Counterfactual stability

Counterfactual stability is a term in sociological systems theory that was introduced by Luhmann into the system-theoretical concept of normative expectations.

The term describes that a society as a social system selects experiences from the environment of the system so limited that it can completely immunize itself against some experiences . It then does not develop a new (alternative) expectation (“does not learn”) - even if the old expectation is repeatedly disappointed. Certain expectations are therefore contra factum ( Latin , "against the fact") consistently stable.

Expectations that are counterfactually stable form only a very small part of all expectations. As a rule, an expectation is not counterfactually stable, but is changed when it is disappointed ( social change ).

Examples

In our society there is a must expectation that people should not commit murders. The fact that this expectation remains in principle, even though murders and thus disappointments of expectations occur constantly, is called the counterfactual stability of this expectation.

However, disappointment with expectations does not necessarily have to be negative.

literature

• Niklas Luhmann: The law of society . Frankfurt am Main 1993. ISBN 3518287834