, but then became boring. — § Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (T + U + E + C) - (Remembering 9/11) 03:41, 14 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC predicts strengthening to cat3 within 24h, but extratropical in a few days. Could hit Japan. - SpLoT 11:30, 14 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Shanshan's appearance on visible satellite imagery has improved dramatically today. It looks quite impressive now. --Coredesat talk! 02:01, 15 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

100 knots from NRL, looks like it is reintensifying. --IrfanFaiz 05:36, 15 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Very impressive in visual satellite pictures, may expect a Category 4 out of this. --IrfanFaiz 05:44, 15 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Category 4 indeed - 120kt/922mb on NRL. The Ryukyu Islands (Naha, Okinawa, etc.) could be in big trouble. Pobbie Rarr 17:31, 15 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
The Yaeyama Islands are in big trouble right now. The eye just passed over Iriomote. --Holderca1 19:48, 15 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
I hope it didn't do what Ioke did to Wake (roofs gone, walls gone. etc.) --IrfanFaiz 01:25, 16 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Uh oh! Shanshan seems to shed her rainbands. She also seems to be having a big, but cloud covered eye which could be mean she could be semi-annular. — § Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (T + U + E + C) - (Remembering 9/11) 02:56, 16 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
-sigh- This isn't even close to annular. Now you're just seeing things. bob rulz 03:21, 16 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
"Semi-annular" lol, you could argue that any tropical cyclone is semi-annular. Daniel Fever really is infectious (though I maintain that Gordon was NEARLY annular...). Shanshan is just a well-organised beast. Pobbie Rarr 03:29, 16 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC predicts Shanshan to start transition into extratropical in 12h (at 0900 UTC). General weakening also predicted by JMA. - SpLoT 04:30, 16 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

She is a beautiful storm in satellite images. --IrfanFaiz 05:15, 16 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
The first two casualties reported from Shanshan by landslides. See here, here and here. Injuries here. Want to consider making article? - SpLoT 09:32, 16 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Not yet; two deaths in the Western Pacific isn't notable enough. No active articles in the WPac please - we saw with Ewiniar and Ioke that it's almost impossible to maintain articles for active WPac storms well. If it does enough damage, has enough impact, to warrant an article, then yes, do it after the storm dies. – Chacor 09:39, 16 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Very true due to the conflicting sources. It's a lot easier when only one source - the NHC or CPHC usually - is involved. There are much deadlier storms from the WPac this year without articles. CrazyC83 20:29, 16 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
It should need an article since it is expected to breifly came ashore on Honshu. --IrfanFaiz 04:46, 17 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
That'll be Kyūshū, not Honshū. And maybe Chacor's right, let's wait for it to dissipate before writing an article. - SpLoT 05:23, 17 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

First 2 casualties confirmed, 5 more supposedly dead/missing after train derailment. - SpLoT 10:51, 17 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Shanshan continues to weaken, downgraded to cat1, could become STS by 171200. JTWC predicts extratropical in 24h. - SpLoT 10:53, 17 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC stops warnings. Shanshan could hit Hokkaido as TS or extratropical system. - SpLoT 07:54, 19 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

15W.NONAME

95W.INVEST

NEwly up at 21.0N 129.5E. – Chacor 09:01, 8 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Dosen't seem to impressive. Seems to be hugging China. --§ Alastor "Mad-Eye" iMoody (talk + contribs + userboxes) 19:21, 10 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
JMA has Tropical Depression forecasted by Tuesday on their weather chart. (this may change by Mon. Evening)-- グリフオーザー 08:01, 11 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Is this the same as the one here and here? - SpLoT 07:48, 12 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
JMA TD (<30 kt)

Now appearing on JMA's weather chart. It's the one SW of HK. – Chacor 09:04, 12 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC upgraded potential for tropical cyclone to fair at 0600 UTC, HKO predicts tropical storm in 2 days. Poised to hit Hainan. - SpLoT 10:01, 12 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

