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{{Short description|Total amount of debt owed to lenders by a government/state}}
'''Government debt''' ("'''public debt'''", "'''national debt'''") is [[money]] owed by [[government]], at any level ([[central government]], [[federal government]], [[national government]], [[municipal government]], [[local government]], [[regional government]]).
{{public finance}}
A country's gross '''government debt''' (also called public debt, or sovereign debt<ref>[http://lexicon.ft.com/Term?term=sovereign-debt "FT Lexicon"]{{spaced ndash}} ''The [[Financial Times]]''</ref>) is the financial liabilities of the government sector.<ref name="gfsm" />{{rp|81}} Changes in government debt over time reflect primarily borrowing due to past [[government deficit]]s.<ref name="oecdd">{{ cite web | url=https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-debt.htm | last=OECD Data | website=OECD.org | title=OECD General government debt }}</ref> A deficit occurs when a government's expenditures exceed revenues.<ref name="oecdf">{{cite web | url= https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-deficit.htm | title=General government deficit | website=OECD.org | last=OECD Data }}</ref><ref name="gfsm"/>{{rp|79–82}} Government debt may be owed to domestic residents, as well as to foreign residents. If owed to foreign residents, that quantity is included in the country's [[external debt]].<ref>{{cite web | title=External Debt Statistics: Guide for Compilers and Users | pages=41–43 | url= https://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ed/ed.htm | author=International Monetary Fund}}</ref>


In 2020, the value of government debt worldwide was $87.4 US trillion, or 99% measured as a share of [[gross domestic product]] (GDP).<ref name="Gaspar">{{cite web | last1=Gaspar | first1=Vitor | last2=Medas | first2=Paulo | last3=Perrelli | first3=Roberto | title= Global Debt Reaches a Record $226 Trillion | date=15 December 2021 | url=https://blogs.imf.org/2021/12/15/global-debt-reaches-a-record-226-trillion/ | website=IMF Blog }}</ref> Government debt accounted for almost 40% of all debt (which includes corporate and household debt), the highest share since the 1960s.<ref name="Gaspar"/> The rise in government debt since 2007 is largely attributable to the global [[financial crisis of 2007–2008]], and the [[COVID-19 pandemic]].<ref name="Gaspar"/>
It's possible to consider this an indirect debt of the [[tax]] payers.


The ability of government to issue debt has been central to [[state formation]] and to [[state-building|state building]].<ref name="Eichengreen-2021" /><ref name="Stasavage-2003" /> Public debt has been linked to the rise of [[democracy]], private [[financial markets]], and modern [[economic growth]].<ref name="Eichengreen-2021" /><ref name="Stasavage-2003" />
Government debt can be divided into [[internal debt]], owed to lenders within the country, and [[external debt]], owed to foreign lenders. It consists of government [[bond]]s, [[bank]] [[loan]]s, and according to some measures, unfunded liabilities such as [[pension]] plan payments and goods and services the government has contracted for but not yet paid.


==Measuring government debt==
Another common division of government debt is by duration: Short term debt is generally considered to be five years or less, long term is more than ten years. Medium term debt falls in the middle.
[[File:Government debt gdp.jpg|thumb|Total (gross) government debt as a percent of [[GDP]] by IMF]]
Government debt is typically measured as the ''gross debt'' of the ''general government'' sector that is in the form of liabilities that are debt instruments.<ref name="gfsm" />{{rp|207}} A ''debt instrument'' is a financial claim that requires payment of interest and/or principal by the debtor to the creditor in the future. Examples include debt securities (such as [[Bond (finance)|bonds]] and bills), loans, and government employee pension obligations.<ref name="gfsm">{{cite web | last=International Monetary Fund | year=2014 | title=Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 | url=https://www.imf.org/external/Pubs/FT/GFS/Manual/2014/gfsfinal.pdf }}</ref>{{rp|207}}


International comparisons usually focus on ''general government'' debt because the level of government responsible for programs (for example, health care) differs across countries and the general government comprises central, state, provincial, regional, local governments, and social security funds.<ref name="gfsm" />{{rp|18, s2.58, s2.59}} The debt of public corporations (such as post offices that provide goods or services on a market basis) is not included in general government debt, following the [[International Monetary Fund]]'s ''Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014'' (''GFSM''), which describes recommended methodologies for compiling debt statistics to ensure international comparability.<ref name="gfsm" />{{rp|33, s2.127}}


The ''gross debt'' of the general government sector is the total liabilities that are debt instruments. An alternative debt measure is ''net debt'', which is gross debt minus financial assets in the form of debt instruments.<ref name="gfsm" />{{rp|208, s7.243}} Net debt estimates are not always available since some government assets may be difficult to value, such as loans made at concessional rates.<ref name="gfsm"/>{{rp|208–209, s7.246}}


Debt can be measured at ''market value'' or ''nominal value''. As a general rule, the ''GFSM'' says debt should be valued at ''market value'', the value at which the asset could be exchanged for cash.<ref name="gfsm"/>{{rp|55, s3.107}} However, the ''nominal value'' is useful for a debt-issuing government, as it is the amount that the debtor owes to the creditor.<ref name="gfsm"/>{{rp|191, ft28}} If market and nominal values are not available, ''face value'' (the undiscounted amount of principal to be repaid at maturity)<ref name="gfsm"/>{{rp|56}} is used.<ref name="gfsm"/>{{rp|208, s7.238}}


A country's general government [[debt-to-GDP ratio]] is an indicator of its debt burden since [[GDP]] measures the value of goods and services produced by an economy during a period (usually a year). As well, debt measured as a percentage of GDP facilitates comparisons across countries of different size. The [[OECD]] views the general government debt-to-GDP ratio as a key indicator of the sustainability of government finance.<ref name="oecdd">{{ cite web | url=https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-debt.htm | last=OECD Data | website=OECD.org | title=OECD General government debt }}</ref>


==Causes of government debt accumulation==
== Denominated in U.S. dollars ==
An important reason governments borrow is to act as an economic "shock absorber". For example, deficit financing can be used to maintain government services during a recession when tax revenues fall and expenses rise (for unemployment benefits, say).<ref name ="sndo">{{cite web | title=What governs the size of central government debt? | author=Swedish National Debt Office | url=https://www.riksgalden.se/fi/our-operations/central-government-debt/what-governs-the-size-of-central-government-debt/ }}</ref> Government debt created to cover costs from major shock events can be particularly beneficial. Such events would include a major war, like [[World War II]]; a public health emergency like the [[COVID-19 pandemic]]; or a severe economic downturn as with the [[financial crisis of 2007–2008]].<ref name="eichengreen">{{cite web | title=IMF Podcasts, Barry Eichengreen: In Defense of Public Debt | date=21 December 2021 | publisher=International Monetary Fund | url= https://www.imf.org/en/News/Podcasts/All-Podcasts/2021/12/20/Eichengreen-Wellisz-debt }}</ref> In the absence of debt financing, when revenues decline during a downturn, a government would need to raise taxes or reduce spending, which would exacerbate the negative event.
{{cleanup-verify}}
''Main article: [[U.S. public debt]]''


While government borrowing may be desirable at times, a "deficits bias" can arise when there is disagreement among groups in society over government spending.<ref name="ad">{{cite journal | last1=Alesina | first1=Alberto | last2=Drazen | first2=Allan | title=Why Are Stabilizations Delayed? | journal=The American Economic Review | volume=81 | issue=5 | date=December 1991 | publisher=American Economic Association | pages=1170–1188 }}</ref><ref name="at">{{cite journal | last1=Alesina | first1=Alberto | last2=Tabellini | first2=Guido | title=A Positive Theory of Fiscal Deficits and Government Debt | journal=Review of Economic Studies | date=1990 | volume=57 | issue=3 | pages=403–414| doi=10.2307/2298021 | jstor=2298021 }}</ref> To counter deficit bias, many countries have adopted [[balanced budget amendment|balanced budget rules]] or restrictions on government debt. Examples include the "debt anchor"<ref name="sndo"/> in Sweden; a [[Debt brake (Germany)|"debt brake" in Germany]] and [[Federal budget of Switzerland#Issues and debates|Switzerland]]; and the [[European Union]]'s [[Stability and Growth Pact]] agreement to maintain a general government gross debt of no more than 60% of GDP.<ref>{{cite web | title=Consolidated version of the Treaty on European Union – PROTOCOLS – Protocol (No 12) on the excessive deficit procedure | url=http://data.europa.eu/eli/treaty/teu_2008/pro_12/oj }}</ref><ref>{{cite web | url=https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-and-fiscal-policy-coordination/eu-economic-governance-monitoring-prevention-correction/stability-and-growth-pact/applying-rules-stability-and-growth-pact_en | title=Applying the rules of the stability and growth pact}}</ref>
''This section is largely incorrect and should not be relied upon.''


