Food price crisis 2007-2008

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As food price crisis 2007-2008 which is price increase of food products referred between 2007 and 2008.

According to estimates by the FAO, at least 75 million additional people worldwide went hungry as a result of the rise in prices in 2007, including 41 million in Asia and the Pacific and 24 million in sub-Saharan Africa. The US Department of Agriculture estimated the effect of the higher prices in 2007 on 30 million additional starving people in 70 developing countries analyzed. Social and political unrest broke out in over 60 countries, some of which were violent.

Price history

FAO Food Price Index 1990–2012

Grains in particular (increase to 238% of the average price from 2002 to 2004 according to FAO ), dairy products (220%) and oils (227%) rose in price up to 2008. The prices of the four main foods rice , corn , wheat and soybeans tripled between autumn 2005 and mid-2008. A rapid increase was recorded in 2007 and price peaks were reached in winter 2007 and spring 2008. In developing countries , there were sometimes increases in consumer prices of up to 40%. In the course of 2008, prices then temporarily fell again.

causes

Due to the interactions of various influences, it is difficult to identify the direct causes of the price increase. In addition to environmental factors , the following causes, which jointly contributed to the price increase, were named in the public and scientific discussion:

  • the growth of the world population .
  • the changed diet in some emerging countries . For example, meat consumption in China has increased significantly - which is why more agricultural products are used to feed animals for slaughter.
  • decreased stocks. In China, for example, rice cultivation is less lucrative than z. B. the cultivation of fruits such as bamboo or pineapple, there is also less agricultural land due to industrialization .
  • the rise in energy prices and the associated increase in the cost of fertilizers (which often require oil or natural gas in production)
  • of agricultural trade and the appropriate policy . Since the 1980s, many developing countries have become food importers. In this context, z. B. the development organization Bread for the World (through the structural adjustment programs) unconditional market opening in developing countries for food imports from industrialized countries. In this context, the subsidies for food production in industrialized countries, which promote food exports to developing countries, are also criticized. Moseley, Carney and Becker, for example, analyzed trade policy and the food crisis in Gambia , Ivory Coast and Mali . The urban areas in Mali were comparatively little affected by the food crisis, which the authors attribute to the fact that Mali produces a larger proportion of its rice itself instead of importing it.
  • Competition for land : The sharp increase in the use of grain for the production of biofuels in the last few years (particularly corn in the United States).
  • Food speculation is also cited as an important causal factor. According to Welthungerhilfe and Oxfam as well as individual experts from UNCTAD and the World Bank , the crisis was mainly due to speculative transactions in food. Several experts at a hearing in the Bundestag also shared this assessment.

In particular, the effects of biofuel production and food speculation are controversial. Tang (Princeton University) and Xiong (Renmin University) come to the conclusion in their study that the financialization of the commodity markets also explains the large price increases. The prices on the non-energy raw material markets were influenced not only by demand and supply, but also by strategies of financial investors. A study by the Bank of Japan also sees financial effects as a contributing factor in influencing prices. According to a study by the Government Office for Science from 2011, however, poor data quality makes it impossible to methodologically prove or refute the influence of speculation. Although speculation could theoretically have an impact on prices, a review of the potential mechanisms suggests that speculation is unlikely to make a significant contribution to the food price crisis. A preliminary study by Michael Schmitz (Institute for Agricultural Policy and Market Research at the University of Giessen) on behalf of the Association of the German Biofuel Industry and the Union for the Promotion of Oil and Protein Plants comes to the conclusion that in general neither speculation in financial markets nor the production of biofuels for responsible for the great rise in food prices. In the food price study for Deutsche Welthungerhilfe by Hans-Heinrich Bass (Bremen University of Applied Sciences) it is emphasized that the data required for an exact measurement of the influence are difficult to find. However, it cannot be denied that there are negative influences from financial speculation. DIW researchers estimated in 2011 that global liquidity accounts for around 20 percent of the change in food prices. There are other factors that influence the price more strongly, but increasing demand from financial investors also drives the price.

Reactions

The US futures exchange regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), proposed, as a preventive measure against instabilities and price bubbles on the commodity markets, to set position limits in the financial market for large players from outside the industry.

In the food price study by Welthungerhilfe of 2011, among other things, reporting obligations on some financial activities, the introduction of a financial transaction tax and a fairer world trade policy were proposed. By strengthening the bargaining power of food producers in developing countries vis-à-vis the seed producers and international marketers (thus a larger share of the income for producers), incentives are to be created to expand food production.

Some developing countries have changed as a consequence of the crisis, its agricultural policy, Malawi z. B. increased food production through subsidized cheap fertilizers. However, there were hardly any international reactions to the crisis, for example with regard to regulation against price fluctuations or for larger agricultural aid, as the German head of the World Food Program , Ralf Südhoff, criticized.

literature

Individual evidence

  1. ^ The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2008
  2. ↑ Food Security Assessment, 2007. ERS, USDA, 2008. ( Memento from June 1, 2011 in the Internet Archive )
  3. ^ J. von Braun: Food and financial crises. IFPRI, Washington, DC 2008, p. 6.
  4. ^ FAO Food Price Index. ( Memento from August 30, 2013 in the Internet Archive ) Status: August 2013.
  5. ↑ a b Foresight. The Future of Food and Farming (2011). Final Project Report. ( Memento of January 5, 2012 in the Internet Archive ) The Government Office for Science, London 2011, p. 107. (PDF; 9.4 MB)
  6. ↑ a b Food prices endanger the fight against poverty. ( Memento of August 7, 2011 in the Internet Archive ) FTD, April 2008.
  7. ↑ Rice is getting scarce. In: WOZ . No. 21/2006, May 25, 2006.
  8. ↑ Is there enough for everyone? Analysis of Bread for the World, November 2011.
  9. ^ WG Moseley, J. Carney, L. Becker: Neoliberal Policy, Rural Livelihoods and Urban Food Security in West Africa: A Comparative Study of The Gambia, Côte d'Ivoire and Mali. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences . 107, 13, 2010, pp. 5774-5779.
  10. ↑ Welthungerhilfe food study ( Memento from December 11, 2011 in the Internet Archive )
  11. ↑ Oxfam Fact Sheet (PDF; 200 kB)
  12. ^ UNCTAD: The global economic crisis: systemic failures and multilateral remedies. Chapter III: Managing the financialization of commodity futures trading. 2009, p. 38.
  13. ↑ John Baffes, Tassos Haniotis: Placing the 2006/08 Commodity Price Boom into Perspective. Policy Research Working Paper, The World Bank Development Prospects Group, July 2010, p. 20.
  14. ↑ video recording ; Statement by Dirk Müller (PDF; 722 kB)
  15. ↑ Hans-Heinrich Bass: Financial speculation and food prices: Notes on the state of research. (= Study for foodwatch e.V., materials from the scientific focus "Globalization of the World Economy". Volume 42). University of Bremen, 2013.
  16. ^ Ke Tang, Wei Xiong: Index Investment and the Financialization of Commodities. (PDF; 288 kB). In: Financial Analyst Journal. Vol. 68, Number 6, 2012, p. 72.
  17. ^ Recent Surge in Global Commodity Prices. (PDF; 447 kB). In: Bank of Japan Review. March 2011.
  18. ↑ Institute for Agricultural Policy and Market Research: Determining factors for the level and volatility of agricultural commodity prices on international markets. Implications for world food and policy making (PDF; 3.4 MB) , University of Gießen, 2012.
  19. ↑ Welthungerhilfe food study 2011.
  20. ↑ Welthungerhilfe Food Study 2011. Conclusion on p. 91.
  21. ↑ You don't play with sugar. on: taz.de , April 2011.
  22. ↑ Welthungerhilfe Food Study 2011. p. 88.
  23. ↑ Welthungerhilfe Food Study 2011. pp. 91–92.
  24. ↑ The fear of hunger is back. ( Memento of January 8, 2011 in the Internet Archive ) FTD January 2011.