Demographic dividend

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In demographics and economics, the demographic dividend describes the possible economic benefit that can be achieved through the development-related change in the age structure of a state.

The term was coined by David Bloom and David Canning from Harvard University .

background

A demographic dividend can occur in particular when mortality, and especially child mortality, has fallen, but fertility has remained high for at least a while, as is the case, for example, in the early years of the baby boomer generation. The situation that presents itself when the relevant generation enters working age and leads to a reduction in the dependency ratio is referred to by some authors as the demographic bonus . This situation offers the potential to actually reap a demographic dividend, but at the same time harbors risks if it is not possible to derive economic benefits from it. The birth surplus of the baby boomer generation is partly blamed for mass unemployment and underemployment .

The economic dividend is also used as an explanatory model for the economic success of the Asian tiger states .

The OECD highlights the following factors as a prerequisite for achieving a demographic dividend:

  1. a quantitatively and qualitatively high level of education,
  2. a labor market with low unemployment ,
  3. a suitable macroeconomic environment,
  4. an opening to the outside and
  5. a high level of social cohesion .

A demographic dividend can benefit different groups of people or institutions: for example the previous generation (e.g. in the form of higher pensions per person), the large generation itself (e.g. in the form of savings installments or the formation of reserves due to low liabilities for the older generation ), Investors (e.g. profits due to affluent demand from working consumers or savings due to wage pressure due to wide supply on the labor market), the state (e.g. debt reduction through higher tax revenues and lower social spending on inactive people) or a Combination of these. Social and legal framework conditions play an essential role in the question of the distribution of a demographic dividend.

See also

literature

Used literature
  • David Bloom, David Canning, Jaypee Sevilla: The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change. (Population Matters Series). Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, California 2003, ISBN 0-8330-3373-5 .
further reading
  • Fang Cai: Beyond Demographic Dividends (Series on Chinese Economics Research). World Scientific, 2014, ISBN 978-981-4520-87-4 . (English)
  • Chetan Agrawal: Demographic Dividend or Disaster: Indian Labor in the 21st Century. Lambert Academic Publishing, 2013, ISBN 978-3-8465-5905-5 . (English)
  • Tran Kanh: Demographic Dividend and Its Economic Implications in Vietnam: Opportunities and Challenges. Lambert Academic Publishing, 2012, ISBN 978-3-659-21638-1 . (English)
  • Neelanjana Pandey: Age Structural Transition and Economic Growth in India: Consequences on Demographic Dividend. VDM Verlag, 2010, ISBN 978-3-639-28362-4 . (English)

Web links

Individual evidence

  1. ^ A b David Bloom, David Canning, Jaypee Sevilla: The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change. (Population Matters Series). Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, California 2003, ISBN 0-8330-3373-5 . Quoted from: Masche Klein, Simone Sieler (editor): The demographic dividend - a growth opportunity for developing countries. In: Development Aid Compact. No. 9. KfW Development Bank, November 19, 2010, accessed on May 20, 2014 .
  2. ↑ a b OECD: The creative society of the 21st century. OECD Publishing, 2000, ISBN 92-64-18770-7 , pp. 42-45.
  3. ↑ Lilli Sippel, Tanja Kiziak, Franziska Woellert, Reiner Klingholz : How a young population can enable development. Berlin Institute for Population and Development, accessed on May 20, 2014 .
  4. ^ Reinhard Bispinck, Gerhard Bosch, Klaus Hofemann, Gerhard Naegele (eds.): Social policy and welfare state: Festschrift for Gerhard Bäcker. Springer, 2012, ISBN 978-3-531-19024-2 , p. 150.