==Historic benchmarks==
Today, public debt is often denominated in [[United States dollar|U.S. dollars]]. The [[U.S. Federal Reserve]] sells its long bond, a 30-year instrument (though in recent years only a 10 year bond has been sold), directly to [[central bank]]s of other countries, who then often find it convenient to lend in U.S. dollars to others, or buy their bonds using those U.S. dollars. <!-- oh what a false impression is created! nonsense! -->
[[File:Bank of England Charter sealing 1694.jpg|thumb|left|upright=0.9|The sealing of the Bank of England Charter (1694)]]
The ability of government to issue debt has been central to [[state formation]] and to [[state-building|state building]].<ref name="Eichengreen-2021">{{Cite book|last1= Eichengreen|first1= Barry J.|url= https://books.google.com/books?id=r4JszgEACAAJ|title=In Defense of Public Debt|last2=El-Ganainy|first2= Asmaa|last3= Esteves|first3=Rui|last4=Mitchener|first4=Kris James|date=2021|publisher=Oxford University Press |isbn= 978-0-19-757792-9|language=en}}</ref><ref name="Stasavage-2003">{{Cite book|author1-link=David Stasavage|last= Stasavage|first= David |url= https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/public-debt-and-the-birth-of-the-democratic-state/9995D18B9CC015BA69C37133E44DDE23|title=Public Debt and the Birth of the Democratic State: France and Great Britain 1688–1789|date= 2003|publisher= Cambridge University Press|isbn= 978-0-521-80967-2|doi=10.1017/cbo9780511510557}}</ref> Public debt has been linked to the rise of [[democracy]], private [[financial markets]], and modern [[economic growth]].<ref name="Eichengreen-2021" /><ref name="Stasavage-2003" /> For example, in the 17th and 18th centuries England established a parliament that included creditors, as part of a larger coalition, whose authorization had to be secured for the country to borrow or raise taxes. This institution improved England's ability to borrow because lenders were more willing to hold the debt of a state with democratic institutions that would support debt repayment, versus a state where the monarch could not be compelled to repay debt.<ref name="Eichengreen-2021" /><ref name="Stasavage-2003" />


As public debt came to be recognized as a safe and liquid investment, it could be used as collateral for private loans. This created a complementarity between the development of public debt markets and private financial markets.<ref name="Eichengreen-2021"/> Government borrowing to finance public goods, such as urban infrastructure, has been associated with modern [[economic growth]].<ref name="Eichengreen-2021"/>{{rp|6}}
This [[standard of deferred payment]] effectively insulates the U.S. from the risk of a change in currency values on [[foreign exchange]] markets. Seeking similar advantages, the [[EU]] issues the [[Euro]]'s [[bond]]s and competes as what is called a [[reserve currency]] — that currency which is most acceptable to pay off public debts, taxes, or purchase what can be sold quickly.


Written records point to public borrowing as long as two thousand years ago when Greek city-states such as Syracuse borrowed from their citizens.<ref name="Eichengreen-2021">{{Cite book|last1= Eichengreen|first1= Barry J.|url= https://books.google.com/books?id=r4JszgEACAAJ|title=In Defense of Public Debt|last2=El-Ganainy|first2= Asmaa|last3= Esteves|first3=Rui|last4=Mitchener|first4=Kris James|date=2021|publisher=Oxford University Press |isbn= 978-0-19-757792-9|language=en}}</ref>{{rp|10–16}} But the founding of the [[Bank of England]] in 1694 revolutionised public finance and put an end to defaults such as the ''[[Great Stop of the Exchequer]]'' of 1672, when [[Charles II of England|Charles II]] had suspended payments on his bills. From then on, the British Government would never fail to repay its creditors.<ref>{{cite book|author=Ferguson, Niall|title=The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World|publisher=Penguin Books, London|year=2008|page=76|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=HVVPpwAACAAJ|isbn=9780718194000}}</ref> In the following centuries, other countries in Europe and later around the world adopted similar financial institutions to manage their government debt.
Countries that borrow in denominations of their own currency will gain very similar advantages, however, since purchasing power of the money repaid (as measured in U.S. dollars or Euros) may vary considerably from that which was expected at the commencement of the loan, a higher [[interest rate]] is always charged for such instruments. Some countries, like [[People's Republic of China|China]], do not allow their currency (the [[renminbi]]) to trade outside the country or on [[currency market]]s. These must always use one of the global reserve currencies.
[[File:National-Debt-Gillray.jpeg|thumb|upright=1.15|''A new way to pay the National Debt'', [[James Gillray]], 1786. [[George III of the United Kingdom|King George III]], with William Pitt handing him another moneybag.|alt=Centre: George III, drawn as a paunchy man with pockets bulging with gold coins, receives a wheel-barrow filled with the money-bags from William Pitt, whose pockets also overflow with coin. To the left, a quadriplegic veteran begs on the street. To the right, George, Prince of Wales, is depicted dressed in rags.]]
In 1815, at the end of the [[Napoleonic Wars]], British government debt reached a peak of more than 200% of GDP,<ref name="public spending">[http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/uk_national_debt_chart.html UK public spending] Retrieved September 2011</ref> nearly 887 million pounds sterling.<ref name=EB1911>{{cite EB1911 |wstitle=National Debt |volume=19 |page=269}}</ref> The debt was paid off over 90 years by running [[Government budget balance#Primary balance|primary budget surpluses]] (that is, revenues were greater than spending after payment of interest).<ref name="eichengreen">{{cite web | title=IMF Podcasts, Barry Eichengreen: In Defense of Public Debt | date=21 December 2021 | publisher=International Monetary Fund | url= https://www.imf.org/en/News/Podcasts/All-Podcasts/2021/12/20/Eichengreen-Wellisz-debt }}</ref>


In 1900, the country with the most total debt was France (£1,086,215,525), followed by Russia (£656,000,000) then the United Kingdom (£628,978,782);<ref name=EB1911/> on a per-capita basis, the highest-debt countries were New Zealand (£58 12s. per person), the Australian colonies (£52 13s.) and Portugal (£35).<ref name=EB1911/>
During the [[gold standard]] period, which began in the [[19th century]] and ended as an international system in 1933, public debt was most often repaid strictly in [[gold]] bullion.


