Trajectory (social sciences)
A trajectory is a social, historical, economic, ecological or technological development process that is made possible or predetermined by certain framework conditions, but is partially open to the future in the sense of a funnel formation - i. H. a gradually or suddenly opening space of options - is. The course can be predicted quite accurately in the short term; In the longer term, the forecast reliability is considerably reduced . The framework conditions that enable or determine the course can be more or less “hard” (e.g. lack of raw materials) or “soft” (e.g. in the form of technical paradigms and engineering models).
One speaks of trajectories both in the case of continuous, incremental social evolution processes (e.g. in growth curves ) and in the case of discontinuous transitions from one social condition or paradigm to another (e.g. from societies of hunters and gatherers to arable farming or nomadic shepherd societies or from rapid economic growth to zero growth), which however follows from the sum of the incremental changes. The term transition is also used for such discontinuous processes .
In biology and ecology, tractors denote certain paths in the development of species and forms of adaptation based on a certain starting point and in dealing with the selection pressure of their environment. From a system-theoretical perspective, trajectories are forms of “dynamic stability” that Francisco Varela considers to be a characteristic of autopoietic systems (self-organizing systems). They are characterized by their organizational closure and the preservation of the coherence of the most important system variables - also in contact with other systems and disruptive environmental influences. This definition can also apply to other than biological trajectories.
Special forms
The results of the development of a trajectory can be autocatalytic , i.e. H. have a reinforcing and accelerating effect on further development. The technologies used in coal mining and transport in the early 19th century, such as pumps, steam engines, and steel production for tracks and wagons, had a reinforcing effect on overall industrial development and, in turn, continued to increase the consumption of fossil energies.
Of path dependency are is when the future development options evolutionary processes by their previous results (eg due to high investments in certain forms of energy production.) Restricted or given; this means that the funnel of future development possibilities is narrowing or that certain developments become irreversible.
Trajectories of technology development
Trajectories in technology development are often interpreted in the sense of Darwin's theory as a sequence of an initially enlarged variation on the basis of a paradigm and a subsequent selection of suitable solutions, which leads to development discontinuities and discontinuities or new paradigms. The technological frontier is the highest level of technology that was built on a trajectory.
Trajectories in career counseling
As trajectories also be career paths such. B. denotes the academic tenure track , which is opened by certain "enabling contexts" and followed with a relatively high probability.
Trajectories in attitude research
Even gradual changes in individual settings, e.g. B. in the course of socialization processes are occasionally assigned the term trajectory.
Individual evidence
- ↑ b2science.org about trajectories of the biosphere ( Memento from September 17, 2014 in the Internet Archive )
- ^ FJ Varela: Autonomy and Autopoiesis , in: G. Roth, H. Schwegler (eds.): Self-organizing Systems , Frankfurt 1981, pp. 14-23; here: p. 19.
- ^ Joel Mokyr (ed.): The Economics of the Industrial Revolution , Totowa, NJ: Rowman & Allanheld 1985, ISBN 9780865981546 .
- ^ RR Nelson, SG Winter: An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change . Cambridge MA: Belknap Press 1982; see also Rainer Walz: Comments on the Co-evolution paper , online: ISI Fraunhofer Institute ( Memento from March 4, 2016 in the Internet Archive ) (PDF)
- ↑ Research team trajectories in the academic field
- ↑ Dieter Urban: Longitudinal analyzes with latent growth curve models in political socialization research. Series of publications by the Institute for Social Sciences at the University of Stuttgart 2002, online: [1] (PDF)