Oil constant

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As constancy of the reach and somewhat ironically petroleum constant or oil constant finding is referred to, is that the static lifetime of oil in recent decades has hardly changed.

Constancy of range

In 2005 48.8  PWh of oil were used. The secured reserves are 1758 PWh. This results in a static range of 36 years. In 1919 the static range was still 9 years in the USA and in 1948 globally 20 years, which then increased to values ​​around 35 years and has remained largely constant since then. In 1975 the value was 35 years and in 2003 it was 40 years.

The constancy of the range, which is often cited in industry, is primarily the result of better exploitation of known oil fields or unconventional deposits (such as tar sands and offshore deposits ), as well as other hard-to-develop deposits in the deep sea or arctic regions. The range extension is mainly caused by known occurrences that are exploited with better or more expensive methods.

Expansion of reserves and consumption

According to Abdallah Jumʿa , CEO of Aramco , the world will not have to worry about oil depletion anytime soon. In 2008 he assumed that less than ten percent of the existing liquid oil reserves had already been extracted.

Critics such as Matthew Simmons or Colin J. Campbell regard this as a problematic overestimation of the oil reserves in the Middle East and fear an imminent expansion of global demand, which could soon reduce the static range drastically. Campbell has regularly and incorrectly predicted this scenario, known as the global oil production peak, since the 1980s. In 2012, the global production of all types of oil reached a peak of 81 million barrels per day .

The development of new oil reserves is based, on the one hand, on technological progress in prospecting , on deep-sea drilling techniques, and on making the oil fields in the regions nearer to the polar accessible with their transport problems. Due to the strong demand, unconventional oil reserves (such as oil sands , oil shale ) are increasingly being tapped and included in the strategic range. The latest technologies also include fracking of inferior or already exploited deposits. Energy sources such as methane hydrate are still being researched.

The scenario that actually came about after the oil crises of the 1970s and the beginning of the 21st century, with a downright collapse in oil prices after individual peaks, had not been accurately forecast by either Campbell or Meadows. According to Leonardo Maugeri, the age of oil and fossil raw materials is far from over, and a large part of fossil raw materials has not yet been developed.

See also

Individual evidence

  1. Samuel Schubert, Peter Slominski UTB, 2010: The energy policy of the EU Johannes Pollak, - 235 pages, p. 20
  2. Arndt Reuning , series: The last days of the dinosaurs? Power plant technology on the test bench, part 2: Energy from crude oil and natural gas , Deutschlandfunk - Wissenschaft im Brennpunkt from July 23, 2006
  3. Wolfgang W. Merkel, Die WELT December 3, 2005: Energy from the depth , accessed May 23, 2012
  4. Leonardo Maugeri, Science, May 21, 2004: Oil: False Alarm - Why the age of oil is far from over , (PDF file; 292 kB)
  5. a b Oil: The Next Revolution THE UNPRECEDENTED UPSURGE OF OIL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE WORLD (PDF; 1.5 MB) Leonardo Maugeri The Geopolitics of Energy Project
  6. Peter Glover, Energy Tribune, January 17, 2008: Aramco Chief Debunks Peak Oil , accessed May 23, 2012
  7. IEA Oil Market Report, May 11, 2012: Highlights of the latest OMR
  8. Finite Oil Reserves: Apocalypse Sometime Spiegel June 11, 2012 Alexander Jung
  9. Leonardo Maugeri, Science, May 21, 2004: Oil: False Alarm - Why the age of oil is far from over , (PDF file; 292 kB)
  10. Ulf von Rauchhaupt: Sun fire on the ground . In: Die Zeit , 1999, accessed May 23, 2012.