In 2018, global government debt reached the equivalent of $66 trillion, or about 80% of global GDP,<ref>{{cite news |title=Government debt hits record $66 trillion, 80% of global GDP, Fitch says |url=https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/23/government-debt-tab-hits-66-trillion-80percent-of-global-gdp-fitch-says.html |work=CNBC |date=23 January 2019}}</ref> and by 2020, global government debt reached $87US trillion, or 99% of global GDP.<ref name="Gaspar"/> The COVID-19 pandemic caused public debt to soar in 2020, particularly in advanced economics that put in place sweeping fiscal measures.<ref name="Gaspar">{{cite web | last1=Gaspar | first1=Vitor | last2=Medas | first2=Paulo | last3=Perrelli | first3=Roberto | title= Global Debt Reaches a Record $226 Trillion | date=15 December 2021 | url=https://blogs.imf.org/2021/12/15/global-debt-reaches-a-record-226-trillion/ | website=IMF Blog }}</ref>
The [[Bank for International Settlements]] is an entity that sets rules to define what loans qualify as "risk free" or not. It is a very powerful institution, which has had a pivotal position in [[central bank]]ing since its opening in [[1947]]. It was formed by
the [[Bretton Woods system|Bretton Woods]] agreements of [[1944]], which in the context of [[World War II]], specified the U.S. dollar as the universal global reserve currency, and pegged the dollar to a fixed amount in gold. While this ability to redeem dollars in gold legally ceased in [[1970]], it was effectively a fiction for decades.


==Impacts of government debt==
== Risk ==
[[File:Usa national debt 20 April 2012.JPG|thumb|right|upright=1.35|[[National Debt Clock]] outside the [[IRS]] office in [[New York City|NYC]], April 20, 2012]]
''Main article: [[credit risk]]''
Government debt accumulation may lead to a rising interest rate,<ref name="sndo"/> which can crowd out private investment as governments compete with private firms for limited investment funds. Some evidence suggests growth rates are lower for countries with government debt greater than around 80 percent of GDP.<ref name="sndo"/><ref name="rugy">{{cite journal | title=Debt and Growth: A Decade of Studies | first1=Veronique | last1=de Rugy | first2=Jack | last2=Salmon | date=April 2020 | publisher=Mercatus Center: George Mason University | doi=10.2139/ssrn.3690510 | s2cid=233762964 | url=https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3690510}}</ref> A World Bank Group report that analyzed debt levels of 100 developed and developing countries from 1980 to 2008 found that debt-to-GDP ratios above 77% for developed countries (64% for developing countries) reduced future annual economic growth by 0.017 (0.02 for developing countries) percentage points for each percentage point of debt above the threshold.<ref name=WB_2013 >{{ Cite journal | url=https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/abs/10.1596/1813-9450-5391 | last1=Grennes | first1=Thomas | last2=Caner | first2=Mehmet | last3=Koehler-Geib | first3=Fritzi | title=Finding the Tipping Point -- when Sovereign Debt Turns Bad | series=Policy Research Working Papers | date=2013-06-22 | publisher=The World Bank | doi=10.1596/1813-9450-5391 | hdl=10986/3875 | access-date=2020-09-10 | quote=The present study addresses these questions with the help of threshold estimations based on a yearly dataset of 101 developing and developed economies spanning a time period from 1980 to 2008. The estimations establish a threshold of 77 percent public debt-to-GDP ratio. If debt is above this threshold, each additional percentage point of debt costs 0.017 percentage points of annual real growth. The effect is even more pronounced in emerging markets where the threshold is 64 percent debt-to-GDP ratio. In these countries, the loss in annual real growth with each additional percentage point in public debt amounts to 0.02 percentage points. | hdl-access=free }}</ref><ref name=WP_1 >{{ cite news | url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/09/09/mnunchins-claim-pre-covid-economy-would-pay-down-debt-over-time/ | title=Mnuchin's claim that the pre-pandemic economy 'would pay down debt over time' | last=Kessler | first=Glenn | newspaper=[[The Washington Post]] | date=2020-09-09 | access-date=2020-09-10 | quote=The debt-to-GDP ratio is considered a good guide to a country’s ability to pay off its debts. The World Bank has calculated that 77 percent public debt-to-GDP is about the highest a developed country should have before debt begins to hamper economic growth. }}</ref>


Excessive debt levels may make governments more vulnerable to a [[debt crisis]], where a country is unable to make payments on its debt, and it cannot borrow more.<ref name="sndo"/> Crises can be costly, particularly if a debt crisis is combined with a financial/banking crisis which leads to economy-wide [[deleveraging]]. As firms sell assets to pay off debt, asset prices fall which risks an even greater fall in incomes, further depressing tax revenue and requiring governments to drastically cut government services.<ref>{{cite journal | first=Adrian | last=Blundell-Wignall | title=Solving the Financial and Sovereign Debt Crisis in Europe | journal=OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends | date=2012 | volume=2011 | issue=2 | pages=201–224 | doi=10.1787/fmt-2011-5k9cswmzsdwj | url= https://www.oecd.org/finance/financial-markets/49481502.pdf }}</ref> Examples of debt crises include the [[Latin American debt crisis]] of the early 1980s, and [[Argentine debt restructuring|Argentina's debt crisis in 2001]]. To help avoid a crisis, governments may want to maintain a "fiscal breathing space". Historical experience shows that room to double the level of government debt when needed is an approximate guide.<ref name="sndo"/>
Lendings to a national government in the country's own sovereign currency are often considered "risk free" and are made at a so-called "[[risk-free interest rate]]". This is because the debt and [[interest]] can be repaid by raising taxes or raising charges or, failing that, the simple expedient of printing more money. US Treasury bonds denominated in US dollars are often considered "risk free" but this ignores the risk to foreign purchasers of currency [[exchange rate]] movements.


Government debt is built up by borrowing when expenditure exceeds revenue, so government debt generally creates an ''intergenerational transfer.'' This is because the beneficiaries of the government's expenditure on goods and services when the debt is created typically differ from the individuals responsible for repaying the debt in the future.
Lendings to a national government in a currency other than its own does not allow for the same confidence in the ability to repay but this is offset somewhat by reducing the exchange rate risk to foreign lenders.


An alternative view of government debt, sometimes called the [[Ricardian equivalence]] proposition, is that government debt has no impact on the economy if individuals are altruistic and internalize the impact of the debt on future generations.<ref>{{cite journal | first=James M. | last=Buchanan | url=https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/260436 | title=Barro on the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem | journal=Journal of Political Economy | publisher=The University of Chicago Press Journals | date=1976 | pages=337–342 | volume=84 | issue=2| doi=10.1086/260436 | s2cid=153956574 }}</ref> According to this proposition, while the quantity of government purchases affects the economy, debt financing will have the same impact as tax financing because with debt financing individuals will anticipate the future taxes needed to repay the debt, and so increase their saving and bequests by the amount of government debt. Such higher individual saving means, for example, that private consumption falls one-for-one with the rise in government debt, so the interest rate would not rise and private investment is not crowded out.
Lendings to a local or municipal government can be just as risky as a loan to a private company. Local government loans are sometimes guaranteed by the national governernment and this reduces the risk. In some jurisdictions, interest earned on local or municipal bonds is tax-exempt income, which can be an important consideration for the wealthy.


==Risk==
== Clearing and defaults ==
===Credit (Default) risk===
''Main article: [[clearing and defaults]], [[clearing (finance)]], [[default (finance)]]''
{{Main|Credit risk}}
Historically, there have been many cases where governments have defaulted on their debts, including Spain in the 16th and 17th centuries, which [[Philip II of Spain#Economy|nullified its government debt]] several times; the [[Confederate States of America]], whose debt was not repaid after the [[American Civil War]]; and revolutionary Russia after 1917, which [[Repudiation of debt at the Russian Revolution|refused to accept responsibility for]] [[Russian Empire|Imperial Russia's]] foreign debt.<ref>{{Cite encyclopedia |last=Hedlund |first=Stefan |encyclopedia=Encyclopedia of Russian History (reprinted in [[Encyclopedia.com]]) |title=Foreign Debt |url=http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G2-3404100454.html |access-date=3 March 2010 |year=2004}}</ref>


