British Doctors Study

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The British Doctors Study (German: "British doctors study") is the name of a prospective epidemiological study , which ran from 1951 to 2001 and for 1956 has already delivered convincing statistical evidence that tobacco smoking , the lung cancer increases -Risk.

The study was initially led by famous epidemiologists and statisticians Richard Doll and Austin Bradford Hill . Richard Peto joined in 1971 .

context

Although there was already a suspicion that smoking and various illnesses were linked, the evidence for such a link was extremely sketchy. In fact, smoking has long been touted as "healthy" and there has been no convincing explanation why lung cancer rates have skyrocketed.

Incidentally, the study was the first statistically verified medical examination that withstood statistical criteria. Before that there were only the studies initiated by Ronald Aylmer Fisher in agriculture.

The study

In October 1951, the scientists sent a questionnaire to all registered male doctors in Great Britain about their smoking habits and health. Two thirds, namely 34,439, answered the request. Apart from these doctors, no other population groups were examined.

The study participants were then classified on the basis of various criteria - such as the decade of birth, the cause-specific cause of death, health well-being and smoking habits. New questionnaires were sent out to study participants in 1957, 1966, 1971, 1978, 1991 and 2001.

Statistical analysis

The response from completed questionnaires was quite high, which allowed for adequate statistical analysis. As early as the 1950s, it was possible to prove that both lung cancer and coronary thrombosis (the term for myocardial infarction at the time ) occur significantly more frequently in smokers than in non-smokers.

More information was given in subsequent reports, published every ten years. In summary, the long-term study found that:

  • smoking reduces the average lifespan by up to ten years
  • 50 percent of all smokers die from a smoking-related illness, although the earlier time of death depends on the extent of smoking
  • who up to the age of
    • Smokes for 30 years, doesn't die sooner
    • Smokes 40 years, dies on average one year earlier
    • Smokes 50 years, lives an average of 4 years less
    • 60 years of smoking, 7 years of life loses.
    • 70 years of smoking, losing 10 years of life.

literature

  • R Doll, AB Hill: The mortality of doctors in relation to their smoking habits. In: BMJ , 228, 1954, pp. 1451-1455, PMID 13160495 .
  • R Doll, AB Hill: Lung cancer and other causes of death in relation to smoking. A second report on the mortality of British doctors. In: BMJ , 233, 1956, pp. 1071-1076, PMID 13364389 .
  • R Doll, AB Hill: Mortality in Relation to Smoking: Ten Years' Observations of British Doctors. In: BMJ , 5395, 1964, pp. 1399-1410, PMID 14135164 .
  • R Doll, R Peto, J Boreham, I. Sutherland: Mortality in relation to smoking: 50 years' observation on male British doctors. In: BMJ , 328, 2004, pp. 1519-1533, PMID 15213107 .

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ a b c d Doll R, Peto R, Boreham J, Sutherland I: Mortality in relation to smoking: 50 years' observation on male British doctors . In: BMJ . 328, No. 7455, 2004, p. 1519. doi : 10.1136 / bmj.38142.554479.AE . PMID 15213107 . PMC 437139 (free full text).