15W.NONAME

TD15W in a 1911Z fix from PGTW. – Chacor 19:29, 12 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Looks like it'll run out of water before it can become a tropical storm. bob rulz 06:11, 13 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
JMA forecasts it to stall and become a TS though. – Chacor 06:15, 13 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Quite close to land there. Sure it'll become TS? JTWC predicts extratropical in a few days. - SpLoT 11:34, 13 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
HKO track shows low pressure system on land. Should we move it to the other storms section? - SpLoT 14:46, 13 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JMA is official, and are still carrying the depression, and as of 12Z still expect a TS. Until the JMA drops it, then we move it. – Chacor 14:48, 13 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Yup Chacor could be right here. The JMA website proves it saying it could still be a TS unless its like another TD 13W. — § Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (T + U + E + C) - (Remembering 9/11) 03:53, 14 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Not anymore. Look at the time-stamp: 0900 UTC September 13. It hasn't been updated since, and I'd move it to other storms. – Chacor 03:54, 14 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Week 2

16W.YAGI

new invest FNMOC shows it as 95W.INVEST by mistake. invest location is 13N 155E -- グリフオーザー 05:46, 13 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It's up on the main NRL site now. --Coredesat talk! 07:03, 13 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
JMA TD (<30 kt)

It's on the JMA weather chart as a tropical depression @ 1004 hPa 11N 156E moving NW slowly. - SpLoT 14:52, 13 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The West Pacific is finally heating up again. bob rulz 21:36, 13 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
It's back to a low pressure area @ 1008 hPa as of 0600 UTC 14 September. - SpLoT 11:28, 14 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Re-classified by JMA to TD 1008 hPa @ 19N 157E moving N slowly as of 1200 UTC. - SpLoT 16:55, 16 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

FNMOC maps it at 40 knots here. - SpLoT 17:15, 16 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
16W.NONAME

NONAME now up on NRL. 24.85.160.56 23:56, 16 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

T0614 YAGI

Yagi from the JMA at 06Z. – Chacor 07:45, 17 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Storm Yagi

JTWC upgraded 16W to TS at 09Z. Forecasts point towards development of typhoon in 72h. - SpLoT 10:44, 17 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Typhoon Yagi

From both agencies. It's a bit early to be making predictions, but this one looks like it could be dangerous, probably for Japan. —Cuiviénen 03:33, 19 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

This is an impressive system, it already got a very very clear eye! --IrfanFaiz 05:55, 19 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Nice looking system. - SpLoT 07:53, 19 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Wow, it looks damn impressive now. NRL has it at 115kts. It's almost perfectly symmetrical and has a very sharp, clear eye. In fact, it reminds me a lot of Hurricane Ivan. bob rulz 02:27, 20 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Looks like the typhoon season is heating up again. Impressive system. It has a very round eye just after intensifying from a sts. --IrfanFaiz 07:48, 20 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
JTWC predicts a cat4 supertyphoon in a few days. - SpLoT 09:06, 20 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
This season is going to be full of super typhoons. The eye is getting smaller and smaller, like Wilma's. --IrfanFaiz 11:19, 20 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Super Typhoon Yagi

130 knots now from JTWC -- グリフオーザー 09:02, 21 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Another STY. --IrfanFaiz 11:13, 21 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Japan Meteorological Agency reports Yagi at 110 knots 910 Hpa. now the strongest storm this season. -- グリフオーザー 19:27, 21 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Wow, this storm looks incredible! The West Pacific always has the most interesting storms. Luckily, this one is expected to miss land. But still, cat 4 intensity expected up near Japan? That doesn't happen very often. bob rulz 04:46, 22 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Weakened back to Typhoon. Does anyone know when JTWC downgraded it (for timeline)? - SpLoT 15:19, 22 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Ok, found it. - SpLoT 15:27, 22 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Week 3