If government debt is issued in a country's own [[fiat money]], it is sometimes considered risk free because the debt and interest can be repaid by [[money creation]].<ref>{{cite book | title=The Economics of Money, Banking, and the Financial Markets |edition=7 | first=Frederic | last=Mishkin}}</ref><ref>{{cite web | last1= Tootell | first1=Geoffrey | title=The Bank of England's Monetary Policy | url= https://www.bostonfed.org/-/media/Documents/neer/neer202m.pdf | website=Federal Reserve Bank of Boston|access-date=22 March 2017 }}</ref> However, not all governments issue their own currency. Examples include sub-national governments, like municipal, provincial, and state governments; and countries in the [[eurozone]]. In the [[Greek government-debt crisis]], one proposed solution was for Greece to leave the eurozone and go back to issuing the drachma<ref>M. Nicolas J. Firzli, "Greece and the Roots the EU Debt Crisis" ''The Vienna Review'', March 2010</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8594698/EU-accused-of-head-in-sand-attitude-to-Greek-debt-crisis.html |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20220112/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8594698/EU-accused-of-head-in-sand-attitude-to-Greek-debt-crisis.html |archive-date=2022-01-12 |url-access=subscription |url-status=live |title=EU accused of 'head in sand' attitude to Greek debt crisis |publisher=Telegraph.co.uk |access-date=2012-09-11}}{{cbignore}}</ref> (although this would have addressed only future debt issuance, leaving substantial existing debt denominated in what would then be a foreign currency).<ref>[https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21639591-why-leaving-euro-would-still-be-bad-both-greece-and-currency "Why leaving the euro would still be bad for both Greece and the currency area"]{{spaced ndash}}''[[The Economist]]'', 2015-01-17</ref>
Public debt clearing standards are set by the [[Bank for International Settlements]], but defaults are governed by extremely complex laws which vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction. Globally, the [[International Monetary Fund]] has the power to intervene to prevent anticipated defaults. It has been very heavily criticized for the measures it advises nations take, which often involve cutting back essential services as part of an [[economic austerity]] regime. In [[triple bottom line]] analysis, this can be seen as degrading [[capital (economics)|capital]] on which the nation's economy ultimately depends.


Debt of a sub-national government is generally viewed as less risky for a lender if it is explicitly or implicitly guaranteed by a regional or national level of government. When New York City declined into what would have been bankrupt status [[History of New York City (1946-1977)#1970s|during the 1970s]], a [[bailout]] came from New York State and the United States national government. U.S. state and local government debt is substantial — in 2016 their debt amounted to $3 trillion, plus another $5 trillion in unfunded liabilities.<ref>{{cite news |title=Debt Myths, Debunked |url=https://www.usnews.com/opinion/economic-intelligence/articles/2016-12-01/myths-and-facts-about-the-us-federal-debt |work=U.S. News |date=December 1, 2016}}</ref>
Private debt, by contrast, has a relatively simple and far less controversial model: [[credit risk]] (or the consumer [[credit rating]]) determines [[interest rate]], more or less, and entities go [[bankruptcy|bankrupt]] if they fail to repay. Governments cannot really go bankrupt (and suddenly stop providing services to citizens), thus a far more complex way of managing defaults is required.


===Inflation risk===
Smaller jurisdictions, such as cities, are usually guaranteed by their regional or national levels of government. When [[New York City]] over the [[1960s]] declined into what would have been a bankrupt status (had it been a private entity) by the early [[1970s]], a "[[bailout]]" was required from [[New York State]] and the [[United States]]. In general such measures amount to merging the smaller entity's debt into that of the larger entity and thereby gaining it access to the lower interest rates the large one enjoys. The larger entity may then assume some agreed-upon oversight in order to prevent recurrence of the problem.
A country that issues its own currency may be at low risk of default in local currency, but if a central bank provides finance by buying government bonds (sometimes referred to as [[debt monetization]]), this can lead to price [[inflation]]. In an extreme case, in the 1920s [[Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic|Weimar Germany suffered from hyperinflation]] when the government used money creation to pay off the national debt following [[World War I]].


== Structure ==
===Exchange rate risk===
While U.S. Treasury bonds denominated in U.S. dollars may be considered risk-free to an American purchaser, a foreign investor bears the risk of a fall in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to their home currency. A government can issue debt in foreign currency to eliminate ''exchange rate risk'' for foreign lenders, but that means the borrowing government then bears the exchange rate risk. Also, by issuing debt in foreign currency, a country cannot erode the value of the debt by means of inflation.<ref>{{Cite web|last=Cox|first=Jeff|date=2019-11-25|title=Fed analysis warns of 'economic ruin' when governments print money to pay off debt|url=https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/25/fed-economists-warn-of-inflation-and-economic-ruin-if-mmt-is-adopted.html|access-date=2020-09-21|website=CNBC|language=en}}</ref> Almost 70% of all debt in a sample of developing countries from 1979 through 2006 was denominated in U.S. dollars.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/70557/1/730869520.pdf|title=Empirical Research on Sovereign Debt and Default |publisher=Federal Reserve Board of Chicago |access-date=2014-06-18}}</ref>


==Implicit and contingent liabilities==
In the dominant [[economic policy]] generally ascribed to theories of [[John Maynard Keynes]], sometimes called [[Keynesian economics]], there is tolerance for quite high levels of public debt to pay for [[public investment]] in lean times, which can be paid back with tax revenues that rise in the boom times.
Most governments have ''contingent liabilities'', which are obligations that do not arise unless a particular event occurs in the future.<ref name="gfsm">{{cite web | last=International Monetary Fund | year=2014 | title=Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 | url=https://www.imf.org/external/Pubs/FT/GFS/Manual/2014/gfsfinal.pdf }}</ref>{{rp|76}} An example of an ''explicit'' contingent liability is a public sector loan guarantee, where the government is required to make payments only if the debtor defaults.<ref name="gfsm"/>{{rp|210, s.7.252}} Examples of ''implicit'' contingent liabilities include ensuring the payment of future social security pension benefits, covering the obligations of subnational governments in the event of a default, and spending for natural disaster relief.<ref name="gfsm"/>{{rp|209–210}}


Explicit contingent liabilities and net implicit social security obligations should be included as memorandum items to a government's [[balance sheet]],<ref name="gfsm"/>{{rp|69, 76–77, 209–212}} but they are not included in government debt because they are not contractual obligations.<ref name="gfsm"/>{{rp|210, s.7.252}} Indeed, it is not uncommon for governments to change unilaterally the benefit structure of social security schemes, for example (e.g., by changing the circumstances under which the benefits become payable, or the amount of the benefit).<ref name="gfsm"/>{{rp|76, s4.49}} In the U.S. and in many countries, there is no money earmarked for future social insurance payments — the system is called a ''[[PAYGO#Social insurance|pay-as-you-go]]'' scheme. According to the 2018 annual reports from the trustees for the U.S. Social Security and Medicare trust funds, [[Medicare (United States)|Medicare]] is facing a $37 trillion unfunded liability over the next 75 years, and [[Social Security (United States)|Social Security]] is facing a $13 trillion unfunded liability over the same time frame.<ref>{{cite news |first=James C. |last=Capretta |title=The financial hole for Social Security and Medicare is even deeper than the experts say |url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-financial-hole-for-social-security-and-medicare-is-even-deeper-than-the-experts-say-2018-06-15 |work=[[MarketWatch]] |date=June 16, 2018}}</ref> Neither of these amounts are included in the U.S. gross general government debt, which in 2020 was $28 trillion.<ref name="weo">{{cite web | title=World Economic Outlook Database | url=https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2021 | author=International Monetary Fund}}</ref>
As this theory gained popularity in the [[1930s]] globally, many nations took on public debt to finance large [[infrastructural capital]] projects — such as the U.S. system of [[interstate highway]]s — or large [[hydroelectric dam]]s. It was thought that this could start a [[virtuous cycle]] and a rising [[business confidence]] since there would be more workers with money to spend. However, it was only the military spending of [[World War II]] that really ended the [[Great Depression]]. (There is however, much debate as to what exactly ended the Great Depression, in particular from [[Austrian Economics]].)


