Birth rate at the lowest level

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The birth rate at the lowest level (Engl. Lowest-low fertility ) is a term from demographics and describes the condition in which the average number of births is an area less than 1.3 children per woman. This lowest level birth rate is a relatively new phenomenon and emerged in southern Europe and the former communist states of eastern Europe in the early 1990s. It has also been observable in the rich states of East Asia since the 2000s. Typical examples are Poland, Taiwan, South Korea and Bosnia-Herzegovina. The southern European countries currently all have fertility rates of over 1.3 again.

Effects

Fertility rate in 2009. All states colored dark blue have fertility rates below 1.3. The Macau Special Administrative Region even has one child per woman.

In the long term, birth rates of less than 1.3 children per woman are causing a particularly sharp population decline. If one assumes that the generation length lasts about 30 years, the population without immigration would shrink by more than 1.5% every year. This means that the population of the affected area halves in less than 45 years without immigration.

The People's Republic of China followed a one-child policy from 1980 to 2015 , with few exceptions being permitted. As a result, the birth rate fell to 1.4 children per woman. Both the introduction of this state regulation and its abolition led to some problems. Which birth rate is necessary for a stable population depends on various factors such as the fertility rate and general life expectancy and is controversial among scientists. It is generally accepted that a stable population requires a birth rate of 2.1 children per woman.

Individual evidence

  1. Hans-Peter Köhler u. a .: The Emergence of Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s . In: Population and Development Review, Vol. 28 (2002), pp. 641-680. ( pdf ( memento of January 24, 2011 in the Internet Archive ))
  2. Two-child policy encounters resistance - among the firstborn , BEIJING RUNDSCHAU from January 29, 2016
  3. Family policy: China ends one-child policy. Zeit Online , October 29, 2015, accessed September 6, 2016 .