Climate dynamics

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Klio

Kliodynamics (derived from Klio , the muse of historiography ) is a new multidisciplinary research approach to mathematically model historical developments. Cliodynamics explores dynamic processes in history. There are points of contact with the theory of the long waves of economic history, which was coined by Nikolai Kondratiev , Joseph A. Schumpeter and Ernest Mandel .

Mathematically, long-term (“secular”) cycles of sociodemographic dynamics and very long-term (“thousand-year”) trends of the world system are modeled . The probability that a certain event will occur is calculated.

A literary template for this idea can be found as a psychohistory in the Foundation cycle (from 1942) by Isaac Asimov .

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Individual evidence

  1. ↑ Peter Turchin. Arise cliodynamics , 2008 Nature (3 July 2008)
  2. ^ Turchin P. Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2003; Turchin P., Korotayev A. Population Dynamics and Internal Warfare: A Reconsideration. Social Evolution & History 5/2 (2006): 112-147; Turchin P., Nefedov S. Secular Cycles. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009; Korotayev , A., Malkov, A., & Khaltourina, D. 2006b. Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends. Moscow: URSS. ISBN 5484005590 ; Korotayev , A. & Khaltourina D. 2006 Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends in Africa. Moscow: URSS. ISBN 5484005604 .
  3. ^ Tsirel, SV 2004. On the Possible Reasons for the Hyperexponential Growth of the Earth Population. Mathematical Modeling of Social and Economic Dynamics / Ed. by MG Dmitriev and AP Petrov, pp. 367-9. Moscow: Russian State Social University, 2004; Korotayev A., Malkov A., Khaltourina D. 2006. Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth. Moscow: URSS. ISBN 5-484-00414-4 ; Andrey Korotayev. The World System urbanization dynamics . History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies . Edited by Peter Turchin, Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev, and Victor C. de Munck. Moscow: KomKniga, 2006. ISBN 5-484-01002-0 . P. 44-62 etc.
  4. ↑ Markus Schleufe: Kliodynamiker: fortune tellers, only serious . In: The time . ISSN  0044-2070 ( zeit.de [accessed on January 28, 2016]).