In 2010 the [[European Commission]] required EU Member Countries to publish their debt information in standardized methodology, explicitly including debts that were previously hidden in a number of ways to satisfy minimum requirements on local (national) and European ([[Stability and Growth Pact]]) level.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:145:0001:0009:en:PDF |title=Council Regulation (EC) No 479/2009 |access-date=2011-11-08}}</ref>
Nonetheless, the Keynesian scheme remained dominant, thanks in part to Keynes' own pamphlet ''[[How to Pay for the War]]'', published in his native [[United Kingdom]] in [[1940]]. Because the war was being paid for, and being won, Keynes and [[Harry D. White]], Assistant Secretary of the [[United States Department of the Treasury]], were, according to [[John Kenneth Galbraith]], the dominating influences on the [[Bretton Woods]] agreements, and set the policies for the BIS, IMF, and [[World Bank]], the so-called '''Bretton Woods Institutions''', launched in the late [[1940s]].


==See also==
These are the dominant economic entities setting policies regarding public debt. Due to their role in setting policies for [[trade dispute]]s, the [[GATT]] and [[World Trade Organization]] also have immense power to affect [[foreign exchange]] relations, as many nations are dependent on specific [[commodity markets]] for the [[balance of payments]] they require to repay debt.
'''Government finance:'''
* [[Debt crisis]]
* [[Government bond]]
* [[Municipal bond]]
* [[Government budget deficit]]
* [[Government spending]]
* [[Generational accounting]]
* [[Financial repression]]
* [[Fiscal policy]]
* [[Public finance]]
* [[Debt clock]]
* [[Sovereign default]]
* [[Sovereign credit]]
* [[Tax]]


'''Specific:'''
Understanding the structure of public debt and analyzing its [[risk]] requires one to:
* [[1980s austerity policy in Romania]]
* [[Latin American debt crisis]]
* [[European debt crisis]]
* [[National debt of the United States]]


'''General:'''
* Assess the [[expected value]] of any [[public asset]] being constructed, at least in future tax terms if not in direct revenues. A choice must be made about its status as a [[public good]] — some public "assets" end up as [[public bad]]s, such as [[nuclear power]] plants which are extremely expensive to decommission — these costs must also be worked in to asset values.
* [[Bond (finance)]]
* Determine whether any public debt is being used to finance [[consumption]], which includes all [[social assistance]] and all [[military spending]].
* [[Credit default swap]]
* Determine whether [[triple bottom line]] issues are likely to lead to failure or defaults of governments — say due to being overthrown
* [[Warrant of payment|Warrant (of Payment)]]
* Determine whether any of the debt being undertaken may be held to be [[odious debt]], which permits it to be disavowed without any affect to a country's credit status. This includes any loans to purchase "assets" such as leaders' palaces, or the people's suppression or extermination. [[International law]] does not permit people to be held responsible for such debts — as they did not benefit in any way from the spending and had no control over it.
* [[List of countries by credit rating]]
* Determine if any future [[entitlement]]s are being created by expenditures — financing a public [[swimming pool]] for instance may create some right to recreation where it did not previously exist, by precedent and expectations.
* [[List of countries by external debt]]
* [[Net international investment position#List of countries and regions by net international investment position (NIIP)|List of countries by net international investment position]]
* [[List of countries by government debt]]
* [[World debt]]


== Scale ==
==References==
{{Reflist}}


==External links==
The scale of public debt makes little sense to assess without the structural and timing considerations above. However, most analysts consider a [[U.S. budget deficit]] of over US$500 billion per year to represent a problem that must be addressed quickly.
{{Commons category|Government debt}}
{{Wikiquote}}
{{NIE Poster|Debt, Public|Government debt}}
* [http://blog-pfm.imf.org/ The IMF Public Financial Management Blog]
* [http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=GOV_DEBT OECD government debt statistics]
* [http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/gbb/index.htm Japan's Central Government Debt]
* [http://www.rgk.se/ Riksgäldskontoret – Swedish national debt office]
*[https://investisc.com/what-is-sovereign-debt/ What is Sovereign Debt]
* [http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np United States Treasury, Bureau of Public Debt – The Debt to the Penny and Who Holds It] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110418203433/http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np |date=2011-04-18 }}
* [http://bancroft.berkeley.edu/ROHO/projects/debt/index.html Slaying the Dragon of Debt, Regional Oral History Office, The Bancroft Library, University of California, Berkeley]
* [https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/theme/71 A historical collection of documents on or referring to government spending and fiscal policy], available on FRASER
* {{cite encyclopedia |last1=Eisner |first1=Robert |author-link=Robert Eisner |editor= David R. Henderson |editor-link= David R. Henderson |encyclopedia=[[Concise Encyclopedia of Economics]] |title=Federal Debt |url=http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc1/FederalDebt.html |year=1993 |edition= 1st |publisher=[[Library of Economics and Liberty]] }} {{OCLC|317650570|50016270|163149563}}
* {{cite web|title=Government's Borrowing Power|url=https://www.debatedwisdom.com/articles/governments-borrowing-power/|website=DebatedWisdom|publisher=3IVIS GmbH|access-date=29 October 2016}}


;Databases
Also, per capita measures may not be appropriate in [[developing nation]]s, which have far more people than capital, who often work for nearly nothing: one billion people live on under US$1/day, two billion more on under US$5/day. This is almost half the world's population.
<!-- * [http://eh.net/databases/uspublicdebt Public Debt Database] A complete listing of all Public Debt securities issued by the United States Treasury and its predecessors between 1775 and 1976. -->

* [http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_desc.cfm?pub_id=DBA-007&lang=en CLYPS dataset on public debt level and composition in Latin America]
[[Global debt]] is of great concern, especially as very often, [[social capital|social]] capital is depleted (say by downloads <!-- what is this "downloads" thing? --> of health or welfare services on families or friends), and [[natural capital]] is ravaged for "[[natural resources]]" to make interest payments. <!-- if this is understandable then it is hardly NPOV - milder language required -->

This has led to calls for universal [[debt forgiveness]] for poorer countries. A less extreme measure is to permit [[civil society]] groups in every nation to buy the debt in exchange for minority [[equity]] positions in community organizations. Even in [[dictatorship]]s, the combination of banks and civil society power could force [[land reform]] and require unaccountable governments out of power, since the people and banks would be aligned against the oppressive government. This does not appeal to advocates of [[socialism]], however. <!-- NPOV violation again -->

[[Creditary economics]] and [[Islamic economics]] argue that ''any'' level of debt by any party simply represents a violent and coercive relationship that must end. As the existing system of public debt finance based on [[Bretton Woods]] is critical to the [[financial architecture]], significant [[monetary reform]] would be required to realize this.

Less extreme [[accounting reform]] measures seek to make the actual structure and impact of debt far more visible. <!-- what is meant!?!?!? -->

==Problems==
Sovereign debt problems have been a major public policy issue since [[World War II]], including the treatment of debt related to that war, the developing country "debt crisis" in the 1980s, and the shocks of [[Economy of Russia#Economic Outlook (1996-present)|Russia's default]] in 1998 and [[Argentine economic crisis|Argentina's default]] in 2001. For a comprehensive discussion of the procedures that have evolved for resolving the problems of governments that have defaulted on their contractual debt obligations, see: Restructuring Sovereign Debt: the Case for Ad Hoc Machinery, by Lex Rieffel, Brookings Institution Press, 2003.

==Implicit debt==
Government "implicit" debt is the "promise" by a government of future payments from the state. Usually long term promises of social payments such as pensions and health expenditure are what is referred to by this term; not promises of other expenditure such as education or defence (which are largely paid on a "quid pro quo" basis to government employees and contractors, rather than as "social welfare", including welfare per se, to the general population).

