Colin J. Campbell

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Colin J. Campbell in Berlin, May 2009

Colin John Campbell (* 1931 in Berlin ) is an English geologist . He is the founder of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas ( ASPO ), an international network of scientists and geologists. In 2004 he made a proposal known as the Rimini Protocol , with the help of which the oil price should be kept low and the negative effects of peak oil minimized.

Life path

After his studies (1954) and doctorate (1957) at Oxford (St Paul's School and Wadham College) Campbell worked for various large oil companies from 1957, including a. Texaco , BP , and Amoco . In his professional life, he reviewed exploration opportunities in Papua New Guinea, Central and South America, the North Sea and continental Europe. From 1989 he worked as a freelance consultant for a variety of oil companies, government agencies and think tanks.

Since the end of the 1990s, he has been known with the repeated prediction that the peak of global oil production is currently imminent or has already been exceeded. The associated gradual oil shortage would then lead to a rapid and drastic increase in the price of oil products and especially fuels.

Campbell now lives in retirement in the Irish coastal village of Ballydehob and gives lectures around the world on the subject of peak oil. In 2002 he published his book Oil Change! , which outlines the future of petroleum and energy supply.

background

Campbell relies on the considerations of Marion King Hubbert , according to which production from an oil field follows logistical distribution . Hubbert had already in 1956 the peak ( peak predicted) for the United States correctly on in 1971 and hired as reflections on a global peak. Campbell bases his prognoses on his own calculations of the world-wide oil reserves, whereby he makes strong discounts in particular compared to the official figures of the OPEC states and accuses them of making their figures much nicer for political and economic reasons.

For the first time Campbell had predicted the peak for 1988, and later postponed this target further and further. In 2007 it assumed a high point in 2011. His earlier estimates of global production, such as when the production rate peaked, have repeatedly proven to be overly pessimistic. In 1988, for example, he predicted production of less than 50 million barrels per day for 2007, in fact it was 85.

Campbell vigorously opposes the assumption that oil production can be expanded at will and indefinitely if enough money and technology are used. After global production could no longer be significantly expanded since 2003 despite increasing demand and constantly rising prices, Campbell's statements are attracting increasing attention. Campbell's scenario of the imminent 'peak' is no longer considered absurd, at least since the warnings of the International Energy Agency IEA (2008).

Estimated peak oil Release Date maximum source
1989 1989
2003 1998
2005 conv. Oil
2010 incl. Unconv. Oil * 		2000
2004-2011 2002 Nemesis
2005 conv. Oil
2010 incl. Unconv. Oil * 		2006 66 conv. Oil
90 incl. Unconv. oil
2005 conv. Oil
2008 incl. Unconv. Oil * 		2008 66 conv. Oil
83 incl. Unconv. oil

literature

  • Colin J. Campbell, Jean H. Laherrère: The End of Cheap Oil . In: Scientific American , March 1998, pp. 78-83
  • Colin J. Campbell, Frauke Liesenborghs, Jörg Schindler, Werner Zittel: Oil change! The end of the petroleum age and the setting of the course for the future . German Taschenbuch-Verlag, Munich 2002.

Web links

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ Biography of Colin Campbell energycrisis.org
  2. ^ CJ Campbell: Oil Crisis . Brentwood, Essex 2005, p. 227 ff.
  3. ↑ deutschebp.de (PDF)
  4. ↑ hubbertpeak.com
  5. ↑ 'Nemesis', in a contribution in ASPO / ODAC Newsletter, Issue 15, March 2002. This study generates a range for the dates of peak production, based on cumulative production to-date; plus reserves and 'net discovery' data from Campbell and BP's Schollnberger. This approach avoids the need to use specific estimates of 'ultimate', but yields the approximate 'equivalent ultimates' listed in the table. Quoted from: oildepletion.org ( Memento from April 25, 2016 in the Internet Archive )
  6. ↑ aspo-ireland.org ( Memento from August 2, 2007 in the Internet Archive ) (PDF)
  7. ↑ aspo-ireland.org ( Memento of September 8, 2008 in the Internet Archive ) (PDF)
personal data
SURNAME Campbell, Colin J.
ALTERNATIVE NAMES Campbell, Colin John
BRIEF DESCRIPTION English geologist
DATE OF BIRTH 1931
PLACE OF BIRTH Berlin