Ecological Mismatch

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The match / mismatch hypothesis (MMH) in ecology states that the reproductive success of many species in nature depends on the life cycle of the species, in particular the reproductive time, coinciding with the maximum food supply. The food supply (vegetation or lower species in the food web) fluctuates over the course of the year ( phenology ) and generally depends in a decisive way on weather events and the climate. The species were therefore evolutionarily adapted in such a way that strategies were formed to produce the offspring at a point in time that fits the food supply as closely as possible, using timers such as the length of the day, for example. If the life cycle and peak of the food supply do not match (mismatch), reproductive success decreases.

Original hypothesis: fish species recruitment rate

The hypothesis was first put forward by David Cushing in 1969 and expanded in 1990. Cushing tried to explain why different vintages of fish species are so rich in individuals. He attributed this to either matching (match) or inappropriate (mismatch) times when the eggs were laid in relation to the frequency of plankton as the crucial food source of the fish larvae. Cushing's hypothesis led to intensive research, which was able to confirm his assumptions in many cases, although there is still a great need for research, for example regarding direct temperature effects.

Effects related to climate change

The hypothesis has become particularly topical due to climate change , because it can be assumed here that in evolutionary times, previously reliable timers no longer lead to optimal timing. This leads, for example, to migratory birds arriving too early or too late in the breeding habitat, which in turn reduces their breeding success. In extreme cases, this can result in the extinction of species. Examples of the effect are:

  • In the caribou , the time when the young are born is controlled by the length of the day, while the rate of production of the plants they feed on is directly dependent on temperature. An increasing mismatch has been observed here for several years.
  • In the case of the great snow goose , the chick survival rate decreases because the food quality of the grasses, their most important food resource, declines during the rearing period due to climate change (although the overall growth performance of the grasses has actually increased).

Individual evidence

  1. ^ DH Cushing (1990): Plankton Production and Year-class Strength in Fish Populations: an Update of the Match / Mismatch Hypothesis. Advances in Marine Biology Volume 26: 249-293. doi : 10.1016 / S0065-2881 (08) 60202-3
  2. ^ Gregory Beaugrand, Keith M. Brander, J. Alistair Lindley, Sami Souissi, Philip C. Reid (2003): Plankton effect on cod recruitment in the North Sea. Nature Vol. 426: 661-663.
  3. Benjamin J. Laurel, Thomas P. Hurst, and Lorenzo Ciannelli (2011): An experimental examination of temperature interactions in the match-mismatch hypothesis for Pacific cod larvae. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 68 (1): 51-61. doi : 10.1139 / F10-130
  4. Nils Chr. Stenseth, Atle Mysterud, Geir Otter sen, James W. Hurrell, Kung-Sik Chan, Mauricio Lima (2002): Ecological Effects of Climate Fluctuations. Science 297: 1292-1296. doi : 10.1126 / science.1071281
  5. N. Saino, R. Ambrosini, D. Rubolini, J. von Hardenberg, A. Provenzale, K. Hüppop, O. Hüppop, A. Lehikoinen, E. Lehikoinen, K. Rainio, M. Romano, L. Sokolov: Climate warming, ecological mismatch at arrival and population decline in migratory birds. In: Proceedings. Biological sciences / The Royal Society. Volume 278, number 1707, March 2011, pp. 835-842, doi : 10.1098 / rspb.2010.1778 , PMID 20861045 , PMC 3049050 (free full text).
  6. Eric Post & Mads C. Forchhammer (2008): Climate change reduces reproductive success of an Arctic herbivore through trophic mismatch. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Series B 363: 2369-2375. doi : 10.1098 / rstb.2007.2207
  7. Climate Change and the Ecological Mismatch Between Greater Snow Goose Breeding and Plant Phenology ( Memento of the original dated May 5, 2015 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. at naagconference.com, accessed May 4, 2015  @1@ 2Template: Webachiv / IABot / www.naagconference.com
  8. ^ Madeleine Doiron: Impacts des changements climatiques sur les relations plantes-herbivores dans l'Arctique. Thèse, Universitè Laval, 2014. PDF