State election in North Rhine-Westphalia 2012 / polls

from Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Most of the polls for the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia in 2012 showed a majority in favor of continuing the red-green coalition of Prime Minister Hannelore Kraft. Compared to the previous election , larger gains were predicted for the Social Democrats, while losses were predicted for the CDU . Ultimately, the CDU performed significantly worse on election day than the polls had indicated. The FDP passed the five percent hurdle in the election polls in the final spurt of the election campaign . The Die Linke , however, had, according to the results of opinion research small probability of a re-entry into the state parliament. A slightly worse election result than in 2010, the polls predicted the Greens . For the pirates , they forecast the greatest gain in percentage points and safe entry into the North Rhine-Westphalian state parliament .

The first representative survey was carried out by the opinion research institute Infratest dimap immediately after the state parliament was dissolved on March 14, 2012 . A forecast published by YouGov on the same day reflected the political mood before the failure of the red-green minority government.

For the Sunday question, the institutes for opinion polls gave the following results:

Institute date CDU SPD Green FDP left Pirates Others
INFO GmbH 05/11/2012 33% 38% 11% 5% 4% 8th % 1 %
YouGov 05/09/2012 30% 37% 12% 6% 3.5% 8.5% 3%
YouGov 05/07/2012 31% 37% 11% 5% 4% 9% 3%
Research group elections 05/04/2012 31% 38% 11% 6% 3% 8th % 3%
Infratest dimap 05/03/2012 30% 38.5% 11% 6% 4% 7.5% 3%
YouGov 05/03/2012 31% 36% 11% 5% 4% 10% 3%
Forsa 05/02/2012 32% 37% 10% 5% 3% 10% 3%
Emnid 04/27/2012 32% 38% 10% 5% 4% 9% 2%
Infratest dimap 04/22/2012 31% 39% 11% 4% 3% 9% 3%
Research group elections 04/20/2012 34% 37% 11% 4% 3% 8th % 3%
YouGov 04/18/2012 32% 36% 13% 4% 4% 8th % 3%
INFO GmbH 04/14/2012 29% 40% 10% 3% 3% 11% 4%
Infratest dimap 03/25/2012 32% 40% 12% 4% 3% 5% 4%
Forsa 03/21/2012 33% 39% 11% 4% 4% 6% 3%
Research group elections 03/15/2012 34% 37% 13% 2% 4% 6% 4%
Infratest dimap 03/14/2012 34% 38% 14% 2% 4% 5% 3%
YouGov 03/14/2012 33% 33% 17% 2% 5% 7% 3%
Infratest dimap 02/26/2012 35% 35% 17% 2% 3% 5% 3%
YouGov 02/08/2012 33% 31% 15% 3% 6% 7% 5%
YouGov 01/19/2012 31% 33% 17% 3% 5% 8th % 3%

Analyzes by the forecast portal election.de for the 128 constituencies predicted that either the CDU or the SPD would win all 128 direct mandates:

Institute date CDU SPD
election.de 05/12/2012 39 89
election.de 05/05/2012 38 90
election.de 04/28/2012 41 87
election.de 04/21/2012 54 74
election.de 04/14/2012 39 89
election.de April 7, 2012 46 82

The question of whom the citizens entitled to vote in North Rhine-Westphalia would vote in a direct election to the Prime Minister was answered as follows, according to the survey institutes:

Institute date Hannelore Kraft (SPD) Norbert Röttgen (CDU)
INFO GmbH 05/11/2012 53% 22%
YouGov 05/07/2012 46% 19%
Research group elections 05/04/2012 63% 27%
Infratest dimap 05/03/2012 58% 26%
Forsa 05/02/2012 56% 25%
Infratest dimap 04/22/2012 58% 30%
Research group elections 04/20/2012 55% 32%
INFO GmbH 04/14/2012 49% 21%
Infratest dimap 03/25/2012 57% 28%
Forsa 03/21/2012 56% 26%
Research group elections 03/15/2012 54% 30%
Infratest dimap 03/14/2012 57% 26%
YouGov 03/14/2012 42% 21%
Infratest dimap 02/26/2012 51% 29%
YouGov 01/19/2012 36% 17%