97W.INVEST

Recently appeared. Don't know where it is though...there's no imagery and no coordinates. bob rulz 22:11, 20 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Nevermind, there is some imagery. It's in the South China Sea between the Philippines and Vietnam. bob rulz 22:12, 20 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JMA statement -- LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 15N 115E ENE SLOWLY. -- グリフオーザー 22:56, 20 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Kind of an awkward place to form, but JMA lists it at 0600 UTC LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 14N 116E ALMOST STATIONARY. - SpLoT 10:01, 21 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
It is like a few hundred miles where i am right now. --IrfanFaiz 11:14, 21 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Now at 13N 115E. Still 1006 hPa. - SpLoT 15:38, 21 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC TCFA. – Chacor 06:26, 22 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

wow you're fast.. heh -- グリフオーザー 06:28, 22 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
I first got notice of the TCFA at 1:45 pm local time, but posted at 2:26 pm local time. Could be faster haha. Interesting area to watch. – Chacor 06:42, 22 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Hong Kong Observatory notes this system as a depression. JMA has it forecasted as a Tropical Depression by sometime Sunday. -- グリフオーザー 14:26, 22 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JMA TD (<30 kt)

JMA TD at 1200 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 13N 114E ALMOST STATIONARY. - SpLoT 15:21, 22 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

As VOFFA says, it's an HKO TD [1], I think it warrants a place in the article. Typhoonchaser 15:33, 22 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
It probably does. I think JTWC will pick up on it soon, hopefully they do, it'll make things easier. Until then, go ahead and add it, but I think don't use an infobox for now. – Chacor 15:39, 22 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

98W.INVEST

Up on NRL, east of Philippines. - SpLoT 15:25, 22 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

99W.INVEST

New one at 10.7N 136.5E. -- RattleMan 20:38, 22 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Strongest storm

I was wondering if the central pressure of a storm would be relevant for it to be the strongest storm of a season, since this page gives the pressure while previous seasons just give wind speed. - SpLoT 10:09, 12 September 2006 (UTC) Or should I just be bold and change it? Haha. - SpLoT 10:11, 12 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Pressure is actually the determining factor. The storm with the lowest pressure is considered the strongest in any situation. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 00:06, 13 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Previous seasons list the wind speed alone. Should we a) list both b) list pressure? - SpLoT 10:56, 13 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Question

This is something I've always wondered and I've never found a true answer for. Why did Japan stop sending recon flights into typhoons? bob rulz 21:35, 13 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

As far as I know, Japan never sent recon flights into typhoons, so they never stopped because they never started. The JTWC used to send recon flights into typhoons, but I don't know why they stopped. It wasn't like every second mission was lost or something because as far as I can tell no Hurricane Hunter flight has been lost since Swan 38. It would likely be an interesting search to find out whyt they stopped. Perhaps, and I am speculating here, the recon planes were needed more in the Atlantic. Miss Madeline | Talk to Madeline 00:04, 15 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
It might have something to do with satellite estimates. Satellite intensity estimates came around in the early 1980s, and 4 years after it began recon flights ended. Maybe they were too much money? Hurricanehink (talk) 00:07, 15 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
That's a possibility. And it's my mistake, I thought Japan was the one that sent planes in before. Regardless, my question still stands. Surely they should know that recon flights are more accurate than satellite estimates? I just don't like the feeling that typhoons from the 70s and 80s probably have more accurate intensity estimates than 90s and 00s typhoons. bob rulz 02:29, 15 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Remember that JTWC officialy forecasted the typhoon basin before JMA took overs. I think that is the cause. Or maybe JTWC moved their HQ from Guam to Pearl Harbor. --IrfanFaiz 05:39, 15 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
I don't think it is a matter of where the JTWC's HQ are. The NHC is in Miami and the hurricane hunters flew out of Keesler AFB in Biloxi, MS until Katrina and moved to Dobbins ARB in Atlanta. Are they back at Keesler now? Not sure. At any rate. They could just as easily fly recon flights out of Kadena AB. I think it probably is a funding issue. The JTWC falls under the US government and monitors mainly for US interests in the West Pacific. With just a few military bases spread here and there in the Pacific, the risk isn't worth the reward. The US has a lot more infrastructure on the US east and gulf coast then it does in all of the Pacific.--Holderca1 14:16, 15 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]
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