Turin scale

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The Turin scale is a method of unequivocally and consistently communicating both the effects of the energy released in the event of an impact and the probability of the impact for identified risky approaches to near-Earth asteroids and comets . For this purpose, these two variables are used for a classification and explanatory texts are assigned to the (eleven) classes.

Classification for the Turin scale, "Mt" means megatons of TNT

In class 0 the risk is negligible because the earth will most likely be missed or the object is too small for damage to be expected in the event of an impact. Class 1 combines areas of high energy with very low probability with areas of very low energy with higher probability, whereby the risk of the corresponding combination is always very small. Newly discovered objects are assigned to this class more often, but are usually soon revised to 0 based on further observations. The latter also applies to the increased risk band divided into classes 2 to 4. A previously unheard of high risk exists in classes 5 to 7. Classes 8 to 10 are intended for safe events with increasing energy.

In contrast to the similar Palermo scale , the point in time of the possible impact is not included in the classification, but must be reported separately. In the texts for grades 3 to 6, reference is made explicitly to the remaining time. The Turin scale does not apply to events that are more than 100 years in the future.

The Turin scale was established by Richard P. Binzel ( MIT ) and presented at a UN conference in 1995 as the Near-Earth Object Hazard Index . A revised version was presented in June 1999 at the international conference (International Monitoring Programs for Asteroid and Comet Threat - IMPACT) on near-earth objects in Turin . The conference participants accepted the revised version. The name adopted Torino Scale represents the spirit of international cooperation this conference on efforts to research and understanding of the risks posed by near-Earth objects (Engl. Near-Earth object , NEO). As a consequence of the press coverage of the false alarm 2003 QQ 47 , the Turin scale was formulated more cautiously in 2005. In particular, a distinction was made between required public attention or only from astronomers, and the likely downgrading based on further observations was mentioned.

No danger
(white area) 		0 The collision probability is effectively zero or the object is so small that damage is not to be expected.
Ordinary
(green area) 		1 A routine new discovery that is predicted to fly by that does not pose an unusual threat. The current calculations show that a collision is extremely unlikely. Further observations will most likely result in a downgrade to Class 0.
Attention from astronomers required
(yellow area) 		2 A rediscovery of an object - routine with extended search programs - with a somewhat narrower, but not unusual, flyby of the earth. While the astronomers' attention is required, there is no need for public attention or even concern as an actual collision is very unlikely. Further observations will most likely result in a downgrade to Class 0.
3 A closer approximation that requires astronomers' attention. Current calculations show a probability of more than one percent for a collision that would cause local damage. Further observations will very likely lead to a downgrade to Class 0. If the encounter is less than a decade away, it deserves public and official attention.
4th A closer approximation that requires astronomers' attention. Current calculations show a probability of over one percent for a collision that would cause regional destruction. Further observations will very likely lead to a downgrade to Class 0. If the encounter is less than a decade away, it deserves public and official attention.
Threatening
(orange area) 		5 A closer approximation that poses a grave but still uncertain threat to regional devastation. Astronomers urgently need to determine whether or not the collision will occur. If the encounter is less than a decade away, government contingency planning may be required.
6th A close encounter with a large object that poses a grave but still uncertain threat to global devastation. Astronomers urgently need to determine whether or not the collision will occur. If the encounter is less than three decades away, government contingency planning may be required.
7th A very close encounter with a large object that poses a threat unprecedented in this century. It is uncertain to enter, but the devastation would be global. International contingency planning is necessary, especially in order to quickly and conclusively determine whether a collision will occur.
Safe collisions
(red area) 		8th A collision that occurs safely and causes local destruction if it hits on land; a tsunami if it hits the coast. Such events occur on average every 50 to 1000 years.
9 A collision that occurs safely and which, if hit on land, can cause unprecedented destruction in the region; if hit in the ocean, it can cause a major tsunami. Such events occur on average every 10,000 to 100,000 years.
10 A surefire collision that can cause a global climate catastrophe and threaten civilization as we know it, regardless of whether land or ocean is hit. Such events happen less often than every 100,000 years on average.

The highest classification so far with class 4 was in December 2004 for the close flyby of asteroid Apophis in the year 2029. Shortly afterwards, the value dropped to 0, as the text for class 4 had predicted. For later encounters with this object, level 1 was still valid until 2007.

literature

  • Richard P. Binzel: The Torino Impact Hazard Scale . In: Planet. Space Sci. , 48, 2000, pp. 297-303, doi: 10.1016 / S0032-0633 (00) 00006-4 .
  • David Morrison et al .: Impacts and the Public: Communicating the Nature of the Impact Hazard . In: Michael JS Belton et al. (Ed.): Mitigation of Hazardous Comets and Asteroids . Cambridge University Press, 2004, ISBN 0-521-82764-7 , p. 353, limited preview in Google Book Search.

Web links

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ Torino Meeting on NEO Hazard Monitoring, June 1-4, 1999. Archived from the original on August 12, 2009 ; Retrieved July 16, 2011 .