European Storm Forecast Experiment
European Storm Forecast Experiment ( ESTOFEX ) (in German " European Storm Forecast Experiment ") is a European organization made up of several members. According to its own information, it is financed through donations. ESTOFEX has neither the function nor the responsibility of warning services such as B. the German Weather Service or the Severe Weather Center , but only gives a rough overview of where in Europe severe weather could occur. Although ESTOFEX has no financial sponsors, the European Cooperation for Lightning Detection is a sponsor, as this organization passes on its data on thunderstorms and lightning to ESTOFEX free of charge. The ESTOFEX service has existed in this form since 2002.
Europe map and forecasts
ESTOFEX is mainly known for its Internet offer with a map of Europe, on which the individual areas are shown with different colors and lines of different thickness, in which the meteorologists expect severe weather. The validity date is indicated on the top of the card ("valid ..."). This includes the date of issue and the creator. Please note that the times given are UTC , i.e. CET -1h or CEST -2h. The output of the different levels depends on the probability of at least one storm within a radius of 40 km. Level 1 (orange lines) means over 5% probability of a storm, level 2 (red lines) over 15% and level 3 (purple lines) over 15% for an extreme storm. In addition, thin or thick yellow lines can be drawn; the thin ones stand for a 15% probability of a lightning bolt in the named area, the thick ones for a 50% probability. The date of issue, the expiry date and the "Forecaster" are again listed under the card. This is followed by a brief explanation of which phenomena can occur in which area. This is explained in detail below so that you can find out about the weather for yourself. In most weather conditions, the forecasts and the map are issued at very short notice (often the day before). Sometimes, however, special storms are also announced a long time in advance in so-called "extended forecasts". In the sub-area "verification", the verifications created by ESTOFEX can be viewed. According to ESTOFEX, a storm ("severe weather") means either hail over 2 cm in diameter, heavy gusts of wind (10 Bft ) or heavy rain (over 60 mm), and an extreme storm ("extremely severe weather") hail over 5 cm or hurricane gusts (12 Bft).