The problem with the implicit [[government insurance]] liabilities is that it's very hard to make any accurate assumptions about it, since the scale of future payments depends on so many factors. First of all, the [[social security]] claims are not any "open" [[bond]]s or debt papers with a stated timeframe, "[[time to maturity]]", "[[nominal value]]", or "[[net present value]]". In the United States there are no money in the governments coffers for social insurance payments, or for any payments, more than what's required to run the day-to-day business. This insurance system is called [[PAYGO]] ([[pay-as-you-go]]) as opposed to [[save and invest]]. The fear is that when the "[[baby boomers]]" start to retire the working population in the United States will be a smaller percentage of the population than what it is now, for a perhaps incalculable future. Which will make the government expenditures "burden" on the country larger than the 35% of [[Gross domestic product|GDP]] that it is now. Remember that the "burden" of the government is what it spends, since it can only pay its bills through [[taxes]], [[debt]], and [[inflation]] of the currency ([[government spending]] = [[tax]] revenues + change in government debt held by public + change in [[monetary base]] held by the public). "Government social benefits" paid by the [[United States government]] during 2003 was $1.3 trillion ([http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn/nipaweb/TableView.asp?SelectedTable=84&FirstYear=2002&LastYear=2004&Freq=Qtr]).

== Investments ==
''Main article: [[government investment]]''

''This section does not obviously fit in this article. Possibly an article entitled "The decline and fall of Canadian cities" would be better suited. Additionally, this section makes dubious generalizations based on carefully selected examples; comparing the growth of Calgary or Vancouver with the decay of Pittsburgh or Detroit paints a very different picture.''

Structural considerations taken into account, it will be much easier to public investment fits into [[fiscal policy]]. <!-- The previous sentence is impossible to parse. Help! --> This in turn makes it possible to assess scale of public debt and whether it presents any problems:

An example will best illustrate how. If interest payments become a major budgetary item, as they did in [[Canada]] in the [[1980s]], a government may impose measures to [[downloading|download]] on regional or municipal levels, <!-- another sentence which is noy understandable --> again as Canada did in the [[1990s]]. This will however require cutbacks in lower level services such as road maintenance and municipal support for such services as [[welfare]], as happened in such cities as [[Toronto, Ontario]]. Since such cities continue to pay taxes, ultimately, a lower percentage goes to local, and more to regional and federal priorities. In Toronto, 93 cents of each dollar collected in taxes is spent outside that city — this in turn can lead to the social unrest and declining [[quality of life]] that will trigger an exodus of talent for the city's [[instructional capital]] and [[individual capital]] dependent industries: arts, finance, insurance, etc., and thus a decline in the tax base.

It would be impossible to assess the municipal issues without looking at regional or national concerns — for instance, whether another city in Canada could become a competing financial centre, or an arts centre, to accelerate civic decline. In ''[[The Question of Separatism: Quebec and the Struggle over Sovereignty]]'', [[1980]], [[Jane Jacobs]] noted in the wake of shifts of financial and other national institutions to Toronto that "We now have a difficulty unprecedented in Canada. We have never before had a national city which lost that position and became a regional city. We have one now. Montreal cannot sustain the economy it had in the past, nor retain its many other unusual assets, if it subsides into becoming a typical Canadian regional city. If that is all it does, it will stagnate economically, and probably culturally too."

So, while Toronto in the [[1970s]] was clearly gaining from Montreal's decline, making public investment seem like a good investment, this would have been clearly a "boom time" — while Montreal experienced a "lean time" if not a "crash". No common policy for both would have been appropriate, according to Keynes' model of investing in lean times to pay back in boom times. However, the political will to cease the investment in "winners" is not usually there.

The result, in all industrial nations in the [[1970s]] and [[1980s]], was a rapid rise in both public debt and [[interest rate]] [[inflation]]. This situation did not come under any kind of control until the [[1990s]], when [[inflation]] was conquered at great social and environmental expense — as in the example of Toronto.

In the [[United States]], the federal government already had intervened to protect cities (as in the example of New York City), guarantee their "[[muni bond]]s", and provide direct transfers of federal tax monies to municipalities. This moved billions of dollars per city to offset the tendency for governments to "download".

Accordingly, investment in American cities continued, but, [[U.S. public debt]] grew while Canada's began to shrink (as of the end of [[2003]] it was still larger per capita than the U.S. debt but falling, and the U.S. debt was widely expected to pass it and become the fifth-highest among the [[G8]] nations).

== See also ==
*[[Bond]]
*[[Global economic monoculture]]
*[[Brady Bonds]]
*[[List of government debt]]
*[[U.S. government debt]]

==External links==
===United States===
*[http://www.cbpp.org/3-22-04socsec.htm Understanding The Social Security And Medicare Projections, Revised 3/23/04]
*[http://zfacts.com/p/461.html Federal Budget] Total debt, "debt-held-by-public" and trust-fund clocks showing how they add up.
*[http://zfacts.com/p/318.html National Debt Graph] History of total debt from White House data, showing presidents.
*[http://eh.net/encyclopedia/?article=noll.publicdebt Definitions and History of U.S. Government Debt] The United States Public Debt, 1861 to 1975
===Global===
* [http://samvak.tripod.com/brief-sovereigndebt01.html Default on sovereign debt and sovereign bankruptcy]


{{Debt}}
* [http://www.ukgovernmentdebt.co.uk Details UK national debt level]


{{Derivatives market|state=collapsed}}{{Authority control}}
[[Category:Government finances]]


{{DEFAULTSORT:Government Debt}}
[[de:Staatsverschuldung]]
[[Category:Government debt| ]]
[[it:Debito pubblico]]
[[Category:Fiscal policy]]
[[pl:D&#322;ug publiczny]]
[[sv:Statsskuld]]
[[zh:国债]]
[[nl:Staatsschuld]]

Latest revision as of 22:42, 16 May 2024

A country's gross government debt (also called public debt, or sovereign debt[1]) is the financial liabilities of the government sector.[2]: 81  Changes in government debt over time reflect primarily borrowing due to past government deficits.[3] A deficit occurs when a government's expenditures exceed revenues.[4][2]: 79–82  Government debt may be owed to domestic residents, as well as to foreign residents. If owed to foreign residents, that quantity is included in the country's external debt.[5]

In 2020, the value of government debt worldwide was $87.4 US trillion, or 99% measured as a share of gross domestic product (GDP).[6] Government debt accounted for almost 40% of all debt (which includes corporate and household debt), the highest share since the 1960s.[6] The rise in government debt since 2007 is largely attributable to the global financial crisis of 2007–2008, and the COVID-19 pandemic.[6]

The ability of government to issue debt has been central to state formation and to state building.[7][8] Public debt has been linked to the rise of democracy, private financial markets, and modern economic growth.[7][8]

Measuring government debt[edit]

Total (gross) government debt as a percent of GDP by IMF

Government debt is typically measured as the gross debt of the general government sector that is in the form of liabilities that are debt instruments.[2]: 207  A debt instrument is a financial claim that requires payment of interest and/or principal by the debtor to the creditor in the future. Examples include debt securities (such as bonds and bills), loans, and government employee pension obligations.[2]: 207 

International comparisons usually focus on general government debt because the level of government responsible for programs (for example, health care) differs across countries and the general government comprises central, state, provincial, regional, local governments, and social security funds.[2]: 18, s2.58, s2.59  The debt of public corporations (such as post offices that provide goods or services on a market basis) is not included in general government debt, following the International Monetary Fund's Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM), which describes recommended methodologies for compiling debt statistics to ensure international comparability.[2]: 33, s2.127 

The gross debt of the general government sector is the total liabilities that are debt instruments. An alternative debt measure is net debt, which is gross debt minus financial assets in the form of debt instruments.[2]: 208, s7.243  Net debt estimates are not always available since some government assets may be difficult to value, such as loans made at concessional rates.[2]: 208–209, s7.246 

Debt can be measured at market value or nominal value. As a general rule, the GFSM says debt should be valued at market value, the value at which the asset could be exchanged for cash.[2]: 55, s3.107  However, the nominal value is useful for a debt-issuing government, as it is the amount that the debtor owes to the creditor.[2]: 191, ft28  If market and nominal values are not available, face value (the undiscounted amount of principal to be repaid at maturity)[2]: 56  is used.[2]: 208, s7.238 

A country's general government debt-to-GDP ratio is an indicator of its debt burden since GDP measures the value of goods and services produced by an economy during a period (usually a year). As well, debt measured as a percentage of GDP facilitates comparisons across countries of different size. The OECD views the general government debt-to-GDP ratio as a key indicator of the sustainability of government finance.[3]

Causes of government debt accumulation[edit]

An important reason governments borrow is to act as an economic "shock absorber". For example, deficit financing can be used to maintain government services during a recession when tax revenues fall and expenses rise (for unemployment benefits, say).[9] Government debt created to cover costs from major shock events can be particularly beneficial. Such events would include a major war, like World War II; a public health emergency like the COVID-19 pandemic; or a severe economic downturn as with the financial crisis of 2007–2008.[10] In the absence of debt financing, when revenues decline during a downturn, a government would need to raise taxes or reduce spending, which would exacerbate the negative event.

While government borrowing may be desirable at times, a "deficits bias" can arise when there is disagreement among groups in society over government spending.[11][12] To counter deficit bias, many countries have adopted balanced budget rules or restrictions on government debt. Examples include the "debt anchor"[9] in Sweden; a "debt brake" in Germany and Switzerland; and the European Union's Stability and Growth Pact agreement to maintain a general government gross debt of no more than 60% of GDP.[13][14]

Historic benchmarks[edit]

The sealing of the Bank of England Charter (1694)

The ability of government to issue debt has been central to state formation and to state building.[7][8] Public debt has been linked to the rise of democracy, private financial markets, and modern economic growth.[7][8] For example, in the 17th and 18th centuries England established a parliament that included creditors, as part of a larger coalition, whose authorization had to be secured for the country to borrow or raise taxes. This institution improved England's ability to borrow because lenders were more willing to hold the debt of a state with democratic institutions that would support debt repayment, versus a state where the monarch could not be compelled to repay debt.[7][8]

As public debt came to be recognized as a safe and liquid investment, it could be used as collateral for private loans. This created a complementarity between the development of public debt markets and private financial markets.[7] Government borrowing to finance public goods, such as urban infrastructure, has been associated with modern economic growth.[7]: 6 

Written records point to public borrowing as long as two thousand years ago when Greek city-states such as Syracuse borrowed from their citizens.[7]: 10–16  But the founding of the Bank of England in 1694 revolutionised public finance and put an end to defaults such as the Great Stop of the Exchequer of 1672, when Charles II had suspended payments on his bills. From then on, the British Government would never fail to repay its creditors.[15] In the following centuries, other countries in Europe and later around the world adopted similar financial institutions to manage their government debt.

Centre: George III, drawn as a paunchy man with pockets bulging with gold coins, receives a wheel-barrow filled with the money-bags from William Pitt, whose pockets also overflow with coin. To the left, a quadriplegic veteran begs on the street. To the right, George, Prince of Wales, is depicted dressed in rags.
A new way to pay the National Debt, James Gillray, 1786. King George III, with William Pitt handing him another moneybag.

In 1815, at the end of the Napoleonic Wars, British government debt reached a peak of more than 200% of GDP,[16] nearly 887 million pounds sterling.[17] The debt was paid off over 90 years by running primary budget surpluses (that is, revenues were greater than spending after payment of interest).[10]

In 1900, the country with the most total debt was France (£1,086,215,525), followed by Russia (£656,000,000) then the United Kingdom (£628,978,782);[17] on a per-capita basis, the highest-debt countries were New Zealand (£58 12s. per person), the Australian colonies (£52 13s.) and Portugal (£35).[17]

In 2018, global government debt reached the equivalent of $66 trillion, or about 80% of global GDP,[18] and by 2020, global government debt reached $87US trillion, or 99% of global GDP.[6] The COVID-19 pandemic caused public debt to soar in 2020, particularly in advanced economics that put in place sweeping fiscal measures.[6]

Impacts of government debt[edit]

National Debt Clock outside the IRS office in NYC, April 20, 2012

Government debt accumulation may lead to a rising interest rate,[9] which can crowd out private investment as governments compete with private firms for limited investment funds. Some evidence suggests growth rates are lower for countries with government debt greater than around 80 percent of GDP.[9][19] A World Bank Group report that analyzed debt levels of 100 developed and developing countries from 1980 to 2008 found that debt-to-GDP ratios above 77% for developed countries (64% for developing countries) reduced future annual economic growth by 0.017 (0.02 for developing countries) percentage points for each percentage point of debt above the threshold.[20][21]

Excessive debt levels may make governments more vulnerable to a debt crisis, where a country is unable to make payments on its debt, and it cannot borrow more.[9] Crises can be costly, particularly if a debt crisis is combined with a financial/banking crisis which leads to economy-wide deleveraging. As firms sell assets to pay off debt, asset prices fall which risks an even greater fall in incomes, further depressing tax revenue and requiring governments to drastically cut government services.[22] Examples of debt crises include the Latin American debt crisis of the early 1980s, and Argentina's debt crisis in 2001. To help avoid a crisis, governments may want to maintain a "fiscal breathing space". Historical experience shows that room to double the level of government debt when needed is an approximate guide.[9]

Government debt is built up by borrowing when expenditure exceeds revenue, so government debt generally creates an intergenerational transfer. This is because the beneficiaries of the government's expenditure on goods and services when the debt is created typically differ from the individuals responsible for repaying the debt in the future.

An alternative view of government debt, sometimes called the Ricardian equivalence proposition, is that government debt has no impact on the economy if individuals are altruistic and internalize the impact of the debt on future generations.[23] According to this proposition, while the quantity of government purchases affects the economy, debt financing will have the same impact as tax financing because with debt financing individuals will anticipate the future taxes needed to repay the debt, and so increase their saving and bequests by the amount of government debt. Such higher individual saving means, for example, that private consumption falls one-for-one with the rise in government debt, so the interest rate would not rise and private investment is not crowded out.

Risk[edit]

Credit (Default) risk[edit]

Historically, there have been many cases where governments have defaulted on their debts, including Spain in the 16th and 17th centuries, which nullified its government debt several times; the Confederate States of America, whose debt was not repaid after the American Civil War; and revolutionary Russia after 1917, which refused to accept responsibility for Imperial Russia's foreign debt.[24]

If government debt is issued in a country's own fiat money, it is sometimes considered risk free because the debt and interest can be repaid by money creation.[25][26] However, not all governments issue their own currency. Examples include sub-national governments, like municipal, provincial, and state governments; and countries in the eurozone. In the Greek government-debt crisis, one proposed solution was for Greece to leave the eurozone and go back to issuing the drachma[27][28] (although this would have addressed only future debt issuance, leaving substantial existing debt denominated in what would then be a foreign currency).[29]

Debt of a sub-national government is generally viewed as less risky for a lender if it is explicitly or implicitly guaranteed by a regional or national level of government. When New York City declined into what would have been bankrupt status during the 1970s, a bailout came from New York State and the United States national government. U.S. state and local government debt is substantial — in 2016 their debt amounted to $3 trillion, plus another $5 trillion in unfunded liabilities.[30]

Inflation risk[edit]

A country that issues its own currency may be at low risk of default in local currency, but if a central bank provides finance by buying government bonds (sometimes referred to as debt monetization), this can lead to price inflation. In an extreme case, in the 1920s Weimar Germany suffered from hyperinflation when the government used money creation to pay off the national debt following World War I.

Exchange rate risk[edit]

While U.S. Treasury bonds denominated in U.S. dollars may be considered risk-free to an American purchaser, a foreign investor bears the risk of a fall in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to their home currency. A government can issue debt in foreign currency to eliminate exchange rate risk for foreign lenders, but that means the borrowing government then bears the exchange rate risk. Also, by issuing debt in foreign currency, a country cannot erode the value of the debt by means of inflation.[31] Almost 70% of all debt in a sample of developing countries from 1979 through 2006 was denominated in U.S. dollars.[32]

Implicit and contingent liabilities[edit]

Most governments have contingent liabilities, which are obligations that do not arise unless a particular event occurs in the future.[2]: 76  An example of an explicit contingent liability is a public sector loan guarantee, where the government is required to make payments only if the debtor defaults.[2]: 210, s.7.252  Examples of implicit contingent liabilities include ensuring the payment of future social security pension benefits, covering the obligations of subnational governments in the event of a default, and spending for natural disaster relief.[2]: 209–210 

Explicit contingent liabilities and net implicit social security obligations should be included as memorandum items to a government's balance sheet,[2]: 69, 76–77, 209–212  but they are not included in government debt because they are not contractual obligations.[2]: 210, s.7.252  Indeed, it is not uncommon for governments to change unilaterally the benefit structure of social security schemes, for example (e.g., by changing the circumstances under which the benefits become payable, or the amount of the benefit).[2]: 76, s4.49  In the U.S. and in many countries, there is no money earmarked for future social insurance payments — the system is called a pay-as-you-go scheme. According to the 2018 annual reports from the trustees for the U.S. Social Security and Medicare trust funds, Medicare is facing a $37 trillion unfunded liability over the next 75 years, and Social Security is facing a $13 trillion unfunded liability over the same time frame.[33] Neither of these amounts are included in the U.S. gross general government debt, which in 2020 was $28 trillion.[34]

In 2010 the European Commission required EU Member Countries to publish their debt information in standardized methodology, explicitly including debts that were previously hidden in a number of ways to satisfy minimum requirements on local (national) and European (Stability and Growth Pact) level.[35]

See also[edit]

Government finance:

Specific:

General:

References[edit]

  1. ^ "FT Lexicon" – The Financial Times
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r International Monetary Fund (2014). "Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014" (PDF).
  3. ^ a b OECD Data. "OECD General government debt". OECD.org.
  4. ^ OECD Data. "General government deficit". OECD.org.
  5. ^ International Monetary Fund. "External Debt Statistics: Guide for Compilers and Users". pp. 41–43.
  6. ^ a b c d e Gaspar, Vitor; Medas, Paulo; Perrelli, Roberto (15 December 2021). "Global Debt Reaches a Record $226 Trillion". IMF Blog.
  7. ^ a b c d e f g h Eichengreen, Barry J.; El-Ganainy, Asmaa; Esteves, Rui; Mitchener, Kris James (2021). In Defense of Public Debt. Oxford University Press. ISBN 978-0-19-757792-9.
  8. ^ a b c d e Stasavage, David (2003). Public Debt and the Birth of the Democratic State: France and Great Britain 1688–1789. Cambridge University Press. doi:10.1017/cbo9780511510557. ISBN 978-0-521-80967-2.
  9. ^ a b c d e f Swedish National Debt Office. "What governs the size of central government debt?".
  10. ^ a b "IMF Podcasts, Barry Eichengreen: In Defense of Public Debt". International Monetary Fund. 21 December 2021.
  11. ^ Alesina, Alberto; Drazen, Allan (December 1991). "Why Are Stabilizations Delayed?". The American Economic Review. 81 (5). American Economic Association: 1170–1188.
  12. ^ Alesina, Alberto; Tabellini, Guido (1990). "A Positive Theory of Fiscal Deficits and Government Debt". Review of Economic Studies. 57 (3): 403–414. doi:10.2307/2298021. JSTOR 2298021.
  13. ^ "Consolidated version of the Treaty on European Union – PROTOCOLS – Protocol (No 12) on the excessive deficit procedure".
  14. ^ "Applying the rules of the stability and growth pact".
  15. ^ Ferguson, Niall (2008). The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World. Penguin Books, London. p. 76. ISBN 9780718194000.
  16. ^ UK public spending Retrieved September 2011
  17. ^ a b c Chisholm, Hugh, ed. (1911). "National Debt" . Encyclopædia Britannica. Vol. 19 (11th ed.). Cambridge University Press. p. 269.
  18. ^ "Government debt hits record $66 trillion, 80% of global GDP, Fitch says". CNBC. 23 January 2019.
  19. ^ de Rugy, Veronique; Salmon, Jack (April 2020). "Debt and Growth: A Decade of Studies". Mercatus Center: George Mason University. doi:10.2139/ssrn.3690510. S2CID 233762964. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  20. ^ Grennes, Thomas; Caner, Mehmet; Koehler-Geib, Fritzi (2013-06-22). "Finding the Tipping Point -- when Sovereign Debt Turns Bad". Policy Research Working Papers. The World Bank. doi:10.1596/1813-9450-5391. hdl:10986/3875. Retrieved 2020-09-10. The present study addresses these questions with the help of threshold estimations based on a yearly dataset of 101 developing and developed economies spanning a time period from 1980 to 2008. The estimations establish a threshold of 77 percent public debt-to-GDP ratio. If debt is above this threshold, each additional percentage point of debt costs 0.017 percentage points of annual real growth. The effect is even more pronounced in emerging markets where the threshold is 64 percent debt-to-GDP ratio. In these countries, the loss in annual real growth with each additional percentage point in public debt amounts to 0.02 percentage points. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  21. ^ Kessler, Glenn (2020-09-09). "Mnuchin's claim that the pre-pandemic economy 'would pay down debt over time'". The Washington Post. Retrieved 2020-09-10. The debt-to-GDP ratio is considered a good guide to a country's ability to pay off its debts. The World Bank has calculated that 77 percent public debt-to-GDP is about the highest a developed country should have before debt begins to hamper economic growth.
  22. ^ Blundell-Wignall, Adrian (2012). "Solving the Financial and Sovereign Debt Crisis in Europe" (PDF). OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends. 2011 (2): 201–224. doi:10.1787/fmt-2011-5k9cswmzsdwj.
  23. ^ Buchanan, James M. (1976). "Barro on the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem". Journal of Political Economy. 84 (2). The University of Chicago Press Journals: 337–342. doi:10.1086/260436. S2CID 153956574.
  24. ^ Hedlund, Stefan (2004). "Foreign Debt". Encyclopedia of Russian History (reprinted in Encyclopedia.com). Retrieved 3 March 2010.
  25. ^ Mishkin, Frederic. The Economics of Money, Banking, and the Financial Markets (7 ed.).
  26. ^ Tootell, Geoffrey. "The Bank of England's Monetary Policy" (PDF). Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Retrieved 22 March 2017.
  27. ^ M. Nicolas J. Firzli, "Greece and the Roots the EU Debt Crisis" The Vienna Review, March 2010
  28. ^ "EU accused of 'head in sand' attitude to Greek debt crisis". Telegraph.co.uk. Archived from the original on 2022-01-12. Retrieved 2012-09-11.
  29. ^ "Why leaving the euro would still be bad for both Greece and the currency area" – The Economist, 2015-01-17
  30. ^ "Debt Myths, Debunked". U.S. News. December 1, 2016.
  31. ^ Cox, Jeff (2019-11-25). "Fed analysis warns of 'economic ruin' when governments print money to pay off debt". CNBC. Retrieved 2020-09-21.
  32. ^ "Empirical Research on Sovereign Debt and Default" (PDF). Federal Reserve Board of Chicago. Retrieved 2014-06-18.
  33. ^ Capretta, James C. (June 16, 2018). "The financial hole for Social Security and Medicare is even deeper than the experts say". MarketWatch.
  34. ^ International Monetary Fund. "World Economic Outlook Database".
  35. ^ "Council Regulation (EC) No 479/2009". Retrieved 2011-11-08.

External links[edit]

Databases