Counterfactuality

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The term counterfactuality ( against the facts ) is a term used in philosophy and philosophy of science to denote the contrast between assertions or thought models and reality . Counterfactual statements, d. H. those that contradict reality can also simply be classified as "wrong" under certain conditions. For example, the claim that reducing the size of the ozone hole would solve the problem of air pollution can be described as "counterfactual".

Ignoring counterfactual models U. consciously individual phenomena of reality in order to be able to make structural statements (example: Homo oeconomicus ).

Counterfactual assumptions are often used to make hypotheses about possible course of events. An event that did not occur is postulated and the possible consequences are discussed.

Example: How would German history have gone if Kaiser Friedrich had not died of throat cancer in 1888?

Such speculations have only heuristic value, however , since they cannot be proven.

philosophy

As counterfactual conditionals are in the epistemology dispositional states referred to, which are used as causal relationships in theories such. B. That water would not have boiled under all other conditions if it had not been heated.

Immanuel Kant's justification of the moral law is considered counterfactual . In the Critique of Pure Reason he had shown that ethics cannot be justified by natural laws. Nevertheless, in the foundations of the metaphysics of morals, he assumed that humans have the freedom to make ethical decisions. This postulate is a counterfactual requirement of his ethics.

Ludwig Wittgenstein's reasoning for his private language argument is also counterfactual . He took the view that the meaning of language only arises through its use, that is, intersubjectively. He did not consider a private language developed by an isolated individual who has no communicative access to other people possible because language is based on rules that can only arise intersubjectively.

An example of counterfactuality is the "ideal speech situation" in the discourse theory of truth of Jürgen Habermas , who also in the theory of communicative action plays a central role. Likewise, the consensus in its original state in the theory of justice by John Rawls is called counterfactual, because it cannot be implemented in factual society because the persons in this thought experiment lack knowledge of the factual conditions.

Another context for the use of counterfactuality is the definition of dispositional properties . Gilbert Ryle discussed the concept of truth in relation to dispositional properties that are represented in (possibly) counterfactual conditional clauses. That the reality of such properties, e.g. B. the solubility of sugar in water, only arises when it occurs, was already discussed by Aristotle .

Counterfactual evidence

This term can be used in economic science if an investigation in the sense of a thought experiment assumes that at a certain point in time, contrary to what actually happened, another economic policy decision would have been made. However, this is only permissible if, in addition to the thought experiment, the main conclusions can be clearly presented to experts .

See also

literature

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ Peter Baumann: Epistemology. Metzler, Stuttgart / Weimar 2006, p. 242
  2. ↑ Jürgen Mittelstraß (Ed.): Encyclopedia Philosophy and Philosophy of Science. Metzler / Pöschel, Stuttgart 2005, p. 461
  3. ↑ Julian Nida-Rümelin : Universality and particularity  ( page no longer available , search in web archives )  Info: The link was automatically marked as defective. Please check the link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. , P. 15@1@ 2Template: Toter Link / www.philosophie.uni-muenchen.de  
  4. ^ Peter Winkler: Empirical economic research . Springer, Vienna and New York 1997 p. 230.