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t surveys of North Rhine-Westphalia. If there were state elections next Sunday ... Wahlrecht.de, Wilko Zicht and Matthias Cantow, accessed on March 14, 2012 .
  2. ↑ Quick survey in North Rhine-Westphalia: Kraft increases, Röttgen loses. Süddeutsche Zeitung Digitale Medien GmbH, Süddeutsche Zeitung GmbH, March 15, 2012, accessed on May 13, 2012 .
  3. ↑ Dietmar Neuerer: Handelsblatt survey NRW. A solo entertainer saves the FDP. Handelsblatt, May 11, 2012, accessed on May 11, 2012 (representative survey by the Berlin opinion research institute Info on behalf of Handelsblatt Online).
  4. ↑ Constituency forecast LTW North Rhine-Westphalia - as of May 12, 2012. election.de, Matthias Moehl, accessed on May 12, 2012 .
  5. ↑ Constituency forecast LTW North Rhine-Westphalia - as of 05/05/2012. election.de, Matthias Moehl, accessed on May 5, 2012 .
  6. ↑ Constituency forecast LTW North Rhine-Westphalia - as of April 28, 2012. election.de, Matthias Moehl, accessed on April 28, 2012 .
  7. ↑ constituency forecast LTW North Rhine-Westphalia - as of April 21, 2012. election.de, Matthias Moehl, accessed on April 22, 2012 .
  8. ↑ LTW North Rhine-Westphalia constituency forecast - as of April 14, 2012. election.de, Matthias Moehl, accessed on April 22, 2012 .
  9. ↑ LTW North Rhine-Westphalia constituency forecast - as of April 7, 2012. election.de, Matthias Moehl, accessed on April 13, 2012 .
  10. ↑ Dietmar Neuerer: Handelsblatt survey: NRW voters drop Röttgen. Handelsblatt, May 10, 2012, accessed on May 13, 2012 (survey by the opinion research institute Info on behalf of Handelsblatt Online).
  11. ↑ New survey: Liberals also in NRW. BILD, May 7, 2012, accessed on May 7, 2012 (representative survey by the YouGov institute on behalf of the "Bild-Zeitung").
  12. ↑ Narrow majority for red-green - FDP at six percent. (No longer available online.) ZDF, May 4, 2012, formerly in the original ; Retrieved on May 4, 2012 (representative survey by the Institute Research Group Elections on behalf of ZDF).  ( Page no longer available , search in web archives )  Info: The link was automatically marked as defective. Please check the link according to the instructions and then remove this notice.@1@ 2Template: Toter Link / www.zdf.de  
  13. ↑ ARD DeutschlandTrend: Red-Green remains clearly ahead in NRW. ARD, May 3, 2012, accessed on May 3, 2012 (representative survey by the Infratest dimap institute on behalf of ARD).
  14. ↑ It will be tight for red-green in NRW. Forsa, May 2, 2012, accessed on May 2, 2012 (representative survey by the Forsa Institute on behalf of Stern).
  15. ↑ Country trend. North Rhine-WestphaliaTREND April 2012. (No longer available online.) Society for Trend and Election Research, April 22, 2012, archived from the original on April 28, 2012 ; Retrieved on April 23, 2012 (representative survey by the Infratest dimap institute on behalf of WDR for WESTPOL). Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. @1@ 2Template: Webachiv / IABot / www.infratest-dimap.de
  16. ↑ NRW: majority for red-green. ZDF, April 20, 2012, accessed on April 20, 2012 (representative survey by the Institute Research Group Elections on behalf of ZDF).
  17. ↑ Significant shifts in the political mood. ARD, March 25, 2012, accessed on March 25, 2012 (representative survey by the Infratest dimap institute on behalf of ARD).
  18. ↑ Kraft is much more popular than Röttgen. Stern, March 21, 2012, accessed on March 21, 2012 (representative survey by the Forsa Institute on behalf of Stern / RTL).
  19. ↑ Clear majority for red-green. ZDF, March 15, 2012, accessed on March 16, 2012 (representative survey by the Institute Research Group Elections on behalf of ZDF).
  20. ↑ a b Clear majority for red-green. ARD, March 14, 2012, accessed on March 14, 2012 (representative survey by the Infratest dimap institute on behalf of ARD).
  21. ↑ CDU and SPD in NRW on par. (No longer available online.) Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger, March 14, 2012, archived from the original on September 6, 2012 ; retrieved on March 14, 2012 (representative survey by the YouGov institute on behalf of Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger and Sat 1 / NRW). Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. @1@ 2Template: Webachiv / IABot / www.ksta.de