Mapping research

from Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The science of probabilistic event allocation , short allocation research (also attribution research ) includes within climate science the assessment of the contribution of man-made climate change to extreme weather events . You can u. a. provide scientific evidence for the contribution of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect to changing the risk of extreme weather events. For a specific extreme weather event, the allocation research thus enables the determination of the extent to which this event is of “natural origin” or, with a certain probability, that man-made climate change is responsible for it.

history

Allocation research is still a very young discipline. Within the last decade, the assignment of extreme weather and climate events has developed from a theoretical possibility to an independent sub-area of climate science that regularly and using a number of approaches provides scientific evidence for the role of anthropogenic climate change in individual extreme weather events. The climate researcher Friederike Otto made a leading contribution to the development of the discipline .

Methods

Different approaches and thus different forms of the question of assignment lead to very different assessments of the role of man-made climate change. Understanding the change in the overall risk of extreme events in an overheating world requires both a thermodynamic perspective and an understanding of changes in atmospheric circulation .

Future research

While there is no “right” or “wrong” approach, the scientific community is currently discussing the appropriate methods to meet the diverse needs of those who are eligible and the barriers of science. Overcoming these barriers with the help of more thorough model assessment and meaningful error corrections, as well as overcoming the meteorological hazards and mapping the full effects of extreme weather conditions are the main challenges for upcoming research in the coming years.

credentials

  1. ^ Attribution / attribution research. German Weather Service, accessed on October 1, 2019 .
  2. ↑ Otto, FE, Boyd, E., Jones, RG, Cornforth, RJ, James, R., Parker, HR, & Allen, MR (2015). Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: a preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications. Climatic Change, 132 (4), 531-543. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1432-0
  3. ^ Otto, FE, Massey, N., van Oldenborgh, GJ, Jones, RG, & Allen, MR (2012). Reconciling two approaches to the attribution of the 2010 Russian heat wave. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (4). https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050422
  4. ↑ a b c Otto, FE (2017). Attribution of weather and climate events. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 42, 627-646. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-102016-060847
  5. ↑ Christopher Schrader : Doping for extreme weather . In: RiffReporter , October 15, 2019. Retrieved October 16, 2019.
  6. ↑ The German researcher Friederike Otto wants to solve one of the greatest climate puzzles . In: Tagesspiegel , April 17, 2019. Retrieved October 16, 2019.
  7. ↑ Otto, FE, van Oldenborgh, GJ, Eden, J., Stott, PA, Karoly, DJ, & Allen, MR (2016). The attribution question. Nature Climate Change, 6 (9), 813. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3089