Appeal to Probability

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Appeal to Probability ( Engl. For "appeal to the probability"; also: Appeal to Possibility ., English for "appeal to the way") is a logical fallacy , which is that of the acceptance or the fact that the If an event is possible or probable , the conclusion is drawn that this event will actually occur or has occurred in the case under discussion.

Examples

“There is a dark cloud in the sky. Dark clouds herald rain. It will rain here today. "

“In the universe there are billions of galaxies with billions of stars. So there has to be another planet with intelligent life. "

“The chance of winning the lottery is one in a million. A million tickets were sold. Someone must have won. "

“There are a lot of hackers who distribute worms on the internet . If you use the internet without a firewall , sooner or later you will inevitably be hacked. "

Brittany: I didn't apply to any other university besides Harvard .
Casey: Do you think this is a good idea? You only have a GPA grade of 2.0, your SAT score is pretty bad and, to be honest, most people think that you are not particularly bright.
Brittany: Are you saying that it is impossible for me to be accepted?
Casey: Not impossible , but ...
Brittany: Shut up then.

Appeal to Probability in Ancient Rhetoric

As Kenneth Seeskin has pointed out, the appeal to probability appears as a rhetorical device already prominently in Gorgias ' defense of the Palamedes (roughly around 400 BC). Palamedes had been wrongly accused of high treason and stoned. Instead of presenting evidence of Palamedes' innocence, Gorgias has argued in his discourse that Palamedes could not be guilty because he could not have lived with such a horrible act. The mere possibility that a heavy burden of guilt would have prevented Palamedes from continuing to live becomes an unequivocal certainty here.

As Seeskin explains below, it is very easy for a skilled speaker to present any event as likely or unlikely and then to suggest the wrong conclusion that it will (will not) actually occur. When a speaker invokes the likelihood or possibility in such a context, it is not to provide new information to his audience, but to persuade them to make a judgment based on the prejudices they already have. In order to establish a fact, one must provide evidence; on the other hand, to establish a mere probability or possibility, the speaker only needs to tell a story or a joke.

Appeal to Probability and Murphy's Law

Murphy's Law and Sod's Law ironically turn a special case of the Appeal to Probability - namely the prediction of the failure of a company through human error - into a pessimistic wisdom .

Web links

Individual evidence

  1. ^ A b Appeal to Possibility. Retrieved July 12, 2020 .
  2. ^ Types of Logical Fallacies. Retrieved July 12, 2020 .
  3. ^ David McCandless: Knowledge Is Beautiful: Impossible Ideas, Invisible Patterns, Hidden Connections - Visualized . Harper, New York 2014, ISBN 978-0-06-218822-9 , pp. 27 ( limited preview in Google Book search).
  4. ^ Rhetorical Fallacies. Retrieved June 12, 2020 .
  5. ^ Appeal to probability. Retrieved July 12, 2020 .
  6. ↑ Kenneth Seeskin: Dialogue and Discovery. A Study in Socratic Method . State University of New York Press, Albany 1987, ISBN 978-0-88706-337-4 , pp. 56 f . ( limited preview in Google Book search).
  7. ↑ Kenneth Seeskin: Dialogue and Discovery. A Study in Socratic Method . State University of New York Press, Albany 1987, ISBN 978-0-88706-337-4 , pp. 57 ( limited preview in Google Book search).