Homo S @ piens

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Homo S @ piens ( English original title: The Age of Spiritual Machines ) is a book by Raymond Kurzweil published in 1999 , which mainly deals with artificial intelligence (AI) and other future- oriented technologies.

The subtitle “Life in the 21st Century - What Remains of Humans?” Sums up the influence that AI will have on the future development of mankind, according to author Ray Kurzweil. The English subtitle (When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence, German: When computers surpass people in terms of intelligence) refers to the topic of super intelligence , for whose vision Kurzweil is now famous.

content

The book is divided into three parts, as well as a prologue and an epilogue . The subjects of this book include artificial intelligence , superintelligence , nanotechnology , neurotechnology , and quantum mechanics .

structure

  • Prologue: A relentless streak of luck
  • Part I: A closer look at the past
    • Chapter 1: The Law of Time and Chaos
    • Chapter 2: The Intelligence of Evolution
    • Chapter 3: Of Consciousness and Machines
    • Chapter 4: A New Form of Intelligence on Earth
    • Chapter 5: Context and Knowledge
  • Part II: Preparing the Present
    • Chapter 6: Building New Brains ...
    • Chapter 7: ... and body
    • Chapter 8: 1999
  • Part III: Looking to the Future
    • Chapter 9: 2009
    • Chapter 10: 2019
    • Chapter 11: 2029
    • Chapter 12: 2099
  • Epilogue: A look back at the rest of the universe
  • Timetable

Described forecasts

Forecasts for 2009

Kurzweil expected a computing capacity of one trillion arithmetic operations per second (1 teraflops ) for a US $ 1,000 personal computer (PC) and 20 petaflops for supercomputers in 2009 . Most people would use portable computers instead of conventional PCs, which were “considerably lighter and narrower than […] notebooks” from the late 1990s, and normally more than a dozen small computers (cell phones, pagers, etc.) would be carried with them.

Speech recognition and machine translation are almost completely mature, so that applications such as translating telephones are common and fewer and fewer keyboards are required. Language - controlled assistants ( Language User Interfaces ) and intelligent software agents would be used for routine tasks, especially on the Internet. Virtual reality (VR) is available in audio and video in a quality that can no longer be distinguished from nature, and tactile applications are in the prototype phase. Rotating storage media such as CDs and hard drives are outdated and are dying out. However, computers have not yet passed the Turing test .

Aid devices for the disabled, such as navigation systems for the blind, are fully developed, and the paralyzed can regain their mobility with electronic orthopedic walking machines. Expert systems, VR training programs and telemedicine are widely used in medicine. Art is primarily created on the computer with the help of intelligent programs, and music, films and books are mainly distributed over the Internet.

Kurzweil also predicted an uninterrupted economic upswing and a sharp drop in prices for the first decade of the 21st century, based on the IT industry.

Forecasts for 2019

In 2019, Kurzweil expected a $ 1,000 PC to outperform a human brain. The total computing capacity of all computers should be equal to that of humanity. Computers are integrated almost everywhere (e.g. in clothing, in furniture) and it will be possible to surf the Internet everywhere via retina displays - the virtual world would partially merge with the real one. Pin-sized cameras are common everywhere.

Computers would only be operated by voice control , keyboards are no longer used. Most of the transactions were done through a computer. Data cables would largely disappear, and the flash memory is used as a data storage - Standard . Three-dimensional nanotube lattice structures have become established in CPUs . Artificial neural networks and genetic algorithms would also find widespread use. Light, thin and high-resolution displays would replace paper ( see : Electronic paper ). The advancing technology has overtaken books and documents made of paper.

Non-invasive brain scans would allow scientists to determine the precise thought processes of the human brain. Nanotechnology is being assigned ever greater importance, the use of nanotechnology in manufacturing processes is becoming standard.

The learning will take place via virtual teachers. Most people would spend most of their time developing their skills and knowledge. The first neural implants would appear. Translation engines were routinely used in conversations.

Household robots would become affordable in everyday life. Computers take over driving the car - as a result, there are hardly any accidents. Some people have profound relationships with simulated personalities. In some cases, more rights for computer personalities would be demanded.

Kurzweil predicts a heyday of the global economy for this decade as well. A subsistence level for the lower class would be guaranteed